Al Hamriyah v Al Urooba prediction · Division 1

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Al Hamriyah 0–3 Al Urooba AL UROOBA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Urooba win~~41%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.516

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.356

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Urooba win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Al Urooba 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 31–28–41
1′KICK-OFF Al Hamriyah v Al Urooba
2′Little has changed for our model: Al Urooba 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 31–28–41
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Al Hamriyah 0–1 Al Urooba
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Al Hamriyah 0–2 Al Urooba
45′HALF-TIME Al Hamriyah 0–2 Al Urooba
45′⚽ GOAL · 41' Al Hamriyah 0–2 Al Urooba
46′SECOND HALF Al Hamriyah 0–2 Al Urooba
72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Al Hamriyah 0–3 Al Urooba
84′⚽ GOAL · 40' Al Hamriyah 0–3 Al Urooba · P. Kunde
84′⚽ GOAL · 46' Al Hamriyah 0–3 Al Urooba · N. Andjusic
84′⚽ GOAL · 71' Al Hamriyah 0–3 Al Urooba · Wellissol
FTFULL TIME Al Hamriyah 0–3 Al Urooba
FTAl Hamriyah 0–3 Al Urooba · Al Urooba win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Al Hamriyah win31%

Draw28%

Al Urooba win41%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Al Hamriyah

Al Urooba

23Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Al Hamriyah	5	0	9
11	Al Urooba	5	0	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al urooba winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

41% The market51%

Us41%

~~Market~~51%

We make Al Urooba a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al urooba win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Hamriyah win	31%	23%	+8
Draw	28%	26%	+2
Al Urooba win	41%	51%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	43%	50%	−8
Both teams to score	48%	52%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	69%	72%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	22%	30%	−8
Al Hamriyah or draw	59%	49%	+10
Al Hamriyah clean sheet	28%	–	–
Al Urooba clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.4 11.9 7.8 3.4 1 10.0 12.8 8.3 3.6 2 5.4 6.9 4.5 3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Hamriyah down, Al Urooba across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,181 Division 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.9% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.17 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Hamriyah at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al Urooba away: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Al Hamriyah, 1.30 for Al Urooba. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ALH 0–1 ALU · ALU 1–1 ALH · ALU 2–2 ALH · ALH 1–2 ALU

Form · last six in Division 1

AL HAMRIYAH

WLWLWW2–0 · 0–4 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–1

AL UROOBA

WDDWDL2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Arabi	6	+9	16
2	Al Thaid	5	+6	10
3	Dibba Al-Fujairah	5	+4	10
4	Forte Virtus	4	+2	9
5	Al Hamriyah	5	0	9
6	Al Bataeh	5	−1	7
7	Dibba Al Hisn	4	+3	6
8	Al Fujairah SC	5	+1	6
9	Emirates Club	5	+1	6
10	Gulf United	5	0	6
11	Al Urooba	5	0	6
12	Palm City	5	−4	6
13	Dubai City	5	−5	4
14	Ittifaq	6	−6	4
15	Al Jazira Al Hamra	6	−10	3