Karpaty Lviv U19 v Metalist 1925 U19 prediction · U19 League

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 12:31

Karpaty Lviv U19 0–0 Metalist 1925 U19 KARPATY LVIV U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Karpaty Lviv U19 win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.036

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Karpaty Lviv U19 win at 59%.
1′KICK-OFF Karpaty Lviv U19 v Metalist 1925 U19
2′Little has changed for our model: Karpaty Lviv U19 59% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–20–21
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Karpaty Lviv U19 win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
45′We said Karpaty Lviv U19 at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 47%. 0–0 · 47–32–21
45′HALF-TIME Karpaty Lviv U19 0–0 Metalist 1925 U19
46′SECOND HALF Karpaty Lviv U19 0–0 Metalist 1925 U19
51′We said Karpaty Lviv U19 at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–35–20
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 42–38–20
60′We said Karpaty Lviv U19 at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–42–19
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Karpaty Lviv U19 win: 59% at kick-off, 39% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Karpaty Lviv U19 win 41%)
67′We said Karpaty Lviv U19 at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–49–17
73′We said Karpaty Lviv U19 at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–57–15
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Karpaty Lviv U19 win: 59% at kick-off, 28% now
77′We said Karpaty Lviv U19 at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–64–12
81′We said Karpaty Lviv U19 at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–72–10
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Karpaty Lviv U19 win: 59% at kick-off, 18% now
84′We said Karpaty Lviv U19 at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–80–7
88′We said Karpaty Lviv U19 at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Karpaty Lviv U19 win: 59% at kick-off, 9% now
93′We said Karpaty Lviv U19 at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
FTFULL TIME Karpaty Lviv U19 0–0 Metalist 1925 U19
FTKarpaty Lviv U19 0–0 Metalist 1925 U19 · Karpaty Lviv U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Karpaty Lviv U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Karpaty Lviv U19 59%, draw 20%, Metalist 1925 U19 21%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Karpaty Lviv U19 v Metalist 1925 U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Karpaty Lviv U19 win59%

Draw20%

Metalist 1925 U19 win21%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Karpaty Lviv U19

Metalist 1925 U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · U19 League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Karpaty Lviv U19	10	+8	18
8	Metalist 1925 U19	10	−6	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · karpaty lviv u19 winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Karpaty Lviv U19 a 59% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.3, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Karpaty Lviv U19 v Metalist 1925 U19~~2.25 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in U19 League this season · since 2 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 13~~3 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karpaty Lviv U19 win	59%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Metalist 1925 U19 win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
Karpaty Lviv U19 or draw	79%	–	–
Karpaty Lviv U19 clean sheet	29%	–	–
Metalist 1925 U19 clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.4 3.9 2.5 1 6.8 8.5 5.3 2.3 2 7.5 9.1 5.7 2.5 3 5.5 6.8 4.2 4 3.2 3.9 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karpaty Lviv U19 down, Metalist 1925 U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 788 U19 League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: U19 League matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.2% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Karpaty Lviv U19 at home: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Metalist 1925 U19 away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.25 goals for Karpaty Lviv U19, 1.27 for Metalist 1925 U19. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MET 3–2 KAR · KAR 4–1 MET

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in U19 League this season · since 2 Sept

KARPATY LVIV U19

WWWLWL4–2 · 5–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

METALIST 1925 U19

DWLWWW2–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rukh Vynnyky U19	9	+36	27
2	Dynamo Kyiv U19	10	+12	22
3	Karpaty Lviv U19	10	+8	18
4	LNZ Cherkasy U19	10	+3	17
5	Livyi Bereh U19	10	−2	17
6	Oleksandria U19	10	+2	16
7	Veres Rivne U19	9	0	13
8	Metalist 1925 U19	10	−6	13
9	Zhytomyr U19	10	−4	12
10	Shakhtar Donetsk U19	8	−1	11
11	Obolon' Kyiv U19	10	−7	9
12	SK Metalurh U19	10	−17	8
13	Kolos Kovalivka U19	10	−12	6
14	Lviv U19	10	−12	6