Khorfakkan v Al-Dhafra

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Khorfakkan win at 47%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Khorfakkan 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–23–30
3. 1′KICK-OFF Khorfakkan v Al-Dhafra
4. 15′Al-Dhafra score on 15′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 22–23–55
5. 15′We said Khorfakkan at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–23–55
6. 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Khorfakkan 0–1 Al-Dhafra
7. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Khorfakkan win: 47% at kick-off, 22% now
8. 15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Al-Dhafra win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Khorfakkan win 45%)
9. 26′We said Khorfakkan at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–57
10. 27′SUBSTITUTION · 24' Al-Dhafra · On: K. El Berkaoui · Off: K. Bawazir
11. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 18–24–58
12. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Khorfakkan win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
13. 43′We said Khorfakkan at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
14. 44′Al-Dhafra find the net on 44′. 0–2. 0–2 · 4–10–86
15. 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Khorfakkan 0–2 Al-Dhafra
16. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Khorfakkan win: 47% at kick-off, 4% now
17. 45′We said Khorfakkan at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–86
18. 45′HALF-TIME Khorfakkan 0–2 Al-Dhafra
19. 46′SECOND HALF Khorfakkan 0–2 Al-Dhafra
20. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Khorfakkan · On: A. Al Naqbi · Off: A. Camara
21. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Khorfakkan · On: R. Sarki · Off: Rafael Pereira
22. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Al-Dhafra
23. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Al-Dhafra · On: Marcelinho · Off: M. Ibrahim
24. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Khorfakkan · On: A. Nakach · Off: P. Pavlov
25. 81′A goal for Khorfakkan on 81′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 1–13–86
26. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Khorfakkan 1–2 Al-Dhafra
27. 87′Khorfakkan score on 87′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 8–86–6
28. 87′We said Khorfakkan at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 2–2 · 8–86–6
29. 87′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 8–86–6
30. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Khorfakkan 2–2 Al-Dhafra
31. 87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Al-Dhafra win 92%)
32. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Khorfakkan · On: Y. Al Ameri · Off: J. N'Guessan
33. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Khorfakkan · On: A. Mahmoud · Off: R. Vaca
34. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Al-Dhafra · On: Arielson · Off: S. Kaba
35. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Al-Dhafra · On: Z. Mohammed · Off: R. Djooh
36. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Al-Dhafra · On: A. Al Karbi · Off: Serafim Corrected
37. 97′Khorfakkan find the net on 90′. 3–2. 3–2 · 99–1–0
38. 97′We said Khorfakkan at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–2 · 99–1–0
39. 97′⚽ GOAL · 90+7' Khorfakkan 3–2 Al-Dhafra
40. 97′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+7' Khorfakkan win: 47% at kick-off, 99% now
41. 97′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+7' Khorfakkan win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 97%)
42. 98′5 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 99–1–0
43. FTFULL TIME Khorfakkan 3–2 Al-Dhafra
44. FTKhorfakkan 3–2 Al-Dhafra · Khorfakkan win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.