Zorya Luhansk v Chornomorets

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Zorya Luhansk win at 53%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Zorya Luhansk was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–26–22
3. 1′KICK-OFF Zorya Luhansk v Chornomorets
4. 28′We published Zorya Luhansk at 53%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–15–6
5. 28′Zorya Luhansk find the net on 27′. 0–0 · 46–33–21 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
6. 28′A goal for Zorya Luhansk on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–15–6
7. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Zorya Luhansk 1–0 Chornomorets
8. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Zorya Luhansk win: 53% at kick-off, 79% now
9. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 79–15–6
10. 38′We published Zorya Luhansk at 53%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–5
11. 42′We published Zorya Luhansk at 53%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
12. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Zorya Luhansk 2–0 Chornomorets
13. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Zorya Luhansk win: 53% at kick-off, 96% now
14. 43′GOAL DISALLOWED · 43' Zorya Luhansk
15. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Zorya Luhansk win: 53% at kick-off, 80% now
16. 45′45′: Christian Mba on the scoresheet for Chornomorets, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 41–40–20
17. 45′We said Zorya Luhansk at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 1–1 · 41–40–20
18. 45′Zorya Luhansk have had 10 attempts to 3 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 41–40–20
19. 45′HALF-TIME Zorya Luhansk 1–1 Chornomorets
20. 46′SECOND HALF Zorya Luhansk 1–1 Chornomorets
21. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Chornomorets · On: Danyil Alefirenko · Off: Vitaliy Faraseyenko
22. 49′We said Zorya Luhansk at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–42–19
23. 49′⚽ GOAL · 45+4' Zorya Luhansk 1–1 Chornomorets
24. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+4' Zorya Luhansk win: 53% at kick-off, 39% now
25. 49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Igor Perduta · Zorya Luhansk
26. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Zorya Luhansk win 38%)
27. 58′We said Zorya Luhansk at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–49–17
28. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Zorya Luhansk win: 53% at kick-off, 33% now
29. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Zorya Luhansk · On: Dejan Popara · Off: Kyrylo Dryshlyuk
30. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Zorya Luhansk · On: Vladlen Yurchenko · Off: sallieu bah
31. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Dejan Popara · Zorya Luhansk
32. 64′Zorya Luhansk have had 12 attempts to 6 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 30–54–16
33. 65′We said Zorya Luhansk at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–55–15
34. 72′We said Zorya Luhansk at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–64–13
35. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Zorya Luhansk · On: Anton Glushchenko · Off: Domagoj jelavic
36. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Zorya Luhansk win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
37. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Chornomorets · On: Andriy Khoma · Off: Kiril·Popov
38. 77′We said Zorya Luhansk at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–71–10
39. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Pylyp Budkivskyi · Zorya Luhansk
40. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Chornomorets · On: Dmytro Klyots · Off: Artur Avagimyan
41. 81′We said Zorya Luhansk at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–79–8
42. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Zorya Luhansk win: 53% at kick-off, 12% now
43. 85′We said Zorya Luhansk at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–86–5
44. 89′17 shots for Zorya Luhansk, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 6–91–3
45. 90′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 97–3–0
46. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Zorya Luhansk · On: Igor Gorbach · Off: Ivan Nesterenko
47. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Zorya Luhansk · On: Domagoj jelavic · Off: Maksym Boyko Corrected
48. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Muhammed Jobe · Chornomorets
49. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Zorya Luhansk 2–1 Chornomorets
50. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Zorya Luhansk win: 53% at kick-off, 97% now
51. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Zorya Luhansk win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
52. 92′Zorya Luhansk ahead on 89′ through Bogdan Kushnirenko. 2–1. 2–1 · 98–2–0
53. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Vasyl Kravets · Zorya Luhansk
54. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' M. Jarju · Chornomorets
55. 95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Chornomorets · On: Vasyl Kurko · Off: Muhammed Jobe
56. FTFULL TIME Zorya Luhansk 2–1 Chornomorets
57. FTZorya Luhansk 2–1 Chornomorets · Zorya Luhansk win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.