Kryvbas KR v LNZ Cherkasy prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Kryvbas KR 0–3 LNZ Cherkasy KRYVBAS KR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kryvbas KR win~~37%

~~The market said~~23%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.681

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.352

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kryvbas KR win at 37%.
3′Much as we predicted: Kryvbas KR was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–30–33
3′KICK-OFF Kryvbas KR v LNZ Cherkasy
8′We said Kryvbas KR at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–22–63
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Kryvbas KR 0–1 LNZ Cherkasy
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Kryvbas KR win: 37% at kick-off, 15% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' LNZ Cherkasy win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Kryvbas KR win 15%)
9′LNZ Cherkasy ahead on 7′ through Tedi Cara. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–22–64
11′We said Kryvbas KR at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 11–22–67
37′We said Kryvbas KR at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–68
45′HALF-TIME Kryvbas KR 0–1 LNZ Cherkasy
46′SECOND HALF Kryvbas KR 0–1 LNZ Cherkasy
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Kryvbas KR win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kryvbas KR · On: Giovany Herbert · Off: Denys Pidgurskyi
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kryvbas KR · On: Yackson Stiven Rivas · Off: Bar Lin
60′We said Kryvbas KR at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' LNZ Cherkasy · On: Korede Yemi Adedoyin · Off: Denys Kuzyk
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Yaroslav Shevchenko · Kryvbas KR
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Kryvbas KR · On: Assan Seck · Off: Oleksandr Kamenskyi
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Kryvbas KR 0–2 LNZ Cherkasy
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' LNZ Cherkasy · On: Gennadiy Pasich · Off: Tedi Cara
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' LNZ Cherkasy · On: Yegor Tverdokhlib · Off: Talles Brener De Paula
72′Papa Ndiaga Yade scores for LNZ Cherkasy on 70′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
FTFULL TIME Kryvbas KR 0–3 LNZ Cherkasy
FTKryvbas KR 0–3 LNZ Cherkasy · Kryvbas KR win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Kryvbas KR just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Kryvbas KR 37%, draw 30%, LNZ Cherkasy 33%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Kryvbas KR v LNZ CherkasyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kryvbas KR win37%

Draw30%

LNZ Cherkasy win33%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueHirnyk Stadium

RefereeOleksandr Afanasev

Line-ups

Kryvbas KR

4-1-4-1

LNZ Cherkasy

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kryvbas KR

LNZ Cherkasy

30Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Sept · the Ukrainian Premier League

Last match: 11 Oct · the Ukrainian Premier League

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	LNZ Cherkasy	8	−2	11
16	Kryvbas KR	6	−3	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kryvbas KR

4-1-4-1

12 O. Kemkin

22 J. Machado

4 V. Vilivald

3 J. Mpanzu

16 Thiago Borges

6 D. Pidgurskyi

18 B. Lin

8 Y. Shevchenko Volodymyrovych

17 R. Nawi

21 O. Kamenskyi

9 S. Satchwell

Coach · Patrick van Leeuwen

Substitutes

1 · B. Khoma

41 · A. Danladi

2 · O. Tovarnytskyi

15 · J. Jones

28 · S. Cuiza

27 · D. Godya

7 · Y. Rivas

24 · V. Mulyk

14 · A. Seck

5 · V. Kulbachuk

25 · T. Butenko

10 · G. Herbert

LNZ Cherkasy

5-3-2

1 D. Ledviy

93 V. Roman

25 O. Gorin

92 B. Slyubyk

14 O. Drambayev

17 D. Kuzyk

8 A. Yakubu

29 R. Didyk

30 Talles Brener

37 P. Yade

77 T. Cara

Coach · Vitaliy Ponomaryov

Substitutes

72 · K. Samoylenko

12 · O. Palamarchuk

75 · A. Kitela

4 · A. Dajko

11 · G. Pasich

99 · C. David

9 · Y. Tverdokhlib

90 · M. Assinor

20 · M. Tlumak

49 · M. Donyk

Our number · kryvbas kr winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

37% The market23%

Us37%

~~Market~~23%

We make Kryvbas KR a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 23%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kryvbas KR v LNZ Cherkasy~~1.18 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 1 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 11~~16 v 7

~~The market · Kryvbas KR win~~23% · ours 37%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kryvbas KR win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 23% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kryvbas KR win	37%	23%	+14
Draw	30%	26%	+4
LNZ Cherkasy win	33%	52%	−19
Over 2.5 goals	39%	52%	−13
Both teams to score	46%	54%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	67%	75%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	20%	32%	−12
Kryvbas KR or draw	67%	48%	+19
Kryvbas KR clean sheet	34%	–	–
LNZ Cherkasy clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 11.3 10.6 6.1 2.3 1 11.6 13.7 7.1 2.6 2 7.2 7.7 4.2 3 2.9 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kryvbas KR down, LNZ Cherkasy across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,185 Premier League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kryvbas KR at home: 2.00 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). LNZ Cherkasy away: 0.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Kryvbas KR, 1.09 for LNZ Cherkasy. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 10:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~KRY 0–3 LNZ · LNZ 0–0 KRY · LNZ 0–0 KRY · KRY 3–1 LNZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 1 Aug

KRYVBAS KR

LWDLDL1–4 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–1

LNZ CHERKASY

WLDWLW2–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shakhtar Donetsk	9	+15	24
2	Polessya	8	+10	19
3	Dynamo Kyiv	7	+5	16
4	FC Kharkiv	7	+9	15
5	Karpaty	8	+9	14
6	Zorya Luhansk	9	−1	14
7	LNZ Cherkasy	8	−2	11
8	Veres Rivne	9	−5	9
9	Kolos Kovalivka	8	−3	8
10	Bukovyna	9	−5	8
11	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	8	−3	8
12	Livyi Bereh	7	−1	7
13	Obolon'-Brovar	8	−8	7
14	Chornomorets	8	−6	5
15	Kudrivka	9	−11	5
16	Kryvbas KR	6	−3	5