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Livyi Bereh U19 v SK Metalurh U19

Livyi Bereh U19

3–2Full time

SK Metalurh U19

U19 League · WED 21 OCT

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 12:31

Livyi Bereh U19 3–2 SK Metalurh U19 LIVYI BEREH U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Livyi Bereh U19 win~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.236

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay29 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Livyi Bereh U19 win at 60%.
1′Much as we predicted: Livyi Bereh U19 was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–19–21
1′KICK-OFF Livyi Bereh U19 v SK Metalurh U19
14′SK Metalurh U19 score on 14′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 36–22–42
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Livyi Bereh U19 0–1 SK Metalurh U19
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Livyi Bereh U19 win: 60% at kick-off, 36% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' SK Metalurh U19 win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Livyi Bereh U19 win 58%)
15′We said Livyi Bereh U19 at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–1 · 35–22–42
18′We said Livyi Bereh U19 at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–23–43
22′SK Metalurh U19 score on 14′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 33–23–44
24′We said Livyi Bereh U19 at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–1 · 32–23–45
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Livyi Bereh U19 win: 60% at kick-off, 30% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.8 we expected. 0–1 · 30–24–46
31′We said Livyi Bereh U19 at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–24–46
42′We said Livyi Bereh U19 at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–26–50
45′HALF-TIME Livyi Bereh U19 0–1 SK Metalurh U19
48′SK Metalurh U19 score on 14′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 21–27–52
48′SECOND HALF Livyi Bereh U19 0–1 SK Metalurh U19
49′We said Livyi Bereh U19 at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–27–53
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Livyi Bereh U19 win: 60% at kick-off, 20% now
51′We said Livyi Bereh U19 at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–27–54
54′Livyi Bereh U19 find the net on 53′. 1–1. 1–1 · 45–35–20
54′We said Livyi Bereh U19 at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 45%. 1–1 · 45–35–20
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Livyi Bereh U19 1–1 SK Metalurh U19
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Livyi Bereh U19 win: 60% at kick-off, 45% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Livyi Bereh U19 win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was SK Metalurh U19 win 55%)
55′We said Livyi Bereh U19 at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–36–20
56′Goals are coming at about the 3.8 we expected. 1–1 · 44–37–20
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Livyi Bereh U19 win: 60% at kick-off, 40% now
63′We said Livyi Bereh U19 at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–42–18
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Livyi Bereh U19 win 41%)
69′We said Livyi Bereh U19 at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–49–17
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Livyi Bereh U19 win: 60% at kick-off, 30% now
74′We said Livyi Bereh U19 at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–57–15
75′A goal for SK Metalurh U19 on 75′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 5–22–72
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Livyi Bereh U19 1–2 SK Metalurh U19
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Livyi Bereh U19 win: 60% at kick-off, 5% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' SK Metalurh U19 win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 58%)
76′We said Livyi Bereh U19 at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 1–2 · 5–22–74
77′We said Livyi Bereh U19 at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
79′Livyi Bereh U19 score on 79′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 22–66–12
79′4 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 22–66–12
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Livyi Bereh U19 2–2 SK Metalurh U19
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Livyi Bereh U19 win: 60% at kick-off, 22% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 66% (was SK Metalurh U19 win 78%)
83′Livyi Bereh U19 find the net on 82′. 3–2. 3–2 · 92–8–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Livyi Bereh U19 3–2 SK Metalurh U19
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Livyi Bereh U19 win: 60% at kick-off, 92% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Livyi Bereh U19 win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 73%)
84′We published Livyi Bereh U19 at 60%. Our model now makes it 93%. 3–2 · 93–7–0
85′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 93–7–0
88′We published Livyi Bereh U19 at 60%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–2 · 95–5–0
92′A goal for Livyi Bereh U19 on 90′ — 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Livyi Bereh U19 4–2 SK Metalurh U19
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Livyi Bereh U19 win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
93′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+3' Livyi Bereh U19
FTFULL TIME Livyi Bereh U19 3–2 SK Metalurh U19
FTLivyi Bereh U19 3–2 SK Metalurh U19 · Livyi Bereh U19 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Livyi Bereh U19 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Livyi Bereh U19 60%, draw 19%, SK Metalurh U19 21%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Livyi Bereh U19 v SK Metalurh U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Livyi Bereh U19 win60%

Draw19%

SK Metalurh U19 win21%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Livyi Bereh U19

SK Metalurh U19

4Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · U19 League

Last match: 14 Oct · U19 League

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Livyi Bereh U19	10	−2	17
12	SK Metalurh U19	10	−17	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · livyi bereh u19 winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 00:22 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Livyi Bereh U19 a 60% chance to win. The model expects 2.5–1.4, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Livyi Bereh U19 v SK Metalurh U19~~2.45 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in U19 League this season · since 2 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 17 v 8~~5 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Livyi Bereh U19 win

Published at 66%, 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Livyi Bereh U19 win	60%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
SK Metalurh U19 win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	72%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	52%	–	–
Livyi Bereh U19 or draw	79%	–	–
Livyi Bereh U19 clean sheet	27%	–	–
SK Metalurh U19 clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.5%

0123450 2.7 3.4 2.3 1 5.8 7.6 5.0 2.3 2 6.7 8.5 5.7 2.6 3 5.3 6.7 4.5 2.1 4 3.3 4.2 2.7 5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Livyi Bereh U19 down, SK Metalurh U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (94.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 788 U19 League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: U19 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.2% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Livyi Bereh U19 at home: 0.83 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). SK Metalurh U19 away: 1.00 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

2.45 goals for Livyi Bereh U19, 1.35 for SK Metalurh U19. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in U19 League this season · since 2 Sept

LIVYI BEREH U19

LDWLWL2–4 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 3–0 · 0–7

SK METALURH U19

LLDLLL1–2 · 1–5 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–6 · 0–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rukh Vynnyky U19	9	+36	27
2	Dynamo Kyiv U19	10	+12	22
3	Karpaty Lviv U19	10	+8	18
4	LNZ Cherkasy U19	10	+3	17
5	Livyi Bereh U19	10	−2	17
6	Oleksandria U19	10	+2	16
7	Veres Rivne U19	9	0	13
8	Metalist 1925 U19	10	−6	13
9	Zhytomyr U19	10	−4	12
10	Shakhtar Donetsk U19	8	−1	11
11	Obolon' Kyiv U19	10	−7	9
12	SK Metalurh U19	10	−17	8
13	Kolos Kovalivka U19	10	−12	6
14	Lviv U19	10	−12	6