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Al Wahda FC v Al-Dhafra

Al Wahda FC

2–0Full time

Al-Dhafra

League Cup · FRI 9 OCT · Al Nahyan Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 17:04

Al Wahda FC 2–0 Al-Dhafra AL WAHDA FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Al Wahda FC win~~65%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.183

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.252

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Al Wahda FC win65%

Draw20%

Al-Dhafra win15%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 14:10

Venue · Al Nahyan Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Al Wahda FC

Formation not confirmed

23 F. Insfran

32 Guga

6 M. Ghorbani

44 M. Diarra

35 A. El Majhed

25 Jadsom

94 B. Diarra

66 G. Alvarez

12 A. Hamad

11 F. Kruspzky

70 O. M. Khribin

Coach · Pericles Chamusca

Substitutes

26 · H. Ammar

40 · A. Al Ameri

13 · H. Shebab

92 · Z. Al Falahi

15 · M. Dehghan

97 · S. Mark

20 · C. Benteke

7 · Caio Canedo

38 · A. Pradas

19 · A. Agbinone

96 · M. Al Gheilani

80 · A. Abdullah

Al-Dhafra

Formation not confirmed

17 E. Al Houti

15 A. Al Karbi

3 D. Komari

20 L. Amesimeku

6 E. Noumonvi

88 D. Mendy

8 Z. Mohammed

16 M. Ibrahim

95 K. El Berkaoui

11 M. El Khaloui

9 S. Kaba

Coach · Alen Horvat

Substitutes

44 · A. Al Sayed

33 · Samir Caetano

26 · Y. Al Marzouqi

4 · Serafim

5 · M. Al Harbi

80 · Rodriguinho

22 · R. Yaslam

21 · R. Djooh

7 · Marcelinho

99 · Arielson

77 · A. Ben Fajria

19 · A. Batal

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Al Wahda FC

Formation not confirmed

23 F. Insfran

32 Guga

6 M. Ghorbani

44 M. Diarra

35 A. El Majhed

25 Jadsom

94 B. Diarra

66 G. Alvarez

12 A. Hamad

11 F. Kruspzky

70 O. M. Khribin

Coach · Pericles Chamusca

Substitutes

26 · H. Ammar

40 · A. Al Ameri

13 · H. Shebab

92 · Z. Al Falahi

15 · M. Dehghan

97 · S. Mark

20 · C. Benteke

7 · Caio Canedo

38 · A. Pradas

19 · A. Agbinone

96 · M. Al Gheilani

80 · A. Abdullah

Al-Dhafra

Formation not confirmed

17 E. Al Houti

15 A. Al Karbi

3 D. Komari

20 L. Amesimeku

6 E. Noumonvi

88 D. Mendy

8 Z. Mohammed

16 M. Ibrahim

95 K. El Berkaoui

11 M. El Khaloui

9 S. Kaba

Coach · Alen Horvat

Substitutes

44 · A. Al Sayed

33 · Samir Caetano

26 · Y. Al Marzouqi

4 · Serafim

5 · M. Al Harbi

80 · Rodriguinho

22 · R. Yaslam

21 · R. Djooh

7 · Marcelinho

99 · Arielson

77 · A. Ben Fajria

19 · A. Batal

Our number · al wahda fc winPublished 9 Oct 14:02

65% The market59%

Us65%

~~Market~~59%

We make Al Wahda FC a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al wahda fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 60% to 59% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Wahda FC win	65%	59%	+6
Draw	20%	23%	−3
Al-Dhafra win	15%	18%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	56%	60%	−4
Both teams to score	50%	57%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	79%	81%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	39%	−5
Al Wahda FC or draw	85%	82%	+3
Al Wahda FC clean sheet	42%	–	–
Al-Dhafra clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.3%

0123450 5.3 4.8 2.0 1 11.1 9.4 4.1 2 11.3 9.7 4.2 3 7.8 6.7 2.9 4 4.1 3.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Wahda FC down, Al-Dhafra across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 945 Pro League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Wahda FC at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Dhafra away: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.08 goals for Al Wahda FC, 0.86 for Al-Dhafra. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~ALD 0–1 ALW · ALD 1–0 ALW · ALW 5–2 ALD · ALD 1–3 ALW

Form · last six in League Cup

AL WAHDA FC

LLLWWW0–1 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

AL-DHAFRA

WLLLLW1–0 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Wasl FC	3	+6	9
2	Al Nasr	3	+5	7
3	Baniyas SC	2	+4	6
4	Al-Jazira	2	+3	6
5	Ajman	2	+2	6
6	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	3	+1	5
7	Al-Ittihad Kalba	3	−3	4
8	Sharjah FC	2	0	3
9	Dubai United	3	−2	3
10	Al Ain	3	−2	1
11	Hatta SC	3	−4	1
12	Al-Dhafra	2	−3	0
13	Al Wahda FC	2	−3	0
14	Khorfakkan	3	−4	0