Al Hamriyah v Gulf United prediction · Division 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al HamriyahDrawGulf United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:55

Before kick-off · Match result · Al Hamriyah 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Hamriyah are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Hamriyah 54%, draw 22%, Gulf United 24%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Al Hamriyah v Gulf UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Al Hamriyah win54%

Draw22%

Gulf United win24%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:55

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Hamriyah

Gulf United

14Days since last match15

Last match: 17 Oct · Division 1 (United Arab Emirates)

Last match: 16 Oct · Division 1 (United Arab Emirates)

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Al Hamriyah	7	−1	12
12	Gulf United	6	−6	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al hamriyah winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Al Hamriyah a 54% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Hamriyah v Gulf United~~1.96 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Division 1 this season · since 28 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 12 v 6~~5 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Hamriyah win	54%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Gulf United win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Al Hamriyah or draw	76%	–	–
Al Hamriyah clean sheet	29%	–	–
Gulf United clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.3 5.1 3.2 1 8.0 9.9 6.1 2.6 2 7.7 9.5 5.9 2.5 3 5.1 6.2 3.8 4 2.5 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Hamriyah down, Gulf United across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,192 Division 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.2% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Hamriyah at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Gulf United away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.96 goals for Al Hamriyah, 1.25 for Gulf United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~GUL 1–1 ALH · ALH 4–2 GUL · ALH 3–3 GUL · GUL 1–4 ALH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 1 this season · since 28 Aug

AL HAMRIYAH

WLWWLW1–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 2–0

GULF UNITED

LLWWLL3–4 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–7

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Arabi	7	+7	16
2	Dibba Al-Fujairah	6	+6	13
3	Emirates Club	7	+10	12
4	Forte Virtus	6	+2	12
5	Al Hamriyah	7	−1	12
6	Al Thaid	6	+5	10
7	Al Urooba	7	+3	10
8	Al Fujairah SC	7	0	9
9	Palm City	6	−2	9
10	Dibba Al Hisn	6	+3	8
11	Al Bataeh	7	−2	8
12	Gulf United	6	−6	6
13	Al Jazira Al Hamra	7	−9	6
14	Ittifaq	6	−6	4
15	Dubai City	7	−10	4