Kolos Kovalivka v Polessya prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Kolos KovalivkaDrawPolessya

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Polessya 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Polessya are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kolos Kovalivka 23%, draw 31%, Polessya 46%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Kolos Kovalivka v PolessyaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Kolos Kovalivka win23%

Draw31%

Polessya win46%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueKolos Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kolos Kovalivka

Polessya

8Days since last match8

Last match: 23 Oct · the Ukrainian Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · polessya winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Polessya a 46% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.3, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kolos Kovalivka v Polessya~~0.80 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 25~~8 v 1

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kolos Kovalivka win	23%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Polessya win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Kolos Kovalivka or draw	54%	–	–
Kolos Kovalivka clean sheet	29%	–	–
Polessya clean sheet	46%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.3%

0123450 13.9 15.3 10.1 4.3 1 9.4 13.3 7.9 3.3 2 4.1 5.0 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kolos Kovalivka down, Polessya across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,195 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.7% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 0 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kolos Kovalivka at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Polessya away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.80 goals for Kolos Kovalivka, 1.26 for Polessya. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~KOL 0–2 POL · POL 0–1 KOL · KOL 1–1 POL · POL 1–1 KOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 4 Sept

KOLOS KOVALIVKA

DLWWLW2–2 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–0

POLESSYA

WWWDWW5–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Polessya	10	+15	25
2	Shakhtar Donetsk	10	+15	25
3	FC Kharkiv	9	+11	21
4	Dynamo Kyiv	9	+5	19
5	Karpaty	9	+9	15
6	Zorya Luhansk	10	−1	15
7	LNZ Cherkasy	10	+1	15
8	Kolos Kovalivka	9	−1	11
9	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	10	−4	9
10	Veres Rivne	10	−7	9
11	Livyi Bereh	9	−2	8
12	Bukovyna	9	−5	8
13	Obolon'-Brovar	9	−11	7
14	Chornomorets	8	−6	5
15	Kudrivka	10	−13	5
16	Kryvbas KR	7	−6	5