Dynamo Kyiv v Karpaty prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Dynamo Kyiv 1–0 Karpaty DYNAMO KYIV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dynamo Kyiv win~~50%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.371

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.357

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dynamo Kyiv win at 50%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Dynamo Kyiv 50% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–24–25
5′Little has changed for our model: Dynamo Kyiv 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–24–25
35′We said Dynamo Kyiv at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–26–56
36′We said Dynamo Kyiv at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–26–57
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Dynamo Kyiv win: 50% at kick-off, 42% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Dynamo Kyiv win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Karpaty win 24%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Dynamo Kyiv win: 50% at kick-off, 18% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Karpaty win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Dynamo Kyiv win 18%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Dynamo Kyiv win: 50% at kick-off, 18% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Karpaty win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Dynamo Kyiv win 18%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Dynamo Kyiv win: 50% at kick-off, 18% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Karpaty win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Dynamo Kyiv win 18%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Dynamo Kyiv win: 50% at kick-off, 18% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Karpaty win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Dynamo Kyiv win 18%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Dynamo Kyiv win: 50% at kick-off, 18% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Karpaty win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Dynamo Kyiv win 18%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Dynamo Kyiv win: 50% at kick-off, 18% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Karpaty win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Dynamo Kyiv win 18%)
45′HALF-TIME Dynamo Kyiv 0–0 Karpaty
46′SECOND HALF Dynamo Kyiv 0–0 Karpaty
50′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Joseph Séry · Karpaty
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Marko Sapuga · Karpaty
63′🟥 RED CARD · 62' Nazariy Rusyn · Karpaty
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Dynamo Kyiv · On: Nazar Voloshyn · Off: Vladyslav Kabaev Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Dynamo Kyiv · On: Nazar Voloshyn · Off: Vladyslav Kabaev Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Dynamo Kyiv · On: Keasse Bah · Off: Andriy Yarmolenko Corrected
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Dynamo Kyiv 1–0 Karpaty
67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Dynamo Kyiv 1–0 Karpaty · Matviy Ponomarenko
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Karpaty · On: Ivan Calero · Off: Roman Vantukh Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Karpaty · On: Oleksandr Diedov · Off: Marko Sapuga Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Dynamo Kyiv · On: Mykola Mykhaylenko · Off: Justin Lonwijk Corrected
78′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Keasse Bah · Dynamo Kyiv
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Dynamo Kyiv · On: Oleksandr Pikhalyonok · Off: Valentyn Rubchynskyi Corrected
87′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Matviy Ponomarenko · Dynamo Kyiv
89′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Oleksandr Diedov · Karpaty
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Karpaty · On: Fellipe Vieira · Off: Denys Miroshnichenko Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Oleksandr Diedov · Karpaty
FTFULL TIME Dynamo Kyiv 1–0 Karpaty
FTDynamo Kyiv 1–0 Karpaty · Dynamo Kyiv win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Dynamo Kyiv win50%

Draw25%

Karpaty win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

VenueValeriy Lobanovsky Dynamo Stadium

RefereeDenys Shurman

Line-ups

Dynamo Kyiv

4-1-4-1

Karpaty

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Dynamo Kyiv

Karpaty

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Karpaty	7	+10	14
5	Dynamo Kyiv	6	+4	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Dynamo Kyiv

4-1-4-1

1 G. Bushchan

5 O. Sych

94 T. Kedziora

32 T. Mykhavko

44 V. Dubinchak

6 V. Brazhko

7 A. Yarmolenko

21 J. Lonwijk

15 V. Rubchynskyi

22 V. Kabaev

11 M. Ponomarenko

Coach · Igor Kostyuk

Substitutes

35 · R. Neshcheret

71 · V. Surkis

66 · A. Thiare

91 · M. Mykhaylenko

9 · N. Voloshyn

8 · O. Pikhalyonok

99 · P. Mounguengue

40 · K. Bilovar

42 · K. Bah

23 · N. Malysh

39 · E. Guerrero

47 · Gustavo Prado

Karpaty

4-3-3

80 R. Mysak

11 D. Miroshnichenko

4 V. Baboglo

47 Jean Pedroso

17 R. Vantukh

8 A. Chachua

20 M. Sapuga

10 Moha Moukhliss

70 X. Alkain

9 J. Sery

31 N. Rusyn

Coach · Fran Fernandez

Substitutes

36 · A. Zhylkin

99 · Y. Gereta

55 · T. Stetskov

73 · R. Lyakh

14 · I. Calero

18 · Eriki

58 · V. Antonyuk

7 · Fellipe Vieira

21 · B. Iglesias Lois

5 · A. Buleza

19 · Y. Karabin

28 · O. Dyedov

Our number · dynamo kyiv winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

50% The market51%

Us50%

~~Market~~51%

We make Dynamo Kyiv a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · dynamo kyiv win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dynamo Kyiv win	50%	51%	−1
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Karpaty win	25%	23%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	56%	55%	+1
Both teams to score	57%	56%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	77%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	34%	34%	0
Dynamo Kyiv or draw	75%	77%	−2
Dynamo Kyiv clean sheet	31%	–	–
Karpaty clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.2 5.8 3.7 1 8.9 11.5 6.3 2.5 2 8.2 9.4 5.5 2.2 3 4.8 5.5 3.2 4 2.2 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dynamo Kyiv down, Karpaty across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,177 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.4% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dynamo Kyiv at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Karpaty away: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Dynamo Kyiv, 1.17 for Karpaty. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 10:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~DYN 0–1 KAR · KAR 3–3 DYN · DYN 2–0 KAR · KAR 1–3 DYN

Form · last six in Premier League

DYNAMO KYIV

WWLDWW2–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 2–0

KARPATY

WWDLWD3–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shakhtar Donetsk	8	+14	21
2	Polessya	7	+10	18
3	FC Kharkiv	7	+9	15
4	Karpaty	7	+10	14
5	Dynamo Kyiv	6	+4	13
6	Veres Rivne	8	−3	9
7	Kolos Kovalivka	7	−2	8
8	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	8	−3	8
9	LNZ Cherkasy	7	−3	8
10	Zorya Luhansk	7	−4	8
11	Livyi Bereh	6	+1	7
12	Bukovyna	7	−2	7
13	Kryvbas KR	6	−3	5
14	Chornomorets	7	−5	5
15	Obolon'-Brovar	7	−10	4
16	Kudrivka	7	−13	2