Al Thaid v Al Jazira Al Hamra prediction · Division 1

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Al Thaid 1–2 Al Jazira Al Hamra AL THAID WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Thaid win~~54%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.942

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.041

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Thaid win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al Thaid was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–23–23
1′KICK-OFF Al Thaid v Al Jazira Al Hamra
6′A goal for Al Jazira Al Hamra on 6′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 30–24–47
6′We said Al Thaid at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 0–1 · 30–24–47
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Al Thaid 0–1 Al Jazira Al Hamra
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Al Thaid win: 54% at kick-off, 30% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Al Jazira Al Hamra win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Al Thaid win 30%)
7′We said Al Thaid at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–24–47
12′Al Thaid score on 12′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 52–25–23
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Al Thaid 1–1 Al Jazira Al Hamra
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Al Thaid win: 54% at kick-off, 52% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Al Thaid win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Al Jazira Al Hamra win 23%)
14′11′: A. Tamboura on the scoresheet for Al Thaid, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 52–25–23
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Al Thaid win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
45′11′: A. Tamboura on the scoresheet for Al Thaid, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 43–36–21
45′HALF-TIME Al Thaid 1–1 Al Jazira Al Hamra
46′We said Al Thaid at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 1–1 · 42–36–21
46′SECOND HALF Al Thaid 1–1 Al Jazira Al Hamra
49′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–1 · 41–38–21
53′We said Al Thaid at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–41–20
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Al Thaid win 38%)
62′We said Al Thaid at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–48–18
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Al Thaid win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
68′We said Al Thaid at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–54–16
74′Al Jazira Al Hamra find the net on 74′. 1–2. 1–2 · 4–20–76
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Al Thaid 1–2 Al Jazira Al Hamra
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Al Thaid win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Al Jazira Al Hamra win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 20%)
75′We said Al Thaid at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 1–2 · 3–19–77
75′That is 3, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 3–19–77
FTFULL TIME Al Thaid 1–2 Al Jazira Al Hamra
FTAl Thaid 1–2 Al Jazira Al Hamra · Al Thaid win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Thaid are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Thaid 54%, draw 23%, Al Jazira Al Hamra 23%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Al Thaid v Al Jazira Al HamraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Al Thaid win54%

Draw23%

Al Jazira Al Hamra win23%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Thaid

Al Jazira Al Hamra

8Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · Division 1 (United Arab Emirates)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Al Thaid	5	+6	10
15	Al Jazira Al Hamra	6	−10	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al thaid winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:29 · locked at kick-off

54% The market58%

Us54%

~~Market~~58%

We make Al Thaid a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Thaid v Al Jazira Al Hamra~~1.86 – 1.12

~~Form · Division 1 this season · since 21 Aug~~W3 D1 L1 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 3~~3 v 15

~~The market · Al Thaid win~~58% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Thaid win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Thaid win	54%	58%	−4
Draw	23%	23%	0
Al Jazira Al Hamra win	23%	19%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	57%	63%	−6
Both teams to score	57%	60%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	80%	79%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	43%	−8
Al Thaid or draw	77%	81%	−4
Al Thaid clean sheet	33%	–	–
Al Jazira Al Hamra clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.3 5.7 3.2 1 9.4 10.5 5.9 2.2 2 8.7 9.6 5.4 2.0 3 5.4 6.0 3.4 4 2.6 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Thaid down, Al Jazira Al Hamra across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,188 Division 1 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.2% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Thaid at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Al Jazira Al Hamra away: 0.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for Al Thaid, 1.12 for Al Jazira Al Hamra. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALT 1–0 ALJ · ALJ 0–4 ALT · ALJ 1–2 ALT · ALT 0–0 ALJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division 1 this season · since 21 Aug

AL THAID

DWWWL1–1 · 5–1 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 0–1

AL JAZIRA AL HAMRA

LDLDLD0–6 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Arabi	6	+9	16
2	Emirates Club	7	+10	12
3	Al Thaid	5	+6	10
4	Dibba Al-Fujairah	5	+4	10
5	Al Urooba	7	+3	10
6	Forte Virtus	5	+1	9
7	Al Fujairah SC	7	0	9
8	Palm City	6	−2	9
9	Al Hamriyah	6	−3	9
10	Dibba Al Hisn	6	+3	8
11	Al Bataeh	6	−1	8
12	Gulf United	6	−6	6
13	Ittifaq	6	−6	4
14	Dubai City	6	−8	4
15	Al Jazira Al Hamra	6	−10	3