Forte Virtus v Al Fujairah SC prediction · Division 1

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Forte Virtus 2–3 Al Fujairah SC FORTE VIRTUS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Forte Virtus win~~39%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.621

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.715

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Forte Virtus win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF Forte Virtus v Al Fujairah SC
2′Little has changed for our model: Forte Virtus 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–25–36
3′Little has changed for our model: Forte Virtus 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–25–36
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Forte Virtus 0–1 Al Fujairah SC
44′⚽ GOAL · 28' Forte Virtus 0–1 Al Fujairah SC
45′HALF-TIME Forte Virtus 0–1 Al Fujairah SC
46′SECOND HALF Forte Virtus 0–1 Al Fujairah SC
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Forte Virtus 0–2 Al Fujairah SC
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Forte Virtus 1–2 Al Fujairah SC
76′⚽ GOAL · 28' Forte Virtus 1–2 Al Fujairah SC · S. Benbachir
76′⚽ GOAL · 52' Forte Virtus 1–2 Al Fujairah SC · P. Daniel
76′⚽ GOAL · 59' Forte Virtus 1–2 Al Fujairah SC · M. Dyeidu
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Forte Virtus 1–3 Al Fujairah SC
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Forte Virtus 2–3 Al Fujairah SC
FTFULL TIME Forte Virtus 2–3 Al Fujairah SC
FTForte Virtus 2–3 Al Fujairah SC · Forte Virtus win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Forte Virtus win39%

Draw24%

Al Fujairah SC win36%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Forte Virtus

Al Fujairah SC

23Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Forte Virtus	4	+2	9
8	Al Fujairah SC	5	+1	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · forte virtus winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

39% The market41%

Us39%

~~Market~~41%

We make Forte Virtus a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · forte virtus win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Forte Virtus win	39%	41%	−2
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Al Fujairah SC win	36%	33%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	56%	54%	+2
Both teams to score	58%	57%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	76%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	34%	33%	+1
Forte Virtus or draw	64%	67%	−3
Forte Virtus clean sheet	25%	–	–
Al Fujairah SC clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.7 7.7 5.5 2.7 1 8.0 11.1 7.8 3.8 2 6.0 8.3 5.8 2.8 3 3.1 4.2 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Forte Virtus down, Al Fujairah SC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,181 Division 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.9% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Forte Virtus at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 2). Al Fujairah SC away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Forte Virtus, 1.44 for Al Fujairah SC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Division 1

FORTE VIRTUS

WLWW2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–2

AL FUJAIRAH SC

LWLWLL1–3 · 6–0 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Arabi	6	+9	16
2	Al Thaid	5	+6	10
3	Dibba Al-Fujairah	5	+4	10
4	Forte Virtus	4	+2	9
5	Al Hamriyah	5	0	9
6	Al Bataeh	5	−1	7
7	Dibba Al Hisn	4	+3	6
8	Al Fujairah SC	5	+1	6
9	Emirates Club	5	+1	6
10	Gulf United	5	0	6
11	Al Urooba	5	0	6
12	Palm City	5	−4	6
13	Dubai City	5	−5	4
14	Ittifaq	6	−6	4
15	Al Jazira Al Hamra	6	−10	3