Al Urooba v Dibba Al Hisn prediction · Division 1

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 16:59

Al Urooba 1–1 Dibba Al Hisn DIBBA AL HISN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Dibba Al Hisn win~~38%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.771

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.775

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dibba Al Hisn win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dibba Al Hisn was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 34–28–38
1′KICK-OFF Al Urooba v Dibba Al Hisn
3′Dibba Al Hisn score on 3′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 13–20–66
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Al Urooba 0–1 Dibba Al Hisn
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Dibba Al Hisn win: 38% at kick-off, 66% now
4′We published Dibba Al Hisn at 38%. Our model now makes it 67%. 0–1 · 13–20–67
9′Al Urooba find the net on 8′. 1–1. 1–1 · 33–30–37
9′⚽ GOAL · 8' Al Urooba 1–1 Dibba Al Hisn
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Dibba Al Hisn win: 38% at kick-off, 37% now
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Dibba Al Hisn win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Al Urooba 1–1 Dibba Al Hisn
46′SECOND HALF Al Urooba 1–1 Dibba Al Hisn
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Dibba Al Hisn win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
55′We said Dibba Al Hisn at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 24–49–26
60′We said Dibba Al Hisn at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 22–53–24
63′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–1 · 21–56–23
69′We said Dibba Al Hisn at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 18–63–19
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Dibba Al Hisn win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
76′We said Dibba Al Hisn at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 13–72–14
82′We said Dibba Al Hisn at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 8–82–9
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Dibba Al Hisn win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
89′We said Dibba Al Hisn at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Al Urooba 1–1 Dibba Al Hisn
FTAl Urooba 1–1 Dibba Al Hisn · Dibba Al Hisn win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Dibba Al Hisn just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Urooba 34%, draw 28%, Dibba Al Hisn 38%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Al Urooba v Dibba Al HisnBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Al Urooba win34%

Draw28%

Dibba Al Hisn win38%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Urooba

Dibba Al Hisn

5Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Division 1 (United Arab Emirates)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Al Urooba	6	+3	9
10	Dibba Al Hisn	5	+3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dibba al hisn winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

38% The market33%

Us38%

~~Market~~33%

We make Dibba Al Hisn a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Urooba v Dibba Al Hisn~~1.11 – 1.19

~~Form · Division 1 this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 7~~5 v 10

~~The market · Dibba Al Hisn win~~33% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dibba Al Hisn win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Urooba win	34%	38%	−4
Draw	28%	28%	0
Dibba Al Hisn win	38%	33%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	40%	50%	−10
Both teams to score	46%	55%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	67%	74%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	20%	29%	−9
Al Urooba or draw	62%	67%	−5
Al Urooba clean sheet	31%	–	–
Dibba Al Hisn clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 10.3 11.9 7.1 2.9 1 11.0 13.0 7.7 3.1 2 6.1 7.2 4.3 3 2.3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Urooba down, Dibba Al Hisn across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,185 Division 1 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.62 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Urooba at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Dibba Al Hisn away: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Al Urooba, 1.19 for Dibba Al Hisn. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ALU 1–0 DIB · DIB 0–2 ALU · DIB 1–2 ALU · ALU 1–2 DIB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division 1 this season · since 21 Aug

AL UROOBA

DDWDLW1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 3–0

DIBBA AL HISN

WLLWD4–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Arabi	6	+9	16
2	Al Thaid	5	+6	10
3	Dibba Al-Fujairah	5	+4	10
4	Emirates Club	6	+4	9
5	Al Urooba	6	+3	9
6	Al Fujairah SC	6	+2	9
7	Forte Virtus	5	+1	9
8	Al Hamriyah	6	−3	9
9	Al Bataeh	6	−1	8
10	Dibba Al Hisn	5	+3	7
11	Gulf United	5	0	6
12	Palm City	5	−4	6
13	Ittifaq	6	−6	4
14	Dubai City	6	−8	4
15	Al Jazira Al Hamra	6	−10	3