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Veres Rivne v Shakhtar Donetsk

Veres Rivne

0–3Full time

Shakhtar Donetsk

Premier League · FRI 9 OCT · Avanhard Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 16:01

Veres Rivne 0–3 Shakhtar Donetsk SHAKHTAR DONETSK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Shakhtar Donetsk win~~69%

~~The market said~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.151

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.112

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Veres Rivne win12%

Draw20%

Shakhtar Donetsk win69%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 13:30

Venue · Avanhard Stadium

Referee · Viktor Kopievskiy

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Veres Rivne

4-4-2

91 V. Gorokh

17 M. Protasevych

4 K. Cipot

3 S. Vovchenko

2 M. Smiyan

19 A. Goncalves

14 I. Kharatin

44 D. Checher

77 V. Sharay

7 F. Yan

88 R. Baran

Coach · Oleg Shandruk

Substitutes

1 · P. Stefanyuk

99 · V. Samkov

53 · Andrey

25 · I. Sanotskyi

5 · P. Bagriy

6 · D. Niyo

27 · S. Migutskyi

80 · G. de Jesus Lima

11 · Wesley Pomba

30 · L. Khokhashvili

20 · A. Wally

55 · A. Vydrych

Shakhtar Donetsk

4-1-4-1

31 D. Riznyk

17 V. Tobias

5 V. Bondar

22 M. Matvienko

13 Pedro Henrique

8 D. Kryskiv

30 Alisson

10 Pedrinho

6 Marlon Gomes

11 Newerton

9 Kaua Elias

Coach · Arda Turan

Substitutes

48 · D. Tvardovskyi

14 · Isaque Silva

20 · O. Karavaev

24 · V. Tsukanov

25 · Gabriel Carvalho

27 · O. Ocheretko

28 · A. Matturro

29 · Y. Nazaryna

37 · Lucas Ferreira

49 · Luca Meirelles

68 · P. Obah

77 · G. Mendoza

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Veres Rivne

4-4-2

91 V. Gorokh

17 M. Protasevych

4 K. Cipot

3 S. Vovchenko

2 M. Smiyan

19 A. Goncalves

14 I. Kharatin

44 D. Checher

77 V. Sharay

7 F. Yan

88 R. Baran

Coach · Oleg Shandruk

Substitutes

1 · P. Stefanyuk

99 · V. Samkov

53 · Andrey

25 · I. Sanotskyi

5 · P. Bagriy

6 · D. Niyo

27 · S. Migutskyi

80 · G. de Jesus Lima

11 · Wesley Pomba

30 · L. Khokhashvili

20 · A. Wally

55 · A. Vydrych

Shakhtar Donetsk

4-1-4-1

31 D. Riznyk

17 V. Tobias

5 V. Bondar

22 M. Matvienko

13 Pedro Henrique

8 D. Kryskiv

30 Alisson

10 Pedrinho

6 Marlon Gomes

11 Newerton

9 Kaua Elias

Coach · Arda Turan

Substitutes

48 · D. Tvardovskyi

14 · Isaque Silva

20 · O. Karavaev

24 · V. Tsukanov

25 · Gabriel Carvalho

27 · O. Ocheretko

28 · A. Matturro

29 · Y. Nazaryna

37 · Lucas Ferreira

49 · Luca Meirelles

68 · P. Obah

77 · G. Mendoza

Our number · shakhtar donetsk winPublished 9 Oct 13:32

69% The market73%

Us69%

~~Market~~73%

We make Shakhtar Donetsk a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–2.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · shakhtar donetsk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Veres Rivne win	12%	9%	+3
Draw	20%	18%	+2
Shakhtar Donetsk win	69%	73%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	54%	52%	+2
Both teams to score	46%	39%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	78%	74%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	32%	32%	+1
Veres Rivne or draw	31%	27%	+5
Veres Rivne clean sheet	12%	–	–
Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet	48%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 12.7%

0123450 6.4 11.7 12.7 9.0 4.9 2.21 3.8 9.3 9.2 6.5 3.5 2 3.3 3.4 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Veres Rivne down, Shakhtar Donetsk across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,174 Premier League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.4% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.44 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Veres Rivne at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Shakhtar Donetsk away: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.74 goals for Veres Rivne, 2.14 for Shakhtar Donetsk. Most likely score 0–2.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 13:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.44

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~SHA 1–0 VER · VER 0–2 SHA · SHA 3–0 VER · VER 1–1 SHA

Form · last six in Premier League

VERES RIVNE

LDWDDW1–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

SHAKHTAR DONETSK

WWLWWW2–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shakhtar Donetsk	7	+11	18
2	Polessya	7	+10	18
3	Karpaty	7	+10	14
4	Dynamo Kyiv	6	+4	13
5	FC Kharkiv	6	+8	12
6	Veres Rivne	7	0	9
7	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	7	−1	8
8	LNZ Cherkasy	7	−3	8
9	Zorya Luhansk	7	−4	8
10	Livyi Bereh	6	+1	7
11	Bukovyna	7	−2	7
12	Kryvbas KR	6	−3	5
13	Kolos Kovalivka	6	−4	5
14	Chornomorets	6	−4	5
15	Obolon'-Brovar	7	−10	4
16	Kudrivka	7	−13	2