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Epitsentr Dunayivtsi v FC Kharkiv

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1–2Full time
FC Kharkiv

Premier League · SAT 24 OCT · Roman Shukhevych Ternopil city stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1–2 FC Kharkiv FC KHARKIV WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said FC Kharkiv win46%
The market said58%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.441
The market’s Brier score0.270

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FC Kharkiv win at 46%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: FC Kharkiv was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 26–28–46
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Epitsentr Dunayivtsi v FC Kharkiv
  4. 32′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Raúl Tavares Pulido · Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
  5. 35′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Mykola Myronyuk · Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
  6. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Carlos Humberto Rojas Mosquera · Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
  7. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Artem Hennadiiovych Smoliakov · FC Kharkiv
  8. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' FC Kharkiv win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
  9. 43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was FC Kharkiv win 39%)
  10. 45′48′: Ramik Gadzhiev on the scoresheet for FC Kharkiv. 0–0 · 23–42–36
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0–0 FC Kharkiv
  12. 48′We said FC Kharkiv at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 22–44–34
  13. 51′SECOND HALF Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0–0 FC Kharkiv
  14. 52′We published FC Kharkiv at 46%. Our model now makes it 79%. 0–1 · 4–17–79
  15. 52′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 4–17–79
  16. 52′⚽ GOAL · 48' Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0–1 FC Kharkiv · Ramik Gadzhiev (assist Baton Zabergja)
  17. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' FC Kharkiv win: 46% at kick-off, 79% now
  18. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' FC Kharkiv win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 45%)
  19. 55′We expected about 2.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 20–48–31 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  20. 55′We published FC Kharkiv at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 4–17–80
  21. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · On: Vladyslav Moroz · Off: Raúl Tavares Pulido
  22. 59′We said FC Kharkiv at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 19–51–29 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  23. 66′Epitsentr Dunayivtsi level it on 65′ through Artem Kozak. 1–1. 1–1 · 17–58–25
  24. 66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1–1 FC Kharkiv · Artem Kozak (assist Carlos Humberto Rojas Mosquera)
  25. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' FC Kharkiv win: 46% at kick-off, 25% now
  26. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was FC Kharkiv win 83%)
  27. 67′We said FC Kharkiv at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 16–59–24
  28. 74′We said FC Kharkiv at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 13–68–19
  29. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Peter Itodo · FC Kharkiv
  30. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' FC Kharkiv win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
  31. 79′We said FC Kharkiv at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 10–76–14
  32. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Kharkiv · On: Sebastian Alejandro Castillo Perez · Off: Peter Itodo
  33. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Kharkiv · On: Ermir Rashica · Off: Oleksandr Yatsyk
  34. 84′We said FC Kharkiv at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 6–86–8
  35. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' FC Kharkiv win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
  36. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · On: Ivan Bendera · Off: Igor Kyryukhantsev
  37. 90′We said FC Kharkiv at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–92–4
  38. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Ivan Bendera · Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
  39. 92′We published FC Kharkiv at 46%. Our model now makes it 98%. 1–2 · 0–2–98
  40. 92′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–2–98
  41. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1–2 FC Kharkiv
  42. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' FC Kharkiv win: 46% at kick-off, 98% now
  43. 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' FC Kharkiv win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 95%)
  44. 93′Sebastian Alejandro Castillo Perez scores for FC Kharkiv on 90′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–2–98
  45. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · On: Kyrylo Kovalets · Off: Vadym Sydun
  46. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Sebastian Alejandro Castillo Perez · FC Kharkiv
  47. FTFULL TIME Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1–2 FC Kharkiv
  48. FTEpitsentr Dunayivtsi 1–2 FC Kharkiv · FC Kharkiv win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Kharkiv are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 26%, draw 28%, FC Kharkiv 46%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi v FC KharkivBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win26%
Draw28%
FC Kharkiv win46%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueRoman Shukhevych Ternopil city stadium

Line-ups

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

4-1-4-1

FC Kharkiv

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

FC Kharkiv

6Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · the Ukrainian Premier League

Last match: 19 Oct · the Ukrainian Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4FC Kharkiv8+1018
9Epitsentr Dunayivtsi9−39

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

4-1-4-1

31 O. Bilyk

70 I. Kyryukhantsev

13 S. Repaj

77 Nil Coch

97 O. Klymets

28 A. Lipovuz

99 Carlos Rojas

14 Raúl Tavares

8 M. Myronyuk

59 A. Kozak

20 V. Sydun

Coach · Sergiy Nagornyak

Substitutes

25 · vitalii horin

71 · N. Fedotov

11 · A. Boyko

17 · Ivan Bendera

3 · S. Grygorashchuk

6 · K. Kovalets

4 · V. Moroz

21 · Nene

22 · A. Vavshko

15 · M. Evpak

FC Kharkiv

4-4-2

1 H. Ermakov

27 I. Krupskyi

13 V. Salyuk

31 A. Shabanov

29 A. Smolyakov

14 R. Gadzhiev

5 I. Kalyuzhnyi

18 Y. Pavlyuk

7 B. Zabërgja

8 O. Yatsyk

98 P. Itodo

Coach · M. Bartulović

Substitutes

9 · D. Antyukh

70 · I. Bagriy

11 · S. Castillo

37 · V. Dubko

25 · I. Kogut

88 · A. Korol

24 · O. Martynyuk

23 · Y. Protsenko

19 · E. Rashica

30 · D. Varakuta

Our number · fc kharkiv winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
46% The market58%
Us46%
Market58%

We make FC Kharkiv a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Epitsentr Dunayivtsi v FC Kharkiv1.00 – 1.42
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 16 AugW1 D2 L3 · W5 D0 L1
Table places · points 9 v 189 v 4
The market · FC Kharkiv win58% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55%60% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 10:49
Our probability · FC Kharkiv win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win26%18%+8
Draw28%24%+4
FC Kharkiv win46%58%−12
Over 2.5 goals43%51%−8
Both teams to score48%50%−2
Over 1.5 goals70%74%−4
Over 3.5 goals23%31%−8
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or draw54%42%+12
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi clean sheet25%––
FC Kharkiv clean sheet37%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%
0123450 10.0 12.0 8.9 4.2 1 8.4 13.0 8.6 4.1 2 4.5 6.2 4.3 2.1 3 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Epitsentr Dunayivtsi down, FC Kharkiv across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.52 of 5
Both scored3 of 5
Last meetingsFCK 1–1 EPI · EPI 0–0 FCK · FCK 1–3 EPI · EPI 2–1 FCK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 16 Aug

EPITSENTR DUNAYIVTSI

WDLLLD3–0 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 2–2

FC KHARKIV

LWWWWW0–1 · 3–0 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Polessya10+1525
2Shakhtar Donetsk9+1524
3Dynamo Kyiv9+519
4FC Kharkiv8+1018
5Karpaty9+915
6LNZ Cherkasy9+114
7Zorya Luhansk9−114
8Kolos Kovalivka9−111
9Epitsentr Dunayivtsi9−39
10Veres Rivne10−79
11Bukovyna9−58
12Livyi Bereh8−27
13Obolon'-Brovar9−117
14Chornomorets8−65
15Kudrivka10−135
16Kryvbas KR7−65

The competition's standings before kick-off.