Ajman v Sharjah FC prediction · Pro League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31

Ajman 1–3 Sharjah FC SHARJAH FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sharjah FC win~~44%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.475

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.413

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sharjah FC win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sharjah FC 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 32–24–44
1′KICK-OFF Ajman v Sharjah FC
11′A goal for Ajman on 11′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 57–22–20
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Ajman 1–0 Sharjah FC
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Sharjah FC win: 44% at kick-off, 20% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Ajman win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Sharjah FC win 20%)
12′We said Sharjah FC at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 1–0 · 58–22–20
16′We said Sharjah FC at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 58–23–19
31′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 61–23–16
36′We said Sharjah FC at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–24–14
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Sharjah FC win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sharjah FC · On: Ousmane Camara · Off: Lorran Lucas
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sharjah FC · On: Léo Azevedo · Off: Igor Coronado
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Ajman · On: Yassine Jabri · Off: Vitor Hugo Brenneisen Vargas
52′GOAL DISALLOWED · 49' Ismail Moumen · Ajman
53′We said Sharjah FC at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–23–9
56′GOAL DISALLOWED · 49' Yuri Matias · Ajman
58′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Léo Azevedo · Sharjah FC
65′62′: Ousmane Camara on the scoresheet for Sharjah FC. 1–0 · 73–21–5
65′We said Sharjah FC at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 22–51–27
65′⚽ GOAL · 62' Ajman 1–1 Sharjah FC · Ousmane Camara
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Sharjah FC win: 44% at kick-off, 27% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Ajman win 22%)
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Sharjah FC · On: Harib Abdalla Suhail · Off: Yahya Al-Ghassani
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Ajman · On: Mohammad Juma Eid · Off: Lithierry da Silva Neves
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Ajman · On: Victor Hugo Ramos de Souza · Off: Bilal Yousif
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Sharjah FC · On: Cheicka Doumbia · Off: Agner Moura Izigethy de Souza
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Sharjah FC win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Ajman · On: Anas Mtitache · Off: Saad El Hadani
85′Sharjah FC ahead on 83′ through an own goal by Yuri Matias. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–7–93
85′We said Sharjah FC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 1–2 · 0–7–93
85′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–7–93
85′⚽ GOAL · 83' Ajman 1–2 Sharjah FC · Yuri Matias (own goal)
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Sharjah FC win: 44% at kick-off, 93% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Sharjah FC win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 7%)
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Sharjah FC · On: Majed Hassan Ahmed · Off: Laba Kodjo
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Sharjah FC win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
88′We said Sharjah FC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
89′88′: Harib Abdalla Suhail on the scoresheet for Sharjah FC. 1–2 · 0–5–95
90′We said Sharjah FC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
90′⚽ GOAL · 88' Ajman 1–3 Sharjah FC · Harib Abdalla Suhail
91′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Ajman · On: Abdulla Abdelaziz · Off: Ismail Moumen
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Mohamed Nasser · Ajman
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Majed Hassan Ahmed · Sharjah FC
FTFULL TIME Ajman 1–3 Sharjah FC
FTAjman 1–3 Sharjah FC · Sharjah FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sharjah FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ajman 32%, draw 24%, Sharjah FC 44%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Ajman v Sharjah FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ajman win32%

Draw24%

Sharjah FC win44%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:45

RoundMatchday 6

VenueAjman stadium

Line-ups

Ajman

4-2-3-1

Sharjah FC

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ajman

Sharjah FC

4Days since last match9

Last match: 14 Oct · AGCFF Gulf Champions League

Last match: 9 Oct · League Cup (United Arab Emirates)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Ajman	5	−1	9
7	Sharjah FC	5	+3	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ajman

4-2-3-1

81 A. Al Hosani

12 Mohamed Nasser

5 G. Zajkov

44 Yuri Matias

22 Vitor Vargas

26 Bilal Yousef

18 I. Moumen

99 Victor Henrique

48 Saad El Hadani

33 Lithierry

7 Lourency

Coach · G. Tufegdžić

Substitutes

10 · Mohammad Juma

2 · Abdelrahman Rakan

3 · Abdulla Saleh

11 · Abdulla Abdelaziz

40 · Abdullah Al Tamimi

23 · Ahmed Al Zeyoudi

14 · F. Ben Njima

31 · Y. Jabri

4 · S. Suliman

67 · A. Mittache

90 · Obaid Raed

6 · Victor Hugo

Sharjah FC

4-1-4-1

40 Adel Al Hosani

19 Khaled Ebraheim

5 M. Katinić

31 C. Nsiala-Makengo

66 Leandrinho

6 C. Pickel

57 Lorran

10 Igor Coronado

8 Agner

16 Yahya Al Ghassani

9 K. Laba

Coach · José Morais

Substitutes

15 · Fahad Jasim

33 · V. Prijović

14 · Saif Al-Kaabi

17 · Mayed Muhsin

98 · C. Doumbia

99 · Sultan Al Saadi

2 · João Pedro Chermont

30 · O. Camara

34 · Harib Abdalla Suhail

1 · Khaled Tawhid

88 · Majed Hassan

74 · Léo Azevedo

Our number · sharjah fc winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market48%

Us44%

~~Market~~48%

We make Sharjah FC a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ajman v Sharjah FC~~1.35 – 1.62

~~Form · Pro League this season · since 14 Aug~~W3 D0 L2 · W3 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 9~~5 v 7

~~The market · Sharjah FC win~~48% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sharjah FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ajman win	32%	27%	+5
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Sharjah FC win	44%	48%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	57%	56%	+1
Both teams to score	59%	59%	0
Over 1.5 goals	79%	78%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	35%	0
Ajman or draw	56%	52%	+4
Ajman clean sheet	20%	–	–
Sharjah FC clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.1 8.5 6.7 3.7 1 7.0 11.0 9.0 4.9 2 4.7 7.5 6.1 3.3 3 2.1 3.4 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ajman down, Sharjah FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 949 Pro League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 39 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ajman at home: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sharjah FC away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Ajman, 1.62 for Sharjah FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 16:15. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AJM 3–2 SHA · AJM 3–2 SHA · SHA 0–1 AJM · SHA 4–0 AJM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Pro League this season · since 14 Aug

AJMAN

WWLWL3–2 · 4–3 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 2–3

SHARJAH FC

WLWWL3–1 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 4–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	6	+7	13
2	Al-Jazira	5	+9	13
3	Al-Wasl FC	6	+11	13
4	Al Ain	6	+5	13
5	Ajman	5	−1	9
6	Al Wahda FC	5	+1	9
7	Sharjah FC	5	+3	9
8	Al Nasr	6	+1	8
9	Dubai United	6	−5	7
10	Al-Dhafra	6	−2	6
11	Al-Ittihad Kalba	5	−7	4
12	Khorfakkan	5	−7	4
13	Hatta SC	6	−8	3
14	Baniyas SC	6	−7	1