Livyi Bereh v Zorya Luhansk prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 14:01

Livyi Bereh 1–3 Zorya Luhansk ZORYA LUHANSK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zorya Luhansk win~~40%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.548

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.563

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zorya Luhansk win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Zorya Luhansk 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 29–31–40
1′KICK-OFF Livyi Bereh v Zorya Luhansk
2′Little has changed for our model: Zorya Luhansk 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 29–31–40
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Livyi Bereh 0–0 Zorya Luhansk
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Livyi Bereh 0–1 Zorya Luhansk
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Jordan · Zorya Luhansk
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Livyi Bereh 0–2 Zorya Luhansk · Ivan Nesterenko
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Livyi Bereh 0–2 Zorya Luhansk · Artem Machelyuk
45′HALF-TIME Livyi Bereh 0–2 Zorya Luhansk
46′SECOND HALF Livyi Bereh 0–2 Zorya Luhansk
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Livyi Bereh · On: Diego · Off: Vikentii Voloshyn Corrected
47′⚽ GOAL · 46' Livyi Bereh 0–2 Zorya Luhansk · Artem Machelyuk (assist S. Bah)
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Zorya Luhansk · On: Igor Gorbach · Off: Domagoj Jelavić Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Livyi Bereh · On: Artem Chelyadin · Off: Evgen Banada Corrected
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Livyi Bereh 0–3 Zorya Luhansk · Artem Machelyuk
70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Livyi Bereh 0–3 Zorya Luhansk · Igor Gorbach
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Livyi Bereh 1–3 Zorya Luhansk · Igor Gorbach
75′⚽ GOAL · 73' Livyi Bereh 1–3 Zorya Luhansk · Diego
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Livyi Bereh · On: Roman Heresh · Off: Dmytro Shastal Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Zorya Luhansk · On: Jakov Basic · Off: Kyrylo Dryshlyuk Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Zorya Luhansk · On: Vladlen Yurchenko · Off: S. Bah Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Livyi Bereh · On: Ilya Kvasnytsya · Off: Nazariy Vorobchak Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Zorya Luhansk · On: Gabriel Eskinja · Off: Igor Perduta Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Livyi Bereh · On: Ilya Kvasnytsya · Off: Nazariy Vorobchak Corrected
FTFULL TIME Livyi Bereh 1–3 Zorya Luhansk
FTLivyi Bereh 1–3 Zorya Luhansk · Zorya Luhansk win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 11:30 · locked at kick-off

Livyi Bereh win29%

Draw32%

Zorya Luhansk win40%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 11:00

VenueStadium Livyi Bereh

RefereeMikola Balakin

Line-ups

Livyi Bereh

4-2-3-1

Zorya Luhansk

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Livyi Bereh

Zorya Luhansk

23Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Zorya Luhansk	7	−4	8
12	Livyi Bereh	6	+1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Livyi Bereh

4-2-3-1

12 R. Zhmurko

2 O. Sokolov

97 A. Yakymiv

13 I. Kovalenko

6 Sidnney

44 E. Banada

8 O. Kryvoruchko

17 N. Vorobchak

15 V. Voloshyn

7 D. Shastal

20 P. Fall

Coach · Oleksandr Ryabokon

Substitutes

74 · D. Ignatenko

4 · V. Bondarenko

3 · I. Kotukha

14 · S. Tatolna

25 · S. Kosovskyi

38 · A. Chelyadin

10 · Diego Andradina

90 · N. Bonsu

11 · I. Kvasnytsya

9 · Wendell

21 · N. Voloshyn

37 · R. Geresh

Zorya Luhansk

4-2-3-1

1 O. Saputin

44 I. Perduta

55 Jordan

77 B. Kushnirenko

39 A. Machelyuk

8 K. Dryshlyuk

18 M. Boyko

88 S. Bah

30 I. Nesterenko

27 D. Jelavic

28 P. Budkivskyi

Coach · Viktor Skrypnyk

Substitutes

25 · V. Rybak

23 · l. Karavashchenko

40 · Italo Henrique

10 · Juninho

21 · J. Basic

5 · A. Janjic

6 · D. Popara

80 · V. Yurchenko

14 · A. Glushchenko

11 · I. Gorbach

4 · G. Eskinja

Our number · zorya luhansk winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 10 Oct 04:00 · locked at kick-off

40% The market39%

Us40%

~~Market~~39%

We make Zorya Luhansk a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.9–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · zorya luhansk win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. The market has gone from 37% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Livyi Bereh win	29%	33%	−4
Draw	32%	28%	+3
Zorya Luhansk win	40%	39%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	33%	49%	−17
Both teams to score	40%	55%	−15
Over 1.5 goals	60%	72%	−12
Over 3.5 goals	15%	29%	−15
Livyi Bereh or draw	60%	61%	−1
Livyi Bereh clean sheet	33%	–	–
Zorya Luhansk clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.4%

0123450 14.4 14.2 8.3 3.1 1 11.3 13.7 7.2 2.7 2 5.5 5.9 3.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Livyi Bereh down, Zorya Luhansk across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,180 Premier League matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Livyi Bereh at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Zorya Luhansk away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.90 goals for Livyi Bereh, 1.11 for Zorya Luhansk. Most likely score 0–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 11:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ZOR 2–1 LIV · LIV 0–2 ZOR

Form · last six in Premier League

LIVYI BEREH

DDDDLW0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–0

ZORYA LUHANSK

LWLDDL1–3 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shakhtar Donetsk	8	+14	21
2	Polessya	8	+10	19
3	Dynamo Kyiv	7	+5	16
4	FC Kharkiv	7	+9	15
5	Karpaty	8	+9	14
6	LNZ Cherkasy	8	−2	11
7	Veres Rivne	8	−3	9
8	Kolos Kovalivka	7	−2	8
9	Bukovyna	8	−2	8
10	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	8	−3	8
11	Zorya Luhansk	7	−4	8
12	Livyi Bereh	6	+1	7
13	Kryvbas KR	6	−3	5
14	Chornomorets	7	−5	5
15	Obolon'-Brovar	7	−10	4
16	Kudrivka	8	−14	2