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Chornomorets v FC Kharkiv

Chornomorets

1–2Full time

FC Kharkiv

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · Chornomorets Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:46

Chornomorets 1–2 FC Kharkiv FC KHARKIV WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Kharkiv win~~49%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.395

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.172

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Kharkiv win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC Kharkiv was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 22–28–50
1′KICK-OFF Chornomorets v FC Kharkiv
19′A red card for Chornomorets on 17′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 22–33–46
19′🟥 RED CARD · 18' Chornomorets
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Chornomorets 0–1 FC Kharkiv
26′24′ and it is 0–1: Carlos Paraco on the scoresheet for FC Kharkiv. 0–1 · 5–16–79
26′⚽ GOAL · 24' Chornomorets 0–1 FC Kharkiv · Carlos Paraco
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' FC Kharkiv win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
27′We published FC Kharkiv at 49%. Our model now makes it 79%. 0–1 · 5–16–79
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 5–16–79
33′We published FC Kharkiv at 49%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 4–16–80
45′HALF-TIME Chornomorets 0–1 FC Kharkiv
46′SECOND HALF Chornomorets 0–1 FC Kharkiv
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Ramik Gadzhiev · FC Kharkiv
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Chornomorets 0–2 FC Kharkiv · Carlos Paraco
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Chornomorets 0–2 FC Kharkiv · Baton Zabergja (assist Ivan Kalyuzhny)
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Chornomorets 1–2 FC Kharkiv · Baton Zabergja
62′⚽ GOAL · 60' Chornomorets 1–2 FC Kharkiv · Kiril·Popov (assist M. Jobe)
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' FC Kharkiv · On: Oleksandr Yatsyk · Off: Baton Zabergja
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Chornomorets · On: Vladyslav Gerych · Off: Danyil Alefirenko
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Chornomorets · On: Oleksiy Gusev · Off: Vladyslav Klymenko
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' FC Kharkiv · On: Sebastian Alejandro Castillo Perez · Off: Carlos Paraco
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' FC Kharkiv · On: Ermir Rashica · Off: Peter Itodo
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Chornomorets · On: Andriy Khoma · Off: M. Jobe
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Oleksandr Yatsyk · FC Kharkiv
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' FC Kharkiv · On: Denys Antyukh · Off: Ramik Gadzhiev
FTFULL TIME Chornomorets 1–2 FC Kharkiv
FTChornomorets 1–2 FC Kharkiv · FC Kharkiv win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Chornomorets win22%

Draw29%

FC Kharkiv win49%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 11:00

Venue · Chornomorets Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Chornomorets

4-2-3-1

12 C. Aniagboso

21 V. Klymenko

24 M. Jarju

74 M. Faryna

27 O. Pushkaryov

18 G. Robakidze

30 M. Jobe

7 D. Alefirenko

13 V. Faraseyenko

11 K. Popov

70 J. D. Yoka

Coach · Roman Grygorchuk

Substitutes

35 · M. Koval

16 · N. Bayda

4 · M. Kratov

8 · D. Klyots

9 · A. Khoma

10 · A. Avagimyan

23 · O. Gusev

77 · V. Gerych

60 · M. Melnychenko

20 · N. Stepovyi

52 · S. Yarmola

FC Kharkiv

4-4-2

1 G. Yermakov

27 I. Krupskyi

13 V. Salyuk

31 A. Shabanov

29 A. Smolyakov

14 R. Gadzhyev

5 I. Kalyuzhnyi

18 Y. Pavlyuk

7 B. Zabergja

98 P. Itodo

10 C. Paraco

Coach · Mladen Bartulovic

Substitutes

23 · Y. Protsenko

30 · D. Varakuta

8 · O. Yatsyk

9 · D. Antyukh

11 · S. Castillo

16 · J. N. Arevalo Chaparro

19 · E. Rashica

24 · O. Martynyuk

25 · I. Kogut

37 · V. Dubko

70 · I. Bagriy

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Chornomorets

4-2-3-1

12 C. Aniagboso

21 V. Klymenko

24 M. Jarju

74 M. Faryna

27 O. Pushkaryov

18 G. Robakidze

30 M. Jobe

7 D. Alefirenko

13 V. Faraseyenko

11 K. Popov

70 J. D. Yoka

Coach · Roman Grygorchuk

Substitutes

35 · M. Koval

16 · N. Bayda

4 · M. Kratov

8 · D. Klyots

9 · A. Khoma

10 · A. Avagimyan

23 · O. Gusev

77 · V. Gerych

60 · M. Melnychenko

20 · N. Stepovyi

52 · S. Yarmola

FC Kharkiv

4-4-2

1 G. Yermakov

27 I. Krupskyi

13 V. Salyuk

31 A. Shabanov

29 A. Smolyakov

14 R. Gadzhyev

5 I. Kalyuzhnyi

18 Y. Pavlyuk

7 B. Zabergja

98 P. Itodo

10 C. Paraco

Coach · Mladen Bartulovic

Substitutes

23 · Y. Protsenko

30 · D. Varakuta

8 · O. Yatsyk

9 · D. Antyukh

11 · S. Castillo

16 · J. N. Arevalo Chaparro

19 · E. Rashica

24 · O. Martynyuk

25 · I. Kogut

37 · V. Dubko

70 · I. Bagriy

Our number · fc kharkiv winPublished 10 Oct 11:13

49% The market66%

Us49%

~~Market~~66%

We make FC Kharkiv a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc kharkiv win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 64% to 67% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chornomorets win	22%	12%	+10
Draw	29%	21%	+8
FC Kharkiv win	49%	66%	−17
Over 2.5 goals	36%	50%	−14
Both teams to score	41%	44%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	64%	73%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	17%	29%	−12
Chornomorets or draw	51%	34%	+17
Chornomorets clean sheet	27%	–	–
FC Kharkiv clean sheet	45%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.9%

0123450 12.7 14.9 10.5 4.8 1 8.7 12.9 8.2 3.7 2 3.8 5.0 3.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chornomorets down, FC Kharkiv across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,175 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chornomorets at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). FC Kharkiv away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.80 goals for Chornomorets, 1.35 for FC Kharkiv. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 10:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CHO 3–0 FCK · FCK 2–1 CHO · CHO 1–1 FCK · FCK 0–0 CHO

Form · last six in Premier League

CHORNOMORETS

LLWDLD1–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–1

FC KHARKIV

WLLWWW1–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 5–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shakhtar Donetsk	8	+14	21
2	Polessya	7	+10	18
3	Karpaty	7	+10	14
4	Dynamo Kyiv	6	+4	13
5	FC Kharkiv	6	+8	12
6	Veres Rivne	8	−3	9
7	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	7	−1	8
8	LNZ Cherkasy	7	−3	8
9	Zorya Luhansk	7	−4	8
10	Livyi Bereh	6	+1	7
11	Bukovyna	7	−2	7
12	Kryvbas KR	6	−3	5
13	Kolos Kovalivka	6	−4	5
14	Chornomorets	6	−4	5
15	Obolon'-Brovar	7	−10	4
16	Kudrivka	7	−13	2