Veres Rivne v Kolos Kovalivka prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 15:31

Veres Rivne 0–2 Kolos Kovalivka KOLOS KOVALIVKA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kolos Kovalivka win~~38%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.573

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.502

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kolos Kovalivka win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kolos Kovalivka was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 29–33–38
1′KICK-OFF Veres Rivne v Kolos Kovalivka
14′Kolos Kovalivka find the net on 14′. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–19–72
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Veres Rivne 0–1 Kolos Kovalivka
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Kolos Kovalivka win: 38% at kick-off, 72% now
15′Kolos Kovalivka find the net on 13′. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–19–72
15′We published Kolos Kovalivka at 38%. Our model now makes it 72%. 0–1 · 9–19–72
30′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 0–1 · 7–19–74
33′We published Kolos Kovalivka at 38%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
45′Kolos Kovalivka ahead on 14′ through Anton Salabay. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–18–77
45′We published Kolos Kovalivka at 38%. Our model now makes it 77%. 0–1 · 5–18–77
45′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 0–1 · 5–18–77
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Daniil Khrypchuk · Kolos Kovalivka
45′HALF-TIME Veres Rivne 0–1 Kolos Kovalivka
46′Kolos Kovalivka ahead on 14′ through Anton Salabay. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–18–77
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Veres Rivne · On: Mykyta Aleksandrov · Off: Wesley Pomba
47′We published Kolos Kovalivka at 38%. Our model now makes it 77%. 0–1 · 4–18–77
48′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 0–1 · 4–18–78
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Kolos Kovalivka win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
54′Luka Stankovski scores for Kolos Kovalivka on 53′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Veres Rivne 0–2 Kolos Kovalivka · Luka Stankovski (assist Anton Salabay)
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Kolos Kovalivka win: 38% at kick-off, 97% now
55′We published Kolos Kovalivka at 38%. Our model now makes it 97%. 0–2 · 0–3–97
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Kolos Kovalivka win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Veres Rivne · On: Mykhaylo Protasevych · Off: Konstantinos Stamoulis
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Veres Rivne · On: Alagie Wally · Off: Danyil Checher
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Kolos Kovalivka · On: Nika Gagnidze · Off: Daniil Khrypchuk
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Kolos Kovalivka · On: Ardit Tahiri · Off: Denys Ndukve
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Veres Rivne · On: Guilherme Bahia · Off: André Gonçalves
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Kolos Kovalivka · On: Arinaldo Rrapaj · Off: Luka Stankovski
80′We published Kolos Kovalivka at 38%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Kolos Kovalivka · On: Ibrahim Kane · Off: Irgi Kasalla
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Veres Rivne · On: Luka Khokhashvili · Off: Vladyslav Sharay
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Kolos Kovalivka · On: Daniil Denysenko · Off: Anton Salabay
FTFULL TIME Veres Rivne 0–2 Kolos Kovalivka
FTVeres Rivne 0–2 Kolos Kovalivka · Kolos Kovalivka win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Kolos Kovalivka are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Veres Rivne 29%, draw 33%, Kolos Kovalivka 38%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Veres Rivne v Kolos KovalivkaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

Veres Rivne win29%

Draw33%

Kolos Kovalivka win38%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueAvanhard Stadium

Line-ups

Veres Rivne

4-4-2

Kolos Kovalivka

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Veres Rivne

Kolos Kovalivka

7Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · the Ukrainian Premier League

Last match: 17 Oct · the Ukrainian Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Veres Rivne	9	−5	9
10	Kolos Kovalivka	8	−3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Veres Rivne

4-4-2

91 V. Gorokh

22 K. Stamoulis

4 K. Cipot

3 S. Vovchenko

2 M. Smiyan

19 André Gonçalves

44 D. Checher

14 I. Kharatin

77 V. Sharay

7 Fabrício Yan

11 L. Pomba

Coach · O. Shandruk

Substitutes

20 · Alagie Wally

80 · Guilherme Bahia

27 · S. Migutskyi

25 · I. Sanotskyi

5 · Pavlo Bagriy

17 · M. Protasevych

1 · Pavlo Stefanyuk

99 · Vadym Samkov

30 · L. Khokhashvili

23 · M. Aleksandrov

Kolos Kovalivka

4-1-4-1

31 I. Pakholyuk

42 O. Savchuk

3 E. Kozik

6 M. Burda

2 Z. Rukhadze

45 D. Khrypchuk

90 I. Kasalla

7 O. Demchenko

10 L. Stankovski

17 A. Salabay

30 D. Ndukwe

Coach · R. Kostyshyn

Substitutes

1 · D. Matsapura

11 · A. Tahiri

22 · V. Katrych

44 · V. Shershen

33 · R. Goncharenko

21 · D. Sukhonos

47 · Daniil Denysenko

20 · N. Gagnidze

99 · A. Rrapaj

14 · I. Kane

70 · Y. Klymchuk

51 · V. Morgun

Our number · kolos kovalivka winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

38% The market42%

Us38%

~~Market~~42%

We make Kolos Kovalivka a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Veres Rivne v Kolos Kovalivka~~0.87 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 8~~9 v 10

~~The market · Kolos Kovalivka win~~42% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kolos Kovalivka win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Veres Rivne win	29%	29%	0
Draw	33%	28%	+5
Kolos Kovalivka win	38%	42%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	30%	47%	−17
Both teams to score	38%	52%	−14
Over 1.5 goals	58%	71%	−13
Over 3.5 goals	13%	27%	−14
Veres Rivne or draw	62%	58%	+4
Veres Rivne clean sheet	35%	–	–
Kolos Kovalivka clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.6%

0123450 15.6 14.6 8.0 2.9 1 12.1 13.8 6.9 2.5 2 5.6 5.7 3.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Veres Rivne down, Kolos Kovalivka across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,189 Premier League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.30 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Veres Rivne at home: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Kolos Kovalivka away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.87 goals for Veres Rivne, 1.05 for Kolos Kovalivka. Most likely score 0–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 10:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.30

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~1 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VER 0–1 KOL · KOL 0–0 VER · VER 2–1 KOL · KOL 0–1 VER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 Aug

VERES RIVNE

WDDWLL1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–2

KOLOS KOVALIVKA

DDLWWL0–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shakhtar Donetsk	9	+15	24
2	Polessya	9	+12	22
3	FC Kharkiv	8	+10	18
4	Dynamo Kyiv	8	+3	16
5	Karpaty	9	+9	15
6	LNZ Cherkasy	9	+1	14
7	Zorya Luhansk	9	−1	14
8	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	9	−3	9
9	Veres Rivne	9	−5	9
10	Kolos Kovalivka	8	−3	8
11	Bukovyna	9	−5	8
12	Livyi Bereh	8	−2	7
13	Obolon'-Brovar	8	−8	7
14	Chornomorets	8	−6	5
15	Kudrivka	9	−11	5
16	Kryvbas KR	7	−6	5