Chornomorets v Karpaty prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ChornomoretsDrawKarpaty

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Karpaty 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Karpaty are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chornomorets 21%, draw 26%, Karpaty 53%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Chornomorets v KarpatyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Chornomorets win21%

Draw26%

Karpaty win53%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueChornomorets Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chornomorets

Karpaty

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Ukrainian Premier League

Last match: 18 Oct · the Ukrainian Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Karpaty	9	+9	15
14	Chornomorets	8	−6	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · karpaty winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

53% The market64%

Us53%

~~Market~~64%

We make Karpaty a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chornomorets v Karpaty~~0.89 – 1.60

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 15~~14 v 5

~~The market · Karpaty win~~64% · ours 53%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Karpaty win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chornomorets win	21%	14%	+7
Draw	26%	22%	+4
Karpaty win	53%	64%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	45%	54%	−9
Both teams to score	47%	50%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	71%	76%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	24%	33%	−9
Chornomorets or draw	47%	36%	+11
Chornomorets clean sheet	21%	–	–
Karpaty clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.6%

0123450 9.4 12.6 10.5 5.6 2.3 1 6.8 12.3 9.1 4.8 2.0 2 3.4 5.2 4.0 2.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chornomorets down, Karpaty across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,195 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.7% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chornomorets at home: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Karpaty away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.89 goals for Chornomorets, 1.60 for Karpaty. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~KAR 4–0 CHO · CHO 0–1 KAR · KAR 3–0 CHO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

CHORNOMORETS

WDLDLL1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

KARPATY

DLWDLD1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Polessya	10	+15	25
2	Shakhtar Donetsk	9	+15	24
3	FC Kharkiv	9	+11	21
4	Dynamo Kyiv	9	+5	19
5	Karpaty	9	+9	15
6	LNZ Cherkasy	10	+1	15
7	Zorya Luhansk	9	−1	14
8	Kolos Kovalivka	9	−1	11
9	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	10	−4	9
10	Veres Rivne	10	−7	9
11	Livyi Bereh	9	−2	8
12	Bukovyna	9	−5	8
13	Obolon'-Brovar	9	−11	7
14	Chornomorets	8	−6	5
15	Kudrivka	10	−13	5
16	Kryvbas KR	7	−6	5