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LNZ Cherkasy v Kudrivka

LNZ Cherkasy

2–1Full time

Kudrivka

Premier League · SUN 11 OCT · Tsentralnyi Stadium

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

LNZ Cherkasy 2–1 Kudrivka LNZ CHERKASY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said LNZ Cherkasy win~~54%

~~The market said~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.318

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.110

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said LNZ Cherkasy win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: LNZ Cherkasy was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–26–19
5′Much as we predicted: LNZ Cherkasy was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–27–19
10′LNZ Cherkasy find the net on 9′. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–14–5
11′LNZ Cherkasy ahead on 8′ through Talles Brener De Paula. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–14–5
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' LNZ Cherkasy win: 54% at kick-off, 53% now
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' LNZ Cherkasy win: 54% at kick-off, 81% now
12′We published LNZ Cherkasy at 54%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–14–5
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' LNZ Cherkasy win: 54% at kick-off, 81% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' LNZ Cherkasy win: 54% at kick-off, 53% now
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' LNZ Cherkasy win: 54% at kick-off, 81% now
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' LNZ Cherkasy win: 54% at kick-off, 53% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' LNZ Cherkasy win: 54% at kick-off, 53% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' LNZ Cherkasy win: 54% at kick-off, 81% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' LNZ Cherkasy win: 54% at kick-off, 53% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' LNZ Cherkasy win: 54% at kick-off, 81% now
16′LNZ Cherkasy ahead on 8′ through Talles Brener De Paula. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–14–5
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' LNZ Cherkasy win: 54% at kick-off, 53% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' LNZ Cherkasy win: 54% at kick-off, 81% now
18′We published LNZ Cherkasy at 54%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–14–5
25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Roman Didyk · LNZ Cherkasy
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 82–14–4
35′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 82–14–4
37′A red card for LNZ Cherkasy on 36′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 82–14–3
37′🟥 RED CARD · 36' Artur Ryabov · LNZ Cherkasy
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' LNZ Cherkasy win: 54% at kick-off, 82% now
42′SUBSTITUTION · 40' LNZ Cherkasy · On: Oleksandr Drambayev · Off: Mark Assinor Corrected
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' LNZ Cherkasy win: 54% at kick-off, 82% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' LNZ Cherkasy win: 54% at kick-off, 82% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' LNZ Cherkasy win: 54% at kick-off, 82% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' LNZ Cherkasy win: 54% at kick-off, 82% now
45′HALF-TIME LNZ Cherkasy 1–0 Kudrivka
46′SECOND HALF LNZ Cherkasy 1–0 Kudrivka
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kudrivka · On: Yevgeniy Pasich · Off: Oleksandr Beljaev Corrected
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' LNZ Cherkasy · On: Yakubu adam · Off: Yegor Tverdokhlib Corrected
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' LNZ Cherkasy · On: Gennadiy Pasich · Off: Tedi Cara Corrected
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' LNZ Cherkasy 2–0 Kudrivka · Talles Brener De Paula
48′⚽ GOAL · 47' LNZ Cherkasy 2–0 Kudrivka · Gennadiy Pasich
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' LNZ Cherkasy 2–0 Kudrivka · Gennadiy Pasich
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Dmytro Semenov · Kudrivka
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Kudrivka · On: Rodion Plaksa · Off: Yevgeniy Smyrnyi Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Kudrivka · On: Mykola Vechurko · Off: Artur Dumanyuk Corrected
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' LNZ Cherkasy 2–1 Kudrivka · Gennadiy Pasich
69′⚽ GOAL · 68' LNZ Cherkasy 2–1 Kudrivka · Raymond Owusu
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Kudrivka · On: Sergiy Sten · Off: Denys Svityukha Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' LNZ Cherkasy · On: Andriy Kitela · Off: Vitaliy Roman Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Kudrivka · On: Reynaldihno Verley · Off: Dmytro Semenov Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' LNZ Cherkasy · On: Bogdan Slyubyk · Off: Papa Ndiaga Yade Corrected
FTFULL TIME LNZ Cherkasy 2–1 Kudrivka
FTLNZ Cherkasy 2–1 Kudrivka · LNZ Cherkasy win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

LNZ Cherkasy win54%

Draw27%

Kudrivka win18%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

VenueTsentralnyi Stadium

RefereeYevtukhov Dmytro

Line-ups

LNZ Cherkasy

4-4-2

Kudrivka

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

LNZ Cherkasy

Kudrivka

21Days since last match8

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	LNZ Cherkasy	7	−3	8
16	Kudrivka	7	−13	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

LNZ Cherkasy

4-4-2

1 D. Ledviy

93 V. Roman

25 O. Gorin

29 R. Didyk

17 D. Kuzyk

37 P. Yade

16 A. Ryabov

30 Talles Brener

77 T. Cara

90 M. Assinor

9 Y. Tverdokhlib

Coach · Vitaliy Ponomaryov

Substitutes

72 · K. Samoylenko

12 · O. Palamarchuk

4 · A. Dajko

92 · B. Slyubyk

14 · O. Drambayev

75 · A. Kitela

8 · A. Yakubu

20 · M. Tlumak

11 · G. Pasich

49 · M. Donyk

99 · C. David

Kudrivka

3-4-3

37 A. Yashkov

22 B. Veklyak

50 D. Semenov

69 Y. Potimkov

7 I. Petryak

19 A. Dumanyuk

8 Y. Smyrnyi

91 M. Melnychuk

20 D. Svityukha

24 R. Owusu

21 O. Belyaev

Coach · Oleksandr Protchenko

Substitutes

9 · R. Verley

14 · K. Makosso

1 · K. Lavuta

29 · V. Adeoye

17 · M. Serdyuk

25 · M. Ogarkov

71 · S. Sten

10 · R. Plaksa

42 · Y. Pasich

12 · O. Chobitko

70 · D. Yesin

6 · M. Vechurko

Our number · lnz cherkasy winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

54% The market73%

Us54%

~~Market~~73%

We make LNZ Cherkasy a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 19 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lnz cherkasy win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 77% to 73% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
LNZ Cherkasy win	54%	73%	−19
Draw	27%	18%	+10
Kudrivka win	18%	9%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	40%	52%	−12
Both teams to score	42%	39%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	67%	75%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	20%	31%	−12
LNZ Cherkasy or draw	82%	91%	−10
LNZ Cherkasy clean sheet	47%	–	–
Kudrivka clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.9%

0123450 11.3 7.3 3.0 1 14.9 12.3 4.5 2 11.6 8.7 3.3 3 5.9 4.4 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+LNZ Cherkasy down, Kudrivka across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,177 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.4% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kudrivka away: 1.17 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for LNZ Cherkasy, 0.76 for Kudrivka. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 10:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KUD 1–0 LNZ · LNZ 1–0 KUD

Form · last six in Premier League

LNZ CHERKASY

LWLDWL0–3 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 0–3

KUDRIVKA

DDLLLL0–0 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–5 · 2–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shakhtar Donetsk	8	+14	21
2	Polessya	7	+10	18
3	FC Kharkiv	7	+9	15
4	Karpaty	7	+10	14
5	Dynamo Kyiv	6	+4	13
6	Veres Rivne	8	−3	9
7	Kolos Kovalivka	7	−2	8
8	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	8	−3	8
9	LNZ Cherkasy	7	−3	8
10	Zorya Luhansk	7	−4	8
11	Livyi Bereh	6	+1	7
12	Bukovyna	7	−2	7
13	Kryvbas KR	6	−3	5
14	Chornomorets	7	−5	5
15	Obolon'-Brovar	7	−10	4
16	Kudrivka	7	−13	2