Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Presidents Cup › Al Fujairah SC v Al Wahda FC

Back
United Arab Emirates flag

Al Fujairah SC v Al Wahda FC

Al Fujairah SC
0–1Full time
Al Wahda FC

Presidents Cup · FRI 23 OCT · Fujairah Club Stadium

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:32
Al Fujairah SC 0–1 Al Wahda FC AL WAHDA FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Al Wahda FC win76%
The market said67%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.090
The market’s Brier score0.164

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Al Wahda FC win at 76%.
  2. 0′KICK-OFF Al Fujairah SC v Al Wahda FC
  3. 1′Little has changed for our model: Al Wahda FC 76% before kick-off, 76% now. 0–0 · 9–15–76
  4. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Al Wahda FC win: 76% at kick-off, 66% now
  5. 36′We said Al Wahda FC at 76%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 11–25–64
  6. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Al Fujairah SC
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Al Fujairah SC 0–0 Al Wahda FC
  8. 45′SECOND HALF Al Fujairah SC 0–0 Al Wahda FC
  9. 46′We said Al Wahda FC at 76%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 11–30–59
  10. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Al Wahda FC win: 76% at kick-off, 56% now
  11. 54′We said Al Wahda FC at 76%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 11–35–54
  12. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.4 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 11–29–60
  13. 60′We said Al Wahda FC at 76%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 11–40–49
  14. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Al Wahda FC win: 76% at kick-off, 46% now
  15. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Al Wahda FC · On: A. Zouhir · Off: M. Burghash
  16. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Al Wahda FC · On: O. M. Khribin · Off: B. Diarra
  17. 65′We said Al Wahda FC at 76%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 11–45–44
  18. 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Al Wahda FC win 45%)
  19. 70′We said Al Wahda FC at 76%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 10–52–39
  20. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Al Fujairah SC · On: Samuel Rosa · Off: A. Juma
  21. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Al Fujairah SC · On: A. Anwar · Off: K. Drammeh
  22. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Al Wahda FC win: 76% at kick-off, 36% now
  23. 74′We said Al Wahda FC at 76%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 9–58–33
  24. 77′We said Al Wahda FC at 76%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 8–64–29
  25. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Al Wahda FC win: 76% at kick-off, 25% now
  26. 80′We said Al Wahda FC at 76%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 7–70–23
  27. 82′A goal for Al Wahda FC on 81′. 0–0 · 6–75–20
  28. 82′We said Al Wahda FC at 76% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 0–1 · 0–5–94
  29. 82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Al Fujairah SC 0–1 Al Wahda FC
  30. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Al Wahda FC win: 76% at kick-off, 94% now
  31. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Al Wahda FC win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 75%)
  32. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Al Wahda FC · On: Caio Canedo · Off: Jadsom
  33. 84′Al Wahda FC ahead on 80′ through A. Gnezda Cerin. 0–1. 0–1 · 0–4–96
  34. 84′We said Al Wahda FC at 76% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 0–1 · 0–4–96
  35. 84′Al Wahda FC find the net on 84′. 0–1 · 0–4–96
  36. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Al Fujairah SC · On: L. Diedhiou · Off: Rangel
  37. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Al Wahda FC win: 76% at kick-off, 96% now
  38. 90′0–1 at the end. Our 76% on Al Wahda FC comes in. 0–1 · 0–0–100
  39. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Al Wahda FC · On: M. Dehghan · Off: C. Benteke
  40. 93′Al Fujairah SC are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 0–1–99
  41. 93′🟥 RED CARD · 90+3' Al Fujairah SC
  42. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Al Wahda FC
  43. 96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' A. Zouhir · Al Wahda FC
  44. FTFULL TIME Al Fujairah SC 0–1 Al Wahda FC
  45. FTAl Fujairah SC 0–1 Al Wahda FC · Al Wahda FC win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Wahda FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Fujairah SC 9%, draw 15%, Al Wahda FC 76%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Al Fujairah SC v Al Wahda FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al Fujairah SC win9%
Draw15%
Al Wahda FC win76%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:55

RoundRound of 16

VenueFujairah Club Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Fujairah SC

Al Wahda FC

7Days since last match5

Last match: 16 Oct · Division 1 (United Arab Emirates)

Last match: 18 Oct · Pro League (United Arab Emirates)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al wahda fc winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
76% The market67%
Us76%
Market67%

We make Al Wahda FC a 76% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–2.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Al Fujairah SC v Al Wahda FC0.81 – 2.62
The market · Al Wahda FC win67% · ours 76%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75%80% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 13:49
Our probability · Al Wahda FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Al Fujairah SC win9%13%−4
Draw15%19%−4
Al Wahda FC win76%67%+9
Over 2.5 goals67%62%+5
Both teams to score52%54%−2
Over 1.5 goals86%81%+5
Over 3.5 goals45%42%+3
Al Fujairah SC or draw24%33%−9
Al Fujairah SC clean sheet7%––
Al Wahda FC clean sheet44%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.1%
0123450 3.4 8.2 11.1 9.7 6.4 3.31 2.4 7.1 9.0 7.9 5.2 2.72 2.8 3.7 3.2 2.1 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Al Fujairah SC down, Al Wahda FC across0–5 goals a side shown (94.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Presidents Cup this season · since 23 Sept

AL FUJAIRAH SC

WWD4–2 · 4–1 · 1–1

AL WAHDA FC

No matches in our record yet.