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Gulf United v Emirates Club

Gulf United

1–7Full time

Emirates Club

Division 1 · FRI 16 OCT

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 16:59

Gulf United 1–7 Emirates Club EMIRATES CLUB WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Emirates Club win~~46%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.440

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.556

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay22 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Emirates Club win at 46%.
0′KICK-OFF Gulf United v Emirates Club
2′Little has changed for our model: Emirates Club 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 30–24–46
18′We said Emirates Club at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–1 · 11–18–71
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Gulf United 0–1 Emirates Club
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Emirates Club win: 46% at kick-off, 71% now
19′Emirates Club find the net on 19′. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–18–71
24′Emirates Club ahead on 17′ through A. Brou. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–18–71
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 10–19–71
43′We said Emirates Club at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 0–2 · 2–6–92
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Gulf United 0–2 Emirates Club
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Emirates Club win: 46% at kick-off, 92% now
44′Emirates Club find the net on 44′. 0–1 · 8–19–73
44′GOAL DISALLOWED · 44' Emirates Club
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Emirates Club win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
45′SECOND HALF Gulf United 0–2 Emirates Club
47′A goal for Emirates Club on 45′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–93
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Gulf United 0–2 Emirates Club
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Emirates Club win: 46% at kick-off, 93% now
49′HALF-TIME Gulf United 0–2 Emirates Club
56′We said Emirates Club at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Emirates Club win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
65′We said Emirates Club at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
65′Emirates Club score on 65′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Gulf United 0–3 Emirates Club
72′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Gulf United 0–4 Emirates Club
73′Emirates Club find the net on 73′. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
77′5 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 0–5 · 0–0–100
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Gulf United 0–5 Emirates Club
79′A goal for Emirates Club on 78′ — 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
84′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 1–5 · 0–0–100
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Gulf United 1–5 Emirates Club
85′Gulf United score on 84′ to make it 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
86′7 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 1–6 · 0–0–100
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Gulf United 1–6 Emirates Club
87′Emirates Club find the net on 87′. 1–6. 1–6 · 0–0–100
92′That is 8, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 1–7 · 0–0–100
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Gulf United 1–7 Emirates Club
93′A goal for Emirates Club on 90′ — 1–7. 1–7 · 0–0–100
94′1–7 at the end. Our 46% on Emirates Club comes in. 1–7 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Gulf United 1–7 Emirates Club
FTGulf United 1–7 Emirates Club · Emirates Club win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Emirates Club are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gulf United 30%, draw 24%, Emirates Club 46%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Gulf United v Emirates ClubBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Gulf United win30%

Draw24%

Emirates Club win46%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gulf United

Emirates Club

7Days since last match5

Last match: 9 Oct · Division 1 (United Arab Emirates)

Last match: 11 Oct · Division 1 (United Arab Emirates)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Emirates Club	6	+4	9
11	Gulf United	5	0	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · emirates club winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

46% The market39%

Us46%

~~Market~~39%

We make Emirates Club a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gulf United v Emirates Club~~1.35 – 1.71

~~Form · Division 1 this season · since 23 Aug~~W2 D0 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 9~~11 v 4

~~The market · Emirates Club win~~39% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Emirates Club win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gulf United win	30%	35%	−5
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Emirates Club win	46%	39%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	59%	60%	−1
Both teams to score	60%	63%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	81%	0
Over 3.5 goals	36%	40%	−4
Gulf United or draw	54%	61%	−7
Gulf United clean sheet	19%	–	–
Emirates Club clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 4.9 8.1 6.9 3.9 1 6.4 10.8 9.1 5.2 2.3 2 4.3 7.2 6.1 3.5 3 3.3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gulf United down, Emirates Club across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,185 Division 1 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gulf United at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Emirates Club away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Gulf United, 1.71 for Emirates Club. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~GUL 1–1 EMI · EMI 0–1 GUL · GUL 4–0 EMI · EMI 2–1 GUL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division 1 this season · since 23 Aug

GULF UNITED

LLWWL3–4 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–2

EMIRATES CLUB

LWLLWW1–2 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Arabi	6	+9	16
2	Al Thaid	5	+6	10
3	Dibba Al-Fujairah	5	+4	10
4	Emirates Club	6	+4	9
5	Al Urooba	6	+3	9
6	Al Fujairah SC	6	+2	9
7	Forte Virtus	5	+1	9
8	Al Hamriyah	6	−3	9
9	Al Bataeh	6	−1	8
10	Dibba Al Hisn	5	+3	7
11	Gulf United	5	0	6
12	Palm City	5	−4	6
13	Ittifaq	6	−6	4
14	Dubai City	6	−8	4
15	Al Jazira Al Hamra	6	−10	3