Shakhtar Donetsk v Kolos Kovalivka prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Shakhtar Donetsk 2–1 Kolos Kovalivka SHAKHTAR DONETSK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Shakhtar Donetsk win~~66%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.183

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.107

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Shakhtar Donetsk win at 66%.
2′Much as we predicted: Shakhtar Donetsk was 66% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 65–23–12
2′KICK-OFF Shakhtar Donetsk v Kolos Kovalivka
11′Shakhtar Donetsk find the net on 10′. 0–0 · 63–25–12
12′We published Shakhtar Donetsk at 66%. Our model now makes it 88%. 1–0 · 88–9–3
12′⚽ GOAL · 10' Shakhtar Donetsk 1–0 Kolos Kovalivka
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Shakhtar Donetsk win: 66% at kick-off, 88% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 87–10–2
38′We published Shakhtar Donetsk at 66%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
38′36′: Valeriy Bondar on the scoresheet for Shakhtar Donetsk, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Shakhtar Donetsk 2–0 Kolos Kovalivka
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Shakhtar Donetsk win: 66% at kick-off, 98% now
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kolos Kovalivka · On: Luka Stankovski · Off: Arinaldo Rrapaj
53′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Vinícius Tobias · Shakhtar Donetsk
60′🟨 YELLOW · 58' A. Turan · Shakhtar Donetsk
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Shakhtar Donetsk · On: Mykola Matvienko · Off: Alan Matturro
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Shakhtar Donetsk · On: Gleiker Mendoza · Off: Prosper Obah
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Shakhtar Donetsk · On: Lassina Traore · Off: Luca Meirelles
62′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Mykyta Burda · Kolos Kovalivka
63′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Andriy Tsurikov · Kolos Kovalivka
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Kolos Kovalivka · On: Ardit Tahiri · Off: Denys Ndukve
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Kolos Kovalivka · On: Irgi Kasalla · Off: Ibrahim Kane
73′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Anton Salabay · Kolos Kovalivka
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Shakhtar Donetsk · On: Pedrinho · Off: Isaque
74′We published Shakhtar Donetsk at 66%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kolos Kovalivka · On: Daniil Denysenko · Off: Oleksandr Demchenko
84′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 96–4–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Shakhtar Donetsk 2–1 Kolos Kovalivka
85′Kolos Kovalivka pull one back on 84′ through Ardit Tahiri. 2–1. 2–1 · 97–3–0
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Shakhtar Donetsk · On: Oleg Ocheretko · Off: Dmytro Kryskiv
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Kolos Kovalivka · On: Dmytro Sukhonos · Off: Anton Salabay
91′A red card for Kolos Kovalivka on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–1 · 98–2–0
91′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Andriy Tsurikov · Kolos Kovalivka
FTFULL TIME Shakhtar Donetsk 2–1 Kolos Kovalivka
FTShakhtar Donetsk 2–1 Kolos Kovalivka · Shakhtar Donetsk win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shakhtar Donetsk are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shakhtar Donetsk 66%, draw 22%, Kolos Kovalivka 12%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Shakhtar Donetsk v Kolos KovalivkaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Shakhtar Donetsk win66%

Draw22%

Kolos Kovalivka win12%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueArena Lviv

RefereeDmitriy Panchishin

Line-ups

Shakhtar Donetsk

4-1-4-1

Kolos Kovalivka

4-1-2-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shakhtar Donetsk

Kolos Kovalivka

3Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 10 Oct · the Ukrainian Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Why are Shakhtar Donetsk playing home matches at Stamford Bridge? Everything we knowMirror Football · 14 Oct 18:00 · Shakhtar Donetsk, Stamford

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Shakhtar Donetsk

4-1-4-1

31 D. Riznyk

20 O. Karavaev

5 V. Bondar

28 A. Matturro

17 V. Tobias

29 Y. Nazaryna

99 Bruninho

8 D. Kryskiv

14 Isaque Silva

68 P. Obah

49 Luca Meirelles

Coach · Arda Turan

Substitutes

48 · D. Tvardovskyi

2 · L. Traore

6 · Marlon Gomes

9 · Kaua Elias

10 · Pedrinho

13 · Pedro Henrique

22 · M. Matvienko

24 · V. Tsukanov

25 · Gabriel Carvalho

27 · O. Ocheretko

30 · Alisson

77 · G. Mendoza

Kolos Kovalivka

4-1-2-3

31 I. Pakholyuk

2 Z. Rukhadze

6 M. Burda

33 R. Goncharenko

9 A. Tsurikov

45 D. Khrypchuk

7 O. Demchenko

99 A. Rrapaj

14 I. Kane

30 D. Ndukve

17 A. Salabay

Coach · Ruslan Kostyshyn

Substitutes

1 · D. Matsapura

51 · V. Morgun

42 · O. Savchuk

44 · V. Shershen

21 · D. Sukhonos

47 · D. Denysenko

10 · L. Stankovski

90 · I. Kasalla

11 · A. Tahiri

22 · V. Katrych

Our number · shakhtar donetsk winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

66% The market74%

Us66%

~~Market~~74%

We make Shakhtar Donetsk a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shakhtar Donetsk v Kolos Kovalivka~~1.86 – 0.65

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 16 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 21 v 8~~1 v 9

~~The market · Shakhtar Donetsk win~~74% · ours 66%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Shakhtar Donetsk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shakhtar Donetsk win	66%	74%	−8
Draw	22%	17%	+5
Kolos Kovalivka win	12%	9%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	46%	58%	−12
Both teams to score	40%	44%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	71%	78%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	25%	37%	−12
Shakhtar Donetsk or draw	88%	91%	−3
Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet	53%	–	–
Kolos Kovalivka clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.7%

0123450 9.0 4.8 1 14.7 10.2 3.2 2 13.9 8.8 2.9 3 8.7 5.5 4 4.1 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shakhtar Donetsk down, Kolos Kovalivka across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,182 Premier League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.89 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Kolos Kovalivka away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for Shakhtar Donetsk, 0.65 for Kolos Kovalivka. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.89

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~SHA 0–1 KOL · KOL 0–0 SHA · SHA 2–4 KOL · KOL 0–1 SHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 16 Aug

SHAKHTAR DONETSK

WLWWWW1–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 3–0

KOLOS KOVALIVKA

LDDLWW1–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shakhtar Donetsk	8	+14	21
2	Polessya	8	+10	19
3	Dynamo Kyiv	7	+5	16
4	FC Kharkiv	7	+9	15
5	Karpaty	8	+9	14
6	Zorya Luhansk	8	−2	11
7	LNZ Cherkasy	8	−2	11
8	Veres Rivne	9	−5	9
9	Kolos Kovalivka	7	−2	8
10	Bukovyna	8	−2	8
11	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	8	−3	8
12	Livyi Bereh	7	−1	7
13	Obolon'-Brovar	8	−8	7
14	Chornomorets	7	−5	5
15	Kryvbas KR	6	−3	5
16	Kudrivka	8	−14	2