Al-Dhafra v Dubai United prediction · Pro League

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 16:59

Al-Dhafra 5–1 Dubai United DUBAI UNITED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dubai United win~~47%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.732

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.644

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dubai United win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Dubai United 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 31–22–47
1′KICK-OFF Al-Dhafra v Dubai United
34′We said Dubai United at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 59–23–18
34′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Othman Ramadan · Dubai United
34′PENALTY · 33' Al-Dhafra
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Al-Dhafra 1–0 Dubai United
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Dubai United win: 47% at kick-off, 18% now
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Al-Dhafra win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Dubai United win 18%)
35′Dominique Mendy scores for Al-Dhafra on 34′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 59–23–18
35′Dominique Mendy scores for Al-Dhafra on 33′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 59–23–18
36′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 59–24–17
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Dubai United win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
40′PENALTY · 38' Dubai United
41′40′: Willy Semedo on the scoresheet for Dubai United, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 29–32–40
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Al-Dhafra 1–1 Dubai United · Willy Semedo
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Dubai United win: 47% at kick-off, 40% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Dubai United win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Al-Dhafra win 29%)
42′Sory Kaba scores for Al-Dhafra on 41′. 1–1 · 29–32–39
43′⚽ GOAL · 41' Al-Dhafra 2–1 Dubai United · Sory Kaba (assist Samir De Souza)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Dubai United win: 47% at kick-off, 15% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Al-Dhafra win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Dubai United win 15%)
45′We said Dubai United at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–1 · 61–24–14
45′HALF-TIME Al-Dhafra 2–1 Dubai United
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Dubai United · On: Pape Guèye · Off: Hussain Abbas Juma
45′SECOND HALF Al-Dhafra 2–1 Dubai United
46′PENALTY · 38' Dubai United
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Dubai United · On: Mahmoud Dahoud · Off: Moustapha Name
50′48′: Sory Kaba on the scoresheet for Al-Dhafra. 2–1 · 63–24–13
50′We said Dubai United at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 3–1 · 87–10–3
50′⚽ GOAL · 48' Al-Dhafra 3–1 Dubai United · Sory Kaba
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Dubai United win: 47% at kick-off, 3% now
51′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 88–9–3
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Ezeckiel Noumonvi · Al-Dhafra
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Dubai United · On: Haris Seferović · Off: Jonas Naafo
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Al-Dhafra · On: Marcelinho · Off: Khaled Bawazir
69′Daraman Komari scores for Al-Dhafra on 68′. 3–1 · 94–5–1
71′5 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 99–1–0
71′⚽ GOAL · 68' Al-Dhafra 4–1 Dubai United · Daraman Komari (assist Sory Kaba)
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Dubai United · On: Cedrick Steve Nana Djeunou · Off: Willy Semedo
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Al-Dhafra · On: Karim El Berkaoui · Off: Sory Kaba
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Al-Dhafra · On: Arielson Sampaio·Galvao · Off: Mohamed Ibrahim Mohamed Alhammadi
88′16 shots for Dubai United, 10 the other way, and they still trail 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
92′Al-Dhafra ahead on 90′ through Arielson Sampaio·Galvao. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Al-Dhafra 5–1 Dubai United · Arielson Sampaio·Galvao
93′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Al-Dhafra · On: Adem Ben Fajria · Off: Mohamed El Khaloui
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Al-Dhafra · On: Vinicius Lima Serafim · Off: Ezeckiel Noumonvi
FTFULL TIME Al-Dhafra 5–1 Dubai United
FTAl-Dhafra 5–1 Dubai United · Dubai United win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dubai United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Dhafra 32%, draw 21%, Dubai United 47%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Al-Dhafra v Dubai UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Al-Dhafra win32%

Draw21%

Dubai United win47%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 14:05

RoundMatchday 6

VenueHamdan Bin Zayed Stadium

Line-ups

Al-Dhafra

4-4-2

Dubai United

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Dhafra

Dubai United

7Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · League Cup (United Arab Emirates)

Last match: 8 Oct · League Cup (United Arab Emirates)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Dubai United	5	−1	7
12	Al-Dhafra	5	−6	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al-Dhafra

4-4-2

44 A. Al Sayed

15 Abdullah Al Karbi

3 D. Koumare

33 Samir

6 E. Noumonvi

16 M. Alhammadi

88 D. Mendy

21 R. Djooh

11 M. El Khaloui

14 Khalid Bawazir

9 S. Kaba

Coach · P. Carteron

Substitutes

7 · Marcelinho

8 · Z. Mohammed

20 · L. Amesimeku

22 · Rayan Yaslam

1 · Mazin Saleh Zayid

5 · Mansor Al Harbi

17 · Eisa Houti

77 · A. Ben Fajria

95 · Karim El Berkaoui

80 · Rodriguinho

4 · Serafim

99 · Arielson

Dubai United

4-1-4-1

26 S. Leković

19 Hamid Yahya

15 A. Puric

3 O. Jamal

52 Hussain Abbas

25 M. Name

80 S. Babicka

5 A. Karimi

23 Jonas Naafo

10 Willy Semedo

49 E. Maouhoub

Coach · A. Pirlo

Substitutes

81 · M. Dahoud

88 · Habib Al Fardan

22 · Mohammed Yousuf Ghulam

7 · Pape Guèye

8 · Baidi Diakite

6 · Majid Surour

29 · C. Nana

13 · Inayat Noor

9 · H. Seferović

73 · M. Moraes

44 · Khalid Ali

77 · Bandar Al Ahbabi

Our number · dubai united winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

47% The market39%

Us47%

~~Market~~39%

We make Dubai United a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Dhafra v Dubai United~~1.56 – 1.94

~~Form · Pro League this season · since 15 Aug~~W1 D0 L4 · W2 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 7~~12 v 8

~~The market · Dubai United win~~39% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dubai United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Dhafra win	32%	35%	−3
Draw	21%	26%	−5
Dubai United win	47%	39%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	67%	56%	+11
Both teams to score	66%	59%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	86%	78%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	46%	34%	+12
Al-Dhafra or draw	53%	61%	−8
Al-Dhafra clean sheet	15%	–	–
Dubai United clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.1 6.1 5.8 3.7 1 5.0 9.0 8.6 5.6 2.8 2 3.8 6.9 6.6 4.3 2.1 3 3.6 3.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Dhafra down, Dubai United across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 945 Pro League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al-Dhafra at home: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Dubai United away: 2.33 scored, 3.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Al-Dhafra, 1.94 for Dubai United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ALD 2–1 DUB · DUB 3–0 ALD · ALD 1–0 DUB · DUB 1–3 ALD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Pro League this season · since 15 Aug

AL-DHAFRA

LLLLW1–3 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–1

DUBAI UNITED

LWWLD1–5 · 3–2 · 4–1 · 3–4 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Jazira	5	+9	13
2	Al Ain	5	+7	13
3	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	5	+5	10
4	Al-Wasl FC	5	+9	10
5	Ajman	5	−1	9
6	Al Wahda FC	5	+1	9
7	Sharjah FC	5	+3	9
8	Dubai United	5	−1	7
9	Al Nasr	5	−1	5
10	Al-Ittihad Kalba	5	−7	4
11	Khorfakkan	5	−7	4
12	Al-Dhafra	5	−6	3
13	Hatta SC	5	−6	3
14	Baniyas SC	5	−5	1