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Emirates Club v Dubai City

Emirates Club

3–0Full time

Dubai City

Division 1 · SUN 11 OCT · Emirates Club Stadium

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Emirates Club 3–0 Dubai City EMIRATES CLUB WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Emirates Club win~~62%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.218

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.277

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Emirates Club win at 62%.
1′Much as we predicted: Emirates Club was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–20–18
1′KICK-OFF Emirates Club v Dubai City
2′Much as we predicted: Emirates Club was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–20–18
6′⚽ GOAL · 9' Emirates Club 0–0 Dubai City
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Emirates Club 1–0 Dubai City
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Emirates Club 2–0 Dubai City
20′A goal for Emirates Club on 15′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–4–1
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Emirates Club win: 62% at kick-off, 94% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Emirates Club win: 62% at kick-off, 62% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Emirates Club win: 62% at kick-off, 62% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Emirates Club win: 62% at kick-off, 94% now
22′A goal for Emirates Club on 15′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–4–1
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Emirates Club win: 62% at kick-off, 94% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Emirates Club win: 62% at kick-off, 94% now
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Emirates Club 2–1 Dubai City
45′HALF-TIME Emirates Club 2–0 Dubai City
45′⚽ GOAL · 9' Emirates Club 2–0 Dubai City
45′⚽ GOAL · 15' Emirates Club 2–0 Dubai City
46′SECOND HALF Emirates Club 2–0 Dubai City
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Emirates Club 3–0 Dubai City
88′⚽ GOAL · 9' Emirates Club 3–0 Dubai City · L. Da Rocha
88′⚽ GOAL · 15' Emirates Club 3–0 Dubai City · L. Da Rocha
88′⚽ GOAL · 72' Emirates Club 3–0 Dubai City · B. Faisal
FTFULL TIME Emirates Club 3–0 Dubai City
FTEmirates Club 3–0 Dubai City · Emirates Club win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Emirates Club win62%

Draw20%

Dubai City win18%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:10

VenueEmirates Club Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Emirates Club

Dubai City

23Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Emirates Club	5	+1	6
13	Dubai City	5	−5	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Ray Parlour accuses Arsenal star of 'not doing his job' in Leeds victoryMirror Football · 1 hour ago · Arsenal, Emirates Club

Arsenal trio and Italy defender react as Calafiori scores first Arsenal goal at the EmiratesFootball Italia · 4 hours ago · Arsenal, Emirates Club Brilliant Guimaraes goal helps Arsenal fight back to beat LeedsBBC Sport · 18 hours ago · Arsenal, Emirates Club

Arsenal star admits he wants to cause problem for Mikel Arteta after Leeds United decisionMirror Football · 19 hours ago · Arsenal, Emirates Club

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · emirates club winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

62% The market57%

Us62%

~~Market~~57%

We make Emirates Club a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · emirates club win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Emirates Club win	62%	57%	+5
Draw	20%	23%	−3
Dubai City win	18%	20%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	63%	60%	+3
Both teams to score	58%	58%	0
Over 1.5 goals	83%	81%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	41%	40%	+1
Emirates Club or draw	82%	80%	+1
Emirates Club clean sheet	34%	–	–
Dubai City clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.0 4.2 2.3 1 8.3 9.0 4.9 2 8.9 9.6 5.2 3 6.5 6.9 3.8 4 3.6 3.8 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Emirates Club down, Dubai City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,181 Division 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.9% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Emirates Club at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Dubai City away: 1.33 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.19 goals for Emirates Club, 1.09 for Dubai City. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~EMI 1–0 DUB · DUB 0–1 EMI · DUB 0–4 EMI · EMI 1–1 DUB

Form · last six in Division 1

EMIRATES CLUB

WLWLLW2–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 3–1

DUBAI CITY

LLLWDL0–2 · 1–3 · 1–5 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Arabi	6	+9	16
2	Al Thaid	5	+6	10
3	Dibba Al-Fujairah	5	+4	10
4	Forte Virtus	4	+2	9
5	Al Hamriyah	5	0	9
6	Al Bataeh	5	−1	7
7	Dibba Al Hisn	4	+3	6
8	Al Fujairah SC	5	+1	6
9	Emirates Club	5	+1	6
10	Gulf United	5	0	6
11	Al Urooba	5	0	6
12	Palm City	5	−4	6
13	Dubai City	5	−5	4
14	Ittifaq	6	−6	4
15	Al Jazira Al Hamra	6	−10	3