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Al Nasr v Baniyas SC
Al NasrBaniyas SCPresidents Cup · FRI 23 OCT · Al Maktoum Stadium
Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 0–0, the score after 90 minutes. It finished 0–1 after extra time.
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Al Nasr win at 51%.
- 1′KICK-OFF Al Nasr v Baniyas SC
- 2′Much as we predicted: Al Nasr was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–24–25
- 19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Al Nasr
- 29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Al Nasr
- 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Al Nasr win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Al Nasr 0–0 Baniyas SC
- 46′SECOND HALF Al Nasr 0–0 Baniyas SC
- 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Al Nasr win: 51% at kick-off, 14% now
- 47′We said Al Nasr at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–38–23
- 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Al Nasr · On: K. Agudelo · Off: I. Faiz
- 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Al Nasr win 39%)
- 55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 36–43–21
- 58′We said Al Nasr at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–46–20
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Al Nasr win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
- 66′We said Al Nasr at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–53–18
- 70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Baniyas SC
- 72′We said Al Nasr at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–61–15
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Baniyas SC · On: S. Al Noobi · Off: R. Marciano
- 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Al Nasr win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Baniyas SC · On: A. Diallo · Off: J. Awoute
- 77′We said Al Nasr at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–69–12
- 81′We said Al Nasr at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–77–9
- 81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Al Nasr
- 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Al Nasr win: 51% at kick-off, 10% now
- 85′We said Al Nasr at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
- 90′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90' Baniyas SC
- 92′We said Al Nasr at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
- 104′A goal for Baniyas SC on 90′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–2–98
- 104′⚽ GOAL · 90+13' Al Nasr 0–1 Baniyas SC
- 104′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+14' Al Nasr win: 51% at kick-off, under 1% now
- 104′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+14' Baniyas SC win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 97%)
- 106′A goal for Baniyas SC on 106′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 3–18–80
- 106′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes Baniyas SC likeliest at 80%. 0–1 · 3–18–80
- 106′⚽ GOAL · 106' Al Nasr 0–1 Baniyas SC
- 108′M. Awad Alla scores for Baniyas SC on 104′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 2–16–82
- 153′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 97%. 0–0 · 2–97–1
- FTFULL TIME Al Nasr 0–1 Baniyas SC after extra time
- FTAl Nasr 0–0 Baniyas SC after 90 minutes, as graded · Al Nasr win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Al Nasr are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Al Nasr 51%, draw 24%, Baniyas SC 25%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
Al Nasr win51%Baniyas SC win25%Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:00
RoundRound of 16
VenueAl Maktoum Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Al NasrMINBaniyas SCEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Al Nasr
Baniyas SC
Last match: 17 Oct · Pro League (United Arab Emirates)
Last match: 16 Oct · Pro League (United Arab Emirates)
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Al Nasr a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Nasr win | 51% | 54% | −3 |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | −1 |
| Baniyas SC win | 25% | 22% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 34% | −2 |
| Al Nasr or draw | 75% | 78% | −3 |
| Al Nasr clean sheet | 32% | – | – |
| Baniyas SC clean sheet | 18% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Presidents Cup this season
AL NASR
No matches in our record yet.
BANIYAS SC
No matches in our record yet.