Obolon'-Brovar v Veres Rivne prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 14:01

Obolon'-Brovar 2–0 Veres Rivne VERES RIVNE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Veres Rivne win~~42%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.798

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.732

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Veres Rivne win at 42%.
1′KICK-OFF Obolon'-Brovar v Veres Rivne
2′Much as we predicted: Veres Rivne was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 28–30–42
12′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Veres Rivne
23′21′: Artem Kulakovskyi on the scoresheet for Obolon'-Brovar. 0–0 · 26–35–39
23′We said Veres Rivne at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 61–25–14
23′⚽ GOAL · 21' Obolon'-Brovar 1–0 Veres Rivne · Artem Kulakovskyi
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Veres Rivne win: 42% at kick-off, 14% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Obolon'-Brovar win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Veres Rivne win 14%)
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Veres Rivne win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 63–25–12
41′We said Veres Rivne at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 66–24–9
45′SUBSTITUTION · 43' Obolon'-Brovar · On: Denys Ustymenko · Off: Taras Lyakh
45′HALF-TIME Obolon'-Brovar 1–0 Veres Rivne
46′SECOND HALF Obolon'-Brovar 1–0 Veres Rivne
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Veres Rivne · On: Konstantinos Stamoulis · Off: Mykhaylo Protasevych
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Veres Rivne · On: David Niyo · Off: Danyil Checher
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' David Niyo · Veres Rivne
54′🟥 RED CARD · 54' Veres Rivne
56′A red card for Veres Rivne on 54′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 72–22–6
61′We said Veres Rivne at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–21–4
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Obolon'-Brovar · On: Roman Volokhatyi · Off: Sergiy Sukhanov
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Obolon'-Brovar · On: Dmytro Kapinus · Off: Artem Shulyanskyi
65′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Sergiy Sukhanov · Obolon'-Brovar
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Pavlo Polegenko · Obolon'-Brovar
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Veres Rivne win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
81′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Veres Rivne · On: Guilherme Bahia · Off: André Gonçalves
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Veres Rivne · On: Alagie Wally · Off: Vladyslav Sharay
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Obolon'-Brovar · On: Igor Medynskyi · Off: Andriy Matkevych
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Obolon'-Brovar · On: Vitaliy Ermakov · Off: Maksym Chekh
85′Obolon'-Brovar ahead on 84′ through Igor Medynskyi. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 84' Obolon'-Brovar 2–0 Veres Rivne · Igor Medynskyi (assist Nazariy Fedorivskyi)
90′Full time, 2–0. We called Veres Rivne at 42% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Obolon'-Brovar 2–0 Veres Rivne
FTObolon'-Brovar 2–0 Veres Rivne · Veres Rivne win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Veres Rivne are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Obolon'-Brovar 27%, draw 31%, Veres Rivne 42%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Obolon'-Brovar v Veres RivneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Obolon'-Brovar win27%

Draw31%

Veres Rivne win42%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueObolon Arena

RefereeAleksandr Omelchenko

Line-ups

Obolon'-Brovar

4-2-3-1

Veres Rivne

4-4-1-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Obolon'-Brovar

Veres Rivne

28Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Sept · the Ukrainian Premier League

Last match: 9 Oct · the Ukrainian Premier League

0Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Veres Rivne	8	−3	9
15	Obolon'-Brovar	7	−10	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Obolon'-Brovar

4-2-3-1

1 N. Fedorivsky

28 P. Polegenko

30 K. Prokopchuk

32 A. Lomnytskyi

5 Y. Shevchenko

6 M. Chekh

8 A. Kulakovskyi

14 A. Shulyanskyi

55 S. Sukhanov

7 A. Matkevych

90 T. Lyakh

Coach · Oleksandr Antonenko

Substitutes

61 · V. Beba

36 · N. Vorobyov

20 · R. Volokhatyi

3 · V. Yermakov

2 · D. Kapinus

13 · I. Medynskyi

15 · D. Myshnyov

4 · T. Moroz

24 · Y. Prokopenko

78 · V. Skrygun

10 · O. Slobodyan

9 · D. Ustymenko

Veres Rivne

4-4-1-1

91 V. Gorokh

17 M. Protasevych

4 K. Cipot

3 S. Vovchenko

2 M. Smiyan

77 V. Sharay

44 D. Checher

14 I. Kharatin

19 A. Goncalves

7 F. Yan

11 Wesley Pomba

Coach · Oleg Shandruk

Substitutes

99 · V. Samkov

1 · P. Stefanyuk

5 · P. Bagriy

53 · Andrey

22 · K. Stamoulis

6 · D. Niyo

80 · G. de Jesus Lima

27 · S. Migutskyi

25 · I. Sanotskyi

20 · A. Wally

24 · R. Revakovych

Our number · veres rivne winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

42% The market39%

Us42%

~~Market~~39%

We make Veres Rivne a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Obolon'-Brovar v Veres Rivne~~0.91 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 8 Aug~~W0 D4 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 9~~15 v 8

~~The market · Veres Rivne win~~39% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Veres Rivne win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Obolon'-Brovar win	27%	30%	−3
Draw	31%	30%	+1
Veres Rivne win	42%	39%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	35%	41%	−6
Both teams to score	42%	47%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	63%	65%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	17%	22%	−5
Obolon'-Brovar or draw	58%	61%	−3
Obolon'-Brovar clean sheet	31%	–	–
Veres Rivne clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.8%

0123450 13.1 13.8 8.7 3.5 1 10.4 13.6 7.7 3.1 2 5.1 5.9 3.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Obolon'-Brovar down, Veres Rivne across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,181 Premier League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Obolon'-Brovar at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Veres Rivne away: 0.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.91 goals for Obolon'-Brovar, 1.20 for Veres Rivne. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~VER 2–0 OBO · OBO 1–1 VER · VER 0–2 OBO · OBO 0–0 VER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 8 Aug

OBOLON'-BROVAR

DDDLLD0–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–5 · 1–3 · 1–1

VERES RIVNE

DWDDWL0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shakhtar Donetsk	8	+14	21
2	Polessya	8	+10	19
3	Dynamo Kyiv	7	+5	16
4	FC Kharkiv	7	+9	15
5	Karpaty	8	+9	14
6	Zorya Luhansk	8	−2	11
7	LNZ Cherkasy	8	−2	11
8	Veres Rivne	8	−3	9
9	Kolos Kovalivka	7	−2	8
10	Bukovyna	8	−2	8
11	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	8	−3	8
12	Livyi Bereh	7	−1	7
13	Chornomorets	7	−5	5
14	Kryvbas KR	6	−3	5
15	Obolon'-Brovar	7	−10	4
16	Kudrivka	8	−14	2