Karpaty v Kudrivka prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KarpatyDrawKudrivka

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Karpaty 62%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Karpaty are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Karpaty 62%, draw 22%, Kudrivka 16%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Karpaty v KudrivkaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Karpaty win62%

Draw22%

Kudrivka win16%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueUkraina Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Karpaty

Kudrivka

13Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · the Ukrainian Premier League

Last match: 23 Oct · the Ukrainian Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Karpaty	9	+9	15
15	Kudrivka	10	−13	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · karpaty winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Karpaty a 62% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Karpaty v Kudrivka~~2.07 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 15 v 5~~5 v 15

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karpaty win	62%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Kudrivka win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Karpaty or draw	84%	–	–
Karpaty clean sheet	40%	–	–
Kudrivka clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.5%

0123450 5.9 4.2 2.3 1 9.8 10.1 4.5 2 10.5 9.6 4.5 3 7.2 6.5 3.1 4 3.8 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karpaty down, Kudrivka across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,195 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.7% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Karpaty at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Kudrivka away: 0.83 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.07 goals for Karpaty, 0.93 for Kudrivka. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KAR 1–1 KUD · KUD 2–2 KAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

KARPATY

DLWDLD1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–2

KUDRIVKA

LLLLWL1–5 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Polessya	10	+15	25
2	Shakhtar Donetsk	10	+15	25
3	FC Kharkiv	9	+11	21
4	Dynamo Kyiv	9	+5	19
5	Karpaty	9	+9	15
6	Zorya Luhansk	10	−1	15
7	LNZ Cherkasy	10	+1	15
8	Kolos Kovalivka	9	−1	11
9	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	10	−4	9
10	Veres Rivne	10	−7	9
11	Livyi Bereh	9	−2	8
12	Bukovyna	9	−5	8
13	Obolon'-Brovar	9	−11	7
14	Chornomorets	8	−6	5
15	Kudrivka	10	−13	5
16	Kryvbas KR	7	−6	5