Shakhtar Donetsk v Obolon'-Brovar prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Shakhtar DonetskDrawObolon'-Brovar

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Shakhtar Donetsk 82%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shakhtar Donetsk are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shakhtar Donetsk 82%, draw 13%, Obolon'-Brovar 5%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Shakhtar Donetsk v Obolon'-BrovarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Shakhtar Donetsk win82%

Draw13%

Obolon'-Brovar win5%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueObolon Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shakhtar Donetsk

Obolon'-Brovar

7Days since last match8

Last match: 24 Oct · the Ukrainian Premier League

Last match: 23 Oct · the Ukrainian Premier League

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Shakhtar Donetsk	10	+15	25
13	Obolon'-Brovar	9	−11	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shakhtar donetsk winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

82% The market–

Us82%

We make Shakhtar Donetsk an 82% chance to win. The model expects 2.7–0.5, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shakhtar Donetsk v Obolon'-Brovar~~2.71 – 0.52

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 25 v 7~~2 v 13

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shakhtar Donetsk win	82%	–	–
Draw	13%	–	–
Obolon'-Brovar win	5%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Shakhtar Donetsk or draw	95%	–	–
Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet	60%	–	–
Obolon'-Brovar clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 14.3%

0123450 4.6 1 10.5 6.0 2 14.3 7.4 3 12.7 6.5 4 8.7 4.4 5 4.9 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Shakhtar Donetsk down, Obolon'-Brovar across0–5 goals a side shown (93.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,195 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.7% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Obolon'-Brovar away: 0.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.71 goals for Shakhtar Donetsk, 0.52 for Obolon'-Brovar. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SHA 3–1 OBO · OBO 0–6 SHA · OBO 0–2 SHA · SHA 4–0 OBO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 Aug

SHAKHTAR DONETSK

WWWWWD2–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 0–0

OBOLON'-BROVAR

DLLDWL0–0 · 0–5 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Polessya	10	+15	25
2	Shakhtar Donetsk	10	+15	25
3	FC Kharkiv	9	+11	21
4	Dynamo Kyiv	9	+5	19
5	Karpaty	9	+9	15
6	Zorya Luhansk	10	−1	15
7	LNZ Cherkasy	10	+1	15
8	Kolos Kovalivka	9	−1	11
9	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	10	−4	9
10	Veres Rivne	10	−7	9
11	Livyi Bereh	9	−2	8
12	Bukovyna	9	−5	8
13	Obolon'-Brovar	9	−11	7
14	Chornomorets	8	−6	5
15	Kudrivka	10	−13	5
16	Kryvbas KR	7	−6	5