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Al-Jazira v Ajman
Al-JaziraAjmanPresidents Cup · THU 22 OCT · Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Jazira win at 54%.
- 1′KICK-OFF Al-Jazira v Ajman
- 2′Much as we predicted: Al-Jazira was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–22–25
- 15′We said Al-Jazira at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–1 · 27–24–49
- 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Al-Jazira 0–1 Ajman
- 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Al-Jazira win: 54% at kick-off, 27% now
- 15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Ajman win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Al-Jazira win 51%)
- 16′Ajman find the net on 16′. 0–1. 0–1 · 27–24–49
- 18′GOAL DISALLOWED · 18' Ajman
- 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Al-Jazira win: 54% at kick-off, 50% now
- 18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Al-Jazira win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Ajman win 49%)
- 35′SUBSTITUTION · 33' Ajman · On: S. Hadani · Off: W. Azaro
- 38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Al-Jazira
- 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Al-Jazira win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Al-Jazira 0–0 Ajman
- 45′SECOND HALF Al-Jazira 0–0 Ajman
- 46′We said Al-Jazira at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 42–35–23
- 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ajman · On: A. Rakan · Off: G. Zajkov
- 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Al-Jazira · On: K. Al Hammadi · Off: N. Mujkic
- 53′We said Al-Jazira at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–39–22
- 55′We expected about 3.2 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 43–34–23
- 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Al-Jazira win 39%)
- 59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Al-Jazira
- 62′We said Al-Jazira at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–46–20
- 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Al-Jazira win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
- 66′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Ajman · On: Lourency · Off: Lithierry
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Ajman · On: I. Moumen · Off: M. Jumaa
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Al-Jazira · On: K. Asllani · Off: M. Meloni
- 74′We said Al-Jazira at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–61–15
- 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Al-Jazira win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
- 78′We published Al-Jazira at 54%. Our model now makes it 88%. 1–0 · 88–11–1
- 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Al-Jazira 1–0 Ajman
- 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Al-Jazira win: 54% at kick-off, 88% now
- 78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Al-Jazira win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 66%)
- 79′Al-Jazira find the net on 78′. 1–0. 1–0 · 89–11–1
- 81′We published Al-Jazira at 54%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
- 84′Al-Jazira ahead on 77′ through Bruno. 1–0. 1–0 · 93–7–0
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Al-Jazira · On: A. Ramadan · Off: Bruno
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Ajman · On: Y. Jabri · Off: Victor Hugo
- 85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Ajman
- 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Al-Jazira win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
- 88′We published Al-Jazira at 54%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
- 90′Full time, 1–0. We called Al-Jazira at 54% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Al-Jazira 1–0 Ajman
- FTAl-Jazira 1–0 Ajman · Al-Jazira win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Al-Jazira are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Al-Jazira 54%, draw 22%, Ajman 25%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 61%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off
Al-Jazira win54%Ajman win25%Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 14:00
RoundRound of 16
VenueMohammed Bin Zayed Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Al-JaziraMINAjmanEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Al-Jazira
Ajman
Last match: 18 Oct · Pro League (United Arab Emirates)
Last match: 18 Oct · Pro League (United Arab Emirates)
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Al-Jazira a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 53%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Jazira win | 54% | 66% | −12 |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | +2 |
| Ajman win | 25% | 14% | +11 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 55% | +6 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 42% | −2 |
| Al-Jazira or draw | 75% | 86% | −11 |
| Al-Jazira clean sheet | 28% | – | – |
| Ajman clean sheet | 14% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Presidents Cup this season
AL-JAZIRA
No matches in our record yet.
AJMAN
No matches in our record yet.