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Home › Football › Presidents Cup › Shabab Al Ahli Dubai v Al Ain

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Shabab Al Ahli Dubai v Al Ain

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
3–2After extra time
Al Ain

Presidents Cup · THU 22 OCT · Al Rashid Stadium

After 90 minutesGraded 22 Oct 20:00
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2–2 Al Ain SHABAB AL AHLI DUBAI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win42%
The market said34%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.878
The market’s Brier score0.805

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 2–2, the score after 90 minutes. It finished 3–2 after extra time.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay22 notes · 43 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win at 42%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–24–34
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Shabab Al Ahli Dubai v Al Ain
  4. 19′A red card for Al Ain on 19′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 40–27–33
  5. 19′🟥 RED CARD · 19' Al Ain
  6. 21′Shabab Al Ahli Dubai score on 20′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 67–20–13
  7. 21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1–0 Al Ain
  8. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win: 42% at kick-off, 67% now
  9. 22′We published Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 42%. Our model now makes it 68%. 1–0 · 68–20–13
  10. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 68–20–11
  11. 30′SUBSTITUTION · 30' Al Ain · On: T. Gijselhart · Off: S. Rahimi
  12. 35′Shabab Al Ahli Dubai ahead on 35′ through S. Ezatolahi. 2–0. 2–0 · 89–8–3
  13. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2–0 Al Ain · S. Ezatolahi
  14. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win: 42% at kick-off, 89% now
  15. 36′We published Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 42%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–3
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2–1 Al Ain
  17. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
  18. 46′SECOND HALF Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2–1 Al Ain
  19. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
  20. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Al Ain · On: G. Giakoumakis · Off: E. H. Rahimi
  21. 52′A goal for Al Ain on 45′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 73–20–7
  22. 52′We published Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 42%. Our model now makes it 73%. 2–1 · 73–20–7
  23. 52′⚽ GOAL · 45+6' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2–1 Al Ain
  24. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+7' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win: 42% at kick-off, 73% now
  25. 55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Al Ain
  26. 59′We published Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 2–1 · 75–20–6
  27. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
  28. 69′Al Ain score on 68′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 24–55–21
  29. 69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2–2 Al Ain
  30. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win: 42% at kick-off, 24% now
  31. 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win 79%)
  32. 70′We said Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 2–2 · 23–57–20
  33. 70′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 23–57–20
  34. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
  35. 75′We said Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–64–17
  36. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Al Ain · On: A. Niang · Off: V. Lazaro
  37. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · On: Juan Alvina · Off: M. Al Mansouri
  38. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · On: Mateus Henrique · Off: J. Markelo
  39. 80′Red cards for both sides: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai down to ten, Al Ain to ten. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–2 · 14–73–12
  40. 80′🟥 RED CARD · 79' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
  41. 81′We said Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 2–2 · 13–75–11
  42. 81′Al Ain find the net on 81′. 2–3. 2–3 · 1–12–87
  43. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2–3 Al Ain
  44. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win: 42% at kick-off, 1% now
  45. 81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Al Ain win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 75%)
  46. 82′We said Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 2–3 · 1–11–88
  47. 82′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 1–11–88
  48. 84′GOAL DISALLOWED · 84' Al Ain
  49. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
  50. 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Al Ain win 89%)
  51. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
  52. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Al Ain · On: Erik Menezes · Off: R. Rodrigues
  53. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
  54. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · On: E. Irala · Off: Breno
  55. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · On: Rikelme · Off: Kauan Santos
  56. 97′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 53%. 2–2 · 25–53–22
  57. 104′SUBSTITUTION · 95' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · On: Mateusao · Off: S. Azmoun
  58. 109′SUBSTITUTION · 100' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · On: O. Keita · Off: J. Fernandes
  59. 117′Shabab Al Ahli Dubai find the net on 116′. 3–2. 3–2 · 94–6–0
  60. 117′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes Shabab Al Ahli Dubai likeliest at 94%. 3–2 · 94–6–0
  61. 117′⚽ GOAL · 116' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3–2 Al Ain
  62. 117′🟨 YELLOW · 117' Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
  63. 121′SUBSTITUTION · 101' Al Ain · On: Marcos Maia · Off: M. Palacios
  64. 122′🟨 YELLOW · 120+1' Al Ain
  65. 122′SUBSTITUTION · 101' Al Ain · On: I. Ndiaye · Off: Kaku
  66. FTFULL TIME Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3–2 Al Ain after extra time
  67. FTShabab Al Ahli Dubai 2–2 Al Ain after 90 minutes, as graded · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 42%, draw 24%, Al Ain 34%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai v Al AinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win42%
Draw24%
Al Ain win34%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 17:00

RoundRound of 16

VenueAl Rashid Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

Al Ain

5Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Pro League (United Arab Emirates)

Last match: 17 Oct · Pro League (United Arab Emirates)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shabab al ahli dubai winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 19 Oct 00:21 · locked at kick-off
42% The market34%
Us42%
Market34%

We make Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai v Al Ain1.62 – 1.43
The market · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win34% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 16 OCT 00:0022 OCT 16:41
Our probability · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win42%34%+8
Draw24%27%−3
Al Ain win34%39%−5
Over 2.5 goals59%56%+3
Both teams to score61%60%+1
Over 1.5 goals81%78%+3
Over 3.5 goals37%35%+2
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or draw66%61%+5
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai clean sheet24%––
Al Ain clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%
0123450 4.6 6.9 4.8 2.3 1 7.8 10.8 7.8 3.7 2 6.2 8.8 6.3 3.0 3 3.4 4.8 3.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Shabab Al Ahli Dubai down, Al Ain across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.20
Over 2.54 of 10
Both scored4 of 10
Last meetingsSHA 2–0 ALA · ALA 3–2 SHA · SHA 0–1 ALA · SHA 0–0 ALA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Presidents Cup this season

SHABAB AL AHLI DUBAI

No matches in our record yet.

AL AIN

No matches in our record yet.