Al Fujairah SC v Palm City prediction · Division 1

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 16:59

Al Fujairah SC 2–4 Palm City AL FUJAIRAH SC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Fujairah SC win~~51%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.809

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.491

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Fujairah SC win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Al Fujairah SC 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–21–28
1′KICK-OFF Al Fujairah SC v Palm City
12′A goal for Palm City on 12′. 0–0 · 50–22–28
12′We said Al Fujairah SC at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–1 · 28–22–50
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Al Fujairah SC 0–1 Palm City
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Al Fujairah SC win: 51% at kick-off, 28% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Palm City win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Al Fujairah SC win 28%)
26′We said Al Fujairah SC at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–23–53
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.8 we expected. 0–1 · 23–23–54
35′Palm City find the net on 35′. 0–1 · 21–24–55
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Al Fujairah SC win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
36′We said Al Fujairah SC at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–2 · 8–13–79
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Al Fujairah SC 0–2 Palm City
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Al Fujairah SC win: 51% at kick-off, 8% now
45′HALF-TIME Al Fujairah SC 0–2 Palm City
45′SECOND HALF Al Fujairah SC 0–2 Palm City
50′We said Al Fujairah SC at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–84
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Al Fujairah SC win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
70′A goal for Al Fujairah SC on 70′. 0–2 · 1–5–94
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Al Fujairah SC 1–2 Palm City
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Al Fujairah SC win: 51% at kick-off, 6% now
72′Palm City find the net on 72′. 1–2 · 6–22–72
75′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–4–96
75′⚽ GOAL · 72' Al Fujairah SC 1–3 Palm City · A. Diaby
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Al Fujairah SC win: 51% at kick-off, under 1% now
81′A goal for Al Fujairah SC on 81′. 1–3 · 0–2–98
81′5 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 2–15–83
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Al Fujairah SC 2–3 Palm City
83′Palm City find the net on 82′. 2–4. 2–4 · 0–1–99
83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Al Fujairah SC 2–4 Palm City
84′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 0–1–99
FTFULL TIME Al Fujairah SC 2–4 Palm City
FTAl Fujairah SC 2–4 Palm City · Al Fujairah SC win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Fujairah SC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Fujairah SC 51%, draw 20%, Palm City 29%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Al Fujairah SC v Palm CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Al Fujairah SC win51%

Draw20%

Palm City win29%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Fujairah SC

Palm City

5Days since last match17

Last match: 11 Oct · Division 1 (United Arab Emirates)

Last match: 29 Sept · Presidents Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Al Fujairah SC	6	+2	9
12	Palm City	5	−4	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al fujairah sc winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

51% The market32%

Us51%

~~Market~~32%

We make Al Fujairah SC a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 19 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Fujairah SC v Palm City~~2.21 – 1.62

~~Form · Division 1 this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 6~~6 v 12

~~The market · Al Fujairah SC win~~32% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Fujairah SC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Fujairah SC win	51%	32%	+19
Draw	20%	25%	−5
Palm City win	29%	43%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	73%	59%	+14
Both teams to score	70%	62%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	89%	79%	+10
Over 3.5 goals	53%	40%	+13
Al Fujairah SC or draw	71%	57%	+14
Al Fujairah SC clean sheet	21%	–	–
Palm City clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.5 3.7 3.0 1 5.0 7.8 6.2 3.4 2 5.4 8.3 6.6 3.6 3 3.9 6.0 4.8 2.6 4 2.2 3.4 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Fujairah SC down, Palm City across0–5 goals a side shown (96.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,185 Division 1 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Al Fujairah SC at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Palm City away: 2.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

2.21 goals for Al Fujairah SC, 1.62 for Palm City. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division 1 this season · since 22 Aug

AL FUJAIRAH SC

WLWLLW6–0 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 3–2

PALM CITY

LLWWL2–5 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Arabi	6	+9	16
2	Al Thaid	5	+6	10
3	Dibba Al-Fujairah	5	+4	10
4	Emirates Club	6	+4	9
5	Al Urooba	6	+3	9
6	Al Fujairah SC	6	+2	9
7	Forte Virtus	5	+1	9
8	Al Hamriyah	6	−3	9
9	Al Bataeh	6	−1	8
10	Dibba Al Hisn	5	+3	7
11	Gulf United	5	0	6
12	Palm City	5	−4	6
13	Ittifaq	6	−6	4
14	Dubai City	6	−8	4
15	Al Jazira Al Hamra	6	−10	3