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Kolos Kovalivka v Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

Kolos Kovalivka

3–1Full time

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · Kolos Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 19:03

Kolos Kovalivka 3–1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi KOLOS KOVALIVKA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kolos Kovalivka win~~40%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.537

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.415

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kolos Kovalivka win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Kolos Kovalivka v Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
2′Much as we predicted: Kolos Kovalivka was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–31–29
9′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
24′Much as we predicted: Kolos Kovalivka was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–37–27
33′⚽ GOAL · 25' Kolos Kovalivka 1–0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · Denys Ndukve (assist Oleksandr Demchenko)
34′Much as we predicted: Kolos Kovalivka was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 34% now. 0–0 · 34–40–25
34′Denys Ndukve scores for Kolos Kovalivka on 25′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–40–25
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Kolos Kovalivka win 34%)
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Kolos Kovalivka 1–1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · Denys Ndukve
35′⚽ GOAL · 33' Kolos Kovalivka 1–1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · Artem Kozak (assist Yevgen Zaporozhets)
36′33′ and it is 1–1: Artem Kozak on the scoresheet for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. 1–1 · 34–41–25
38′Much as we predicted: Kolos Kovalivka was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 33% now. 1–1 · 33–42–25
FTFULL TIME Kolos Kovalivka 3–1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
FTKolos Kovalivka 3–1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · Kolos Kovalivka win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kolos Kovalivka win40%

Draw32%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 11:00

Venue · Kolos Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Kolos Kovalivka

4-1-4-1

31 I. Pakholyuk

2 Z. Rukhadze

3 E. Kozik

6 M. Burda

9 A. Tsurikov

45 D. Khrypchuk

14 I. Kane

7 O. Demchenko

99 A. Rrapaj

17 A. Salabay

30 D. Ndukve

Coach · Ruslan Kostyshyn

Substitutes

1 · D. Matsapura

51 · V. Morgun

42 · O. Savchuk

44 · V. Shershen

33 · R. Goncharenko

21 · D. Sukhonos

47 · D. Denysenko

10 · L. Stankovski

11 · A. Tahiri

20 · N. Gagnidze

90 · I. Kasalla

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

4-4-1-1

71 N. Fedotov

25 V. Gorin

13 S. Repaj

77 N. Coch

97 O. Klymets

99 C. Rojas

28 A. Lipovuz

5 E. Zaporozhets

70 I. Kyryukhantsev

59 A. Kozak

20 V. Sydun

Coach · Sergiy Nagornyak

Substitutes

31 · O. Bilyk

22 · A. Vavshko

3 · S. Grygorashchuk

8 · M. Myronyuk

15 · M. Yevpak

11 · A. Boyko

17 · I. Bendera

21 · Nene

14 · R. Tavares

27 · D. Vashchenko

4 · V. Moroz

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Kolos Kovalivka

4-1-4-1

31 I. Pakholyuk

2 Z. Rukhadze

3 E. Kozik

6 M. Burda

9 A. Tsurikov

45 D. Khrypchuk

14 I. Kane

7 O. Demchenko

99 A. Rrapaj

17 A. Salabay

30 D. Ndukve

Coach · Ruslan Kostyshyn

Substitutes

1 · D. Matsapura

51 · V. Morgun

42 · O. Savchuk

44 · V. Shershen

33 · R. Goncharenko

21 · D. Sukhonos

47 · D. Denysenko

10 · L. Stankovski

11 · A. Tahiri

20 · N. Gagnidze

90 · I. Kasalla

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

4-4-1-1

71 N. Fedotov

25 V. Gorin

13 S. Repaj

77 N. Coch

97 O. Klymets

99 C. Rojas

28 A. Lipovuz

5 E. Zaporozhets

70 I. Kyryukhantsev

59 A. Kozak

20 V. Sydun

Coach · Sergiy Nagornyak

Substitutes

31 · O. Bilyk

22 · A. Vavshko

3 · S. Grygorashchuk

8 · M. Myronyuk

15 · M. Yevpak

11 · A. Boyko

17 · I. Bendera

21 · Nene

14 · R. Tavares

27 · D. Vashchenko

4 · V. Moroz

Our number · kolos kovalivka winPublished 10 Oct 11:44

40% The market47%

Us40%

~~Market~~47%

We make Kolos Kovalivka a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kolos kovalivka win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kolos Kovalivka win	40%	47%	−7
Draw	32%	29%	+3
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win	28%	24%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	33%	44%	−10
Both teams to score	40%	48%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	61%	68%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	15%	24%	−9
Kolos Kovalivka or draw	72%	76%	−4
Kolos Kovalivka clean sheet	41%	–	–
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.1%

0123450 14.1 11.1 5.3 1 14.1 13.8 5.9 2 8.4 7.4 3.3 3 3.2 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kolos Kovalivka down, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,175 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kolos Kovalivka at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Kolos Kovalivka, 0.90 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. Most likely score 0–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 10:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~EPI 4–0 KOL · KOL 1–0 EPI

Form · last six in Premier League

KOLOS KOVALIVKA

LLDDLW0–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 3–2

EPITSENTR DUNAYIVTSI

LDWDLL0–2 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shakhtar Donetsk	8	+14	21
2	Polessya	7	+10	18
3	Karpaty	7	+10	14
4	Dynamo Kyiv	6	+4	13
5	FC Kharkiv	6	+8	12
6	Veres Rivne	8	−3	9
7	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	7	−1	8
8	LNZ Cherkasy	7	−3	8
9	Zorya Luhansk	7	−4	8
10	Livyi Bereh	6	+1	7
11	Bukovyna	7	−2	7
12	Kryvbas KR	6	−3	5
13	Kolos Kovalivka	6	−4	5
14	Chornomorets	6	−4	5
15	Obolon'-Brovar	7	−10	4
16	Kudrivka	7	−13	2