Dynamo Kyiv v Kudrivka prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 13:31

Dynamo Kyiv 3–1 Kudrivka DYNAMO KYIV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dynamo Kyiv win~~74%

~~The market said~~81%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.102

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.055

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dynamo Kyiv win at 74%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Dynamo Kyiv 74% before kick-off, 74% now. 0–0 · 74–16–10
1′KICK-OFF Dynamo Kyiv v Kudrivka
29′A goal for Dynamo Kyiv on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 88–9–3
29′⚽ GOAL · 28' Dynamo Kyiv 1–0 Kudrivka
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Dynamo Kyiv win: 74% at kick-off, 88% now
30′We said Dynamo Kyiv at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–1
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Dynamo Kyiv 2–0 Kudrivka
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Dynamo Kyiv win: 74% at kick-off, 97% now
31′GOAL DISALLOWED · 31' Dynamo Kyiv
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Dynamo Kyiv win: 74% at kick-off, 88% now
45′HALF-TIME Dynamo Kyiv 1–0 Kudrivka
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kudrivka · On: Rodion Plaksa · Off: Ivan Petryak
46′SECOND HALF Dynamo Kyiv 1–0 Kudrivka
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Dynamo Kyiv 2–0 Kudrivka
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Dynamo Kyiv win: 74% at kick-off, 98% now
48′46′: Mykola Mykhaylenko on the scoresheet for Dynamo Kyiv, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
61′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Taras Mykhavko · Dynamo Kyiv
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Artur Dumanyuk · Kudrivka
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Dynamo Kyiv · On: Shola Ogundana · Off: Nazar Voloshyn
66′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Oleksandr Beljaev · Kudrivka
70′Kudrivka pull one back on 67′ through Faites Prévu Kaya Makosso. 2–1. 2–1 · 90–9–1
70′We said Dynamo Kyiv at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Dynamo Kyiv win: 74% at kick-off, 90% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Dynamo Kyiv · On: Eduardo Guerrero · Off: Matviy Ponomarenko
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Dynamo Kyiv · On: Oleksandr Pikhalyonok · Off: Mykola Shaparenko
81′We said Dynamo Kyiv at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Dynamo Kyiv 3–1 Kudrivka
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Dynamo Kyiv win: 74% at kick-off, over 99% now
82′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
82′Oleksandr Pikhalyonok scores for Dynamo Kyiv on 79′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Dynamo Kyiv · On: Vladyslav Kabaev · Off: Andriy Yarmolenko
89′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Rodion Plaksa · Kudrivka
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Kudrivka · On: Mykola Vechurko · Off: Faites Prévu Kaya Makosso
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Kudrivka · On: Reynaldihno Verley · Off: Raymond Owusu
91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Dynamo Kyiv · On: Oleksandr Tymchyk · Off: Oleksiy Sych
99′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Kudrivka · On: Kostyantyn Bychek · Off: Artur Dumanyuk
99′⚽ GOAL · 90+9' Dynamo Kyiv 2–1 Kudrivka
FTFULL TIME Dynamo Kyiv 3–1 Kudrivka
FTDynamo Kyiv 3–1 Kudrivka · Dynamo Kyiv win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dynamo Kyiv are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dynamo Kyiv 74%, draw 16%, Kudrivka 10%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Dynamo Kyiv v KudrivkaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Dynamo Kyiv win74%

Draw16%

Kudrivka win10%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueValeriy Lobanovsky Dynamo Stadium

Line-ups

Dynamo Kyiv

4-2-3-1

Kudrivka

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dynamo Kyiv

Kudrivka

5Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · the Ukrainian Premier League

Last match: 17 Oct · the Ukrainian Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Dynamo Kyiv	8	+3	16
15	Kudrivka	9	−11	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dynamo Kyiv

4-2-3-1

1 H. Bushchan

5 O. Sych

94 T. Kędziora

32 T. Mykhavko

44 V. Dubinchak

91 M. Mykhaylenko

6 V. Brazhko

7 A. Yarmolenko

10 M. Shaparenko

9 N. Voloshyn

11 M. Ponomarenko

Coach · M. Kędziorek

Substitutes

42 · K. Bah

40 · K. Bilovar

39 · E. Guerrero

22 · V. Kabaev

21 · J. Lonwijk

99 · P. Mounguengue

16 · S. Ogundana

43 · I. Olkhovyi

8 · O. Pikhalyonok

15 · V. Rubchynskyi

66 · A. Thiare

18 · O. Tymchyk

Kudrivka

4-3-3

37 A. Yashkov

22 B. Veklyak

17 M. Serdyuk

25 Mykola Oharkov

91 M. Melnychuk

7 I. Petryak

8 Y. Smyrnyi

19 A. Dumanyuk

14 K. Makosso

21 O. Belyaev

24 R. Owusu

Coach · Yevgen Zadorozhniy

Substitutes

9 · R. Verley

23 · O. Yushchenko

6 · M. Vechurko

71 · S. Sten

66 · K. Sigeev

10 · R. Plaksa

1 · K. Lavuta

73 · Mykhailo Kulyk

97 · Anton Demchenko

77 · K. Bychek

29 · victor adeoye

70 · D. Yesin

Our number · dynamo kyiv winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:19 · locked at kick-off

74% The market81%

Us74%

~~Market~~81%

We make Dynamo Kyiv a 74% chance to win. The market has them at 81%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dynamo Kyiv v Kudrivka~~2.69 – 0.89

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 16 v 5~~4 v 15

~~The market · Dynamo Kyiv win~~81% · ours 74%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dynamo Kyiv win The market, margin stripped

Published at 75%, 74% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 81% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dynamo Kyiv win	74%	81%	−7
Draw	16%	12%	+4
Kudrivka win	10%	7%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	69%	68%	+1
Both teams to score	55%	46%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	87%	84%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	48%	49%	−1
Dynamo Kyiv or draw	90%	93%	−3
Dynamo Kyiv clean sheet	41%	–	–
Kudrivka clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.0%

0123450 3.4 2.3 1 7.4 7.2 3.0 2 10.0 8.7 3.9 3 8.8 7.6 3.4 4 5.9 5.1 2.3 5 3.3 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Dynamo Kyiv down, Kudrivka across0–5 goals a side shown (93.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,189 Premier League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dynamo Kyiv at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Kudrivka away: 1.00 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.69 goals for Dynamo Kyiv, 0.89 for Kudrivka. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 10:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~DYN 3–2 KUD · KUD 1–2 DYN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

DYNAMO KYIV

LDWWWL0–3 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–3

KUDRIVKA

LLLLLW0–3 · 1–5 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shakhtar Donetsk	9	+15	24
2	Polessya	9	+12	22
3	FC Kharkiv	8	+10	18
4	Dynamo Kyiv	8	+3	16
5	Karpaty	9	+9	15
6	LNZ Cherkasy	9	+1	14
7	Zorya Luhansk	9	−1	14
8	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	9	−3	9
9	Veres Rivne	9	−5	9
10	Kolos Kovalivka	8	−3	8
11	Bukovyna	9	−5	8
12	Livyi Bereh	8	−2	7
13	Obolon'-Brovar	8	−8	7
14	Chornomorets	8	−6	5
15	Kudrivka	9	−11	5
16	Kryvbas KR	7	−6	5