Al Ain v Ajman prediction · Pro League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al AinDrawAjman

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:10

Before kick-off · Match result · Al Ain 67%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Ain are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Ain 67%, draw 18%, Ajman 15%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Al Ain v AjmanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al Ain win67%

Draw18%

Ajman win15%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 14:10

RoundMatchday 7

VenueTahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Ain

Ajman

7Days since last match7

Last match: 22 Oct · Presidents Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Al Ain	6	+5	13
7	Ajman	6	−3	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al ain winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

67% The market73%

Us67%

~~Market~~73%

We make Al Ain a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Ain v Ajman~~2.36 – 1.03

~~Form · Pro League this season · since 14 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 9~~4 v 7

~~The market · Al Ain win~~73% · ours 67%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Ain win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 73% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Ain win	67%	73%	−6
Draw	18%	16%	+2
Ajman win	15%	11%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	66%	67%	−1
Both teams to score	58%	55%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	85%	84%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	44%	47%	−3
Al Ain or draw	85%	89%	−4
Al Ain clean sheet	36%	–	–
Ajman clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.6%

0123450 3.3 3.6 1 8.1 8.1 4.2 2 9.4 9.6 4.9 3 7.4 7.5 3.9 4 4.4 4.5 2.3 5 2.1 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Ain down, Ajman across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 952 Pro League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.5% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Ain at home: 3.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ajman away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.36 goals for Al Ain, 1.03 for Ajman. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALA 2–3 AJM · ALA 2–0 AJM · AJM 0–3 ALA · ALA 0–0 AJM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Pro League this season · since 14 Aug

AL AIN

WWWWDL4–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 0–2

AJMAN

WWLWLL3–2 · 4–3 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Jazira	6	+9	14
2	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	6	+7	13
3	Al-Wasl FC	6	+11	13
4	Al Ain	6	+5	13
5	Al Wahda FC	6	+2	12
6	Sharjah FC	6	+5	12
7	Ajman	6	−3	9
8	Al Nasr	6	+1	8
9	Dubai United	6	−5	7
10	Al-Dhafra	6	−2	6
11	Al-Ittihad Kalba	6	−7	5
12	Khorfakkan	6	−8	4
13	Hatta SC	6	−8	3
14	Baniyas SC	6	−7	1