Zorya Luhansk v Epitsentr Dunayivtsi prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Zorya LuhanskDrawEpitsentr Dunayivtsi

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Zorya Luhansk 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zorya Luhansk are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zorya Luhansk 49%, draw 26%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 25%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Zorya Luhansk v Epitsentr DunayivtsiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Zorya Luhansk win49%

Draw26%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win25%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSlavutych-Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zorya Luhansk

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the Ukrainian Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Zorya Luhansk	10	−1	15
9	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	10	−4	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zorya luhansk winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Zorya Luhansk a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zorya Luhansk v Epitsentr Dunayivtsi~~1.64 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 15 v 9~~6 v 9

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zorya Luhansk win	49%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Zorya Luhansk or draw	75%	–	–
Zorya Luhansk clean sheet	34%	–	–
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.5 6.6 4.0 1 9.9 12.2 6.3 2.4 2 8.5 9.2 5.1 3 4.7 5.1 2.8 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zorya Luhansk down, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,195 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.7% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zorya Luhansk at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Zorya Luhansk, 1.10 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ZOR 1–0 EPI · EPI 1–2 ZOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 6 Sept

ZORYA LUHANSK

DDLWWD1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 0–0

EPITSENTR DUNAYIVTSI

DLLLDL0–0 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Polessya	10	+15	25
2	Shakhtar Donetsk	10	+15	25
3	FC Kharkiv	9	+11	21
4	Dynamo Kyiv	9	+5	19
5	Karpaty	9	+9	15
6	Zorya Luhansk	10	−1	15
7	LNZ Cherkasy	10	+1	15
8	Kolos Kovalivka	9	−1	11
9	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	10	−4	9
10	Veres Rivne	10	−7	9
11	Livyi Bereh	9	−2	8
12	Bukovyna	9	−5	8
13	Obolon'-Brovar	9	−11	7
14	Chornomorets	8	−6	5
15	Kudrivka	10	−13	5
16	Kryvbas KR	7	−6	5