Dibba Al-Fujairah v Al Arabi prediction · Division 1

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Dibba Al-Fujairah 2–0 Al Arabi DIBBA AL-FUJAIRAH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dibba Al-Fujairah win~~50%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.379

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.474

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dibba Al-Fujairah win at 50%.
1′A goal for Dibba Al-Fujairah on 1′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–16–11
1′We said Dibba Al-Fujairah at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–16–11
1′KICK-OFF Dibba Al-Fujairah v Al Arabi
27′We said Dibba Al-Fujairah at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 75–17–8
42′Dibba Al-Fujairah score on 42′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
42′We said Dibba Al-Fujairah at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Dibba Al-Fujairah 2–0 Al Arabi
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Dibba Al-Fujairah win: 50% at kick-off, 94% now
45′HALF-TIME Dibba Al-Fujairah 2–0 Al Arabi
46′SECOND HALF Dibba Al-Fujairah 2–0 Al Arabi
49′We said Dibba Al-Fujairah at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
82′We said Dibba Al-Fujairah at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Dibba Al-Fujairah win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
FTFULL TIME Dibba Al-Fujairah 2–0 Al Arabi
FTDibba Al-Fujairah 2–0 Al Arabi · Dibba Al-Fujairah win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dibba Al-Fujairah are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dibba Al-Fujairah 50%, draw 24%, Al Arabi 26%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Dibba Al-Fujairah v Al ArabiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dibba Al-Fujairah win50%

Draw24%

Al Arabi win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dibba Al-Fujairah

Al Arabi

9Days since last match9

Last match: 9 Oct · Division 1 (United Arab Emirates)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dibba al-fujairah winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

50% The market44%

Us50%

~~Market~~44%

We make Dibba Al-Fujairah a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dibba Al-Fujairah v Al Arabi~~1.71 – 1.18

~~Form · Division 1 this season · since 21 Aug~~W3 D1 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 16~~5 v 1

~~The market · Dibba Al-Fujairah win~~44% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dibba Al-Fujairah win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dibba Al-Fujairah win	50%	44%	+6
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Al Arabi win	26%	30%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	55%	55%	0
Both teams to score	56%	58%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	75%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	33%	35%	−2
Dibba Al-Fujairah or draw	74%	70%	+4
Dibba Al-Fujairah clean sheet	32%	–	–
Al Arabi clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.9 6.5 3.9 1 9.6 11.0 6.4 2.6 2 8.2 9.2 5.4 2.2 3 4.7 5.3 3.1 4 2.1 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dibba Al-Fujairah down, Al Arabi across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,190 Division 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.7% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dibba Al-Fujairah at home: 2.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Al Arabi away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Dibba Al-Fujairah, 1.18 for Al Arabi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ALA 0–1 DIB · DIB 0–1 ALA · DIB 2–1 ALA · ALA 1–1 DIB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division 1 this season · since 21 Aug

DIBBA AL-FUJAIRAH

WWLWD3–1 · 4–3 · 0–2 · 4–1 · 2–2

AL ARABI

WWWDWW5–2 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Arabi	6	+9	16
2	Emirates Club	7	+10	12
3	Al Hamriyah	7	−1	12
4	Al Thaid	6	+5	10
5	Dibba Al-Fujairah	5	+4	10
6	Al Urooba	7	+3	10
7	Forte Virtus	5	+1	9
8	Al Fujairah SC	7	0	9
9	Palm City	6	−2	9
10	Dibba Al Hisn	6	+3	8
11	Al Bataeh	6	−1	8
12	Gulf United	6	−6	6
13	Al Jazira Al Hamra	7	−9	6
14	Ittifaq	6	−6	4
15	Dubai City	7	−10	4