Polessya v Obolon'-Brovar prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 09:36

Polessya 3–0 Obolon'-Brovar POLESSYA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Polessya win~~71%

~~The market said~~77%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.136

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.083

Corrected on 24 Oct: this match was first recorded as abandoned and left ungraded; it was played as scheduled, 3–0, and the grades above follow it.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Polessya win at 71%.
1′Much as we predicted: Polessya was 71% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 70–20–10
1′KICK-OFF Polessya v Obolon'-Brovar
9′A goal for Polessya on 9′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 90–8–2
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Polessya 1–0 Obolon'-Brovar
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Polessya win: 71% at kick-off, 90% now
10′We published Polessya at 71%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–8–2
14′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Eduard Sarapiy · Polessya
26′We published Polessya at 71%. Our model now makes it 89%. 1–0 · 89–9–2
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 89–9–2
45′HALF-TIME Polessya 1–0 Obolon'-Brovar
49′SECOND HALF Polessya 1–0 Obolon'-Brovar
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Polessya · On: Oleksandr Andriyevskyi · Off: Lindon Emerllahu
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Polessya · On: Oleksandr Nazarenko · Off: leandro andrade
60′We published Polessya at 71%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Polessya 2–0 Obolon'-Brovar
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Polessya win: 71% at kick-off, 99% now
61′59′: Igor Krasnopir on the scoresheet for Polessya, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Obolon'-Brovar · On: Artem Shulyanskyi · Off: Sergiy Sukhanov
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Obolon'-Brovar · On: Igor Medynskyi · Off: Andriy Matkevych
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Denys Ustymenko · Obolon'-Brovar
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Polessya · On: Oleksandr Filippov · Off: Oleg Fedor
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Polessya · On: Mykola Gayduchyk · Off: Igor Krasnopir
71′We published Polessya at 71%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Polessya 3–0 Obolon'-Brovar
72′Polessya ahead on 70′ through Vladyslav Veleten. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
73′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Obolon'-Brovar · On: Denys Teslyuk · Off: Denys Ustymenko
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Obolon'-Brovar · On: Dmytro Myshnyov · Off: Maksym Chekh
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Polessya · On: Oleksandr Ivanov · Off: Borys Krushynskyi
83′Polessya ahead on 70′ through Vladyslav Veleten. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Obolon'-Brovar · On: Taras Moroz · Off: Oleg Slobodyan
84′We published Polessya at 71%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
85′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Taras Moroz · Obolon'-Brovar
FTPolessya 3–0 Obolon'-Brovar · Polessya win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · abandoned

Polessya are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Polessya 71%, draw 20%, Obolon'-Brovar 9%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Polessya v Obolon'-BrovarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · abandoned, not graded

Polessya win71%

Draw20%

Obolon'-Brovar win9%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueTsentralnyi Stadion

Line-ups

Polessya

4-1-4-1

Obolon'-Brovar

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Polessya

Obolon'-Brovar

5Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Ukrainian Premier League

Last match: 16 Oct · the Ukrainian Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Polessya	9	+12	22
13	Obolon'-Brovar	8	−8	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Polessya

4-1-4-1

23 Y. Volynets

15 B. Mykhailichenko

44 S. Chobotenko

5 E. Sarapiy

55 B. Krushynskyi

8 R. Babenko

11 Leandro Andrade

14 L. Emërllahu

27 O. Fedor

10 V. Veleten

95 I. Krasnopir

Coach · R. Rotan

Substitutes

77 · N. Makarenko

89 · M. Gayduchyk

9 · O. Filippov

45 · M. Bragaru

25 · Oleksandr Ivanov

19 · V. Shepelev

18 · O. Andrievskyi

94 · D. Gryshkevych

31 · G. Maisuradze

16 · I. Krasniqi

4 · M. Kravchenko

7 · O. Nazarenko

Obolon'-Brovar

4-2-3-1

1 N. Fedorivskyi

28 P. Polehenko

30 K. Prokopchuk

32 A. Lomnytskyi

5 Y. Shevchenko

6 M. Chekh

8 A. Kulakovskyi

55 S. Sukhanov

10 O. Slobodyan

7 A. Matkevych

9 D. Ustymenko

Coach · O. Antonenko

Substitutes

99 · D. Teslyuk

3 · V. Ermakov

2 · D. Kapinus

78 · Vladyslav Skrygun

20 · R. Volokhatyi

13 · I. Medynskyi

15 · D. Myshnov

4 · T. Moroz

24 · E. Prokopenko

14 · A. Shulyanskyi

36 · Nikita Vorobyov

Our number · polessya winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:19 · abandoned, not graded

71% The market77%

Us71%

~~Market~~77%

We make Polessya a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 77%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Polessya v Obolon'-Brovar~~2.05 – 0.59

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 15 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 22 v 7~~2 v 13

~~The market · Polessya win~~77% · ours 71%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Polessya win The market, margin stripped

Published at 70%, 71% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 77% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Polessya win	71%	77%	−6
Draw	20%	16%	+4
Obolon'-Brovar win	9%	7%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	49%	54%	−5
Both teams to score	38%	35%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	76%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	27%	34%	−7
Polessya or draw	91%	93%	−2
Polessya clean sheet	56%	–	–
Obolon'-Brovar clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 14.7%

0123450 8.0 3.9 1 14.3 9.0 2.6 2 14.7 8.5 2.5 3 10.1 5.7 4 5.3 3.0 5 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Polessya down, Obolon'-Brovar across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,189 Premier League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Polessya at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Obolon'-Brovar away: 0.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.05 goals for Polessya, 0.59 for Obolon'-Brovar. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 10:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~POL 3–1 OBO · OBO 0–4 POL · OBO 0–0 POL · POL 4–0 OBO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 15 Aug

POLESSYA

WWWWDW2–0 · 5–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 3–1

OBOLON'-BROVAR

DDLLDW0–0 · 0–0 · 0–5 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shakhtar Donetsk	9	+15	24
2	Polessya	9	+12	22
3	FC Kharkiv	8	+10	18
4	Dynamo Kyiv	8	+3	16
5	Karpaty	9	+9	15
6	LNZ Cherkasy	9	+1	14
7	Zorya Luhansk	9	−1	14
8	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	9	−3	9
9	Veres Rivne	9	−5	9
10	Kolos Kovalivka	8	−3	8
11	Bukovyna	9	−5	8
12	Livyi Bereh	8	−2	7
13	Obolon'-Brovar	8	−8	7
14	Chornomorets	8	−6	5
15	Kudrivka	9	−11	5
16	Kryvbas KR	7	−6	5