Bukovyna v Polessya prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Bukovyna 2–2 Polessya POLESSYA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Polessya win~~51%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.808

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.950

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 40 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Polessya win at 51%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Polessya 51% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 20–28–52
2′KICK-OFF Bukovyna v Polessya
9′Little has changed for our model: Polessya 51% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 20–30–50
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Bukovyna 0–1 Polessya
19′Maksym Bragaru scores for Polessya on 18′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 5–15–80
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Polessya win: 51% at kick-off, 80% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Polessya win: 51% at kick-off, 50% now
20′Maksym Bragaru scores for Polessya on 18′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 5–15–80
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Polessya win: 51% at kick-off, 50% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Polessya win: 51% at kick-off, 80% now
22′We said Polessya at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 0–1 · 5–15–81
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Polessya win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
23′We said Polessya at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 0–1 · 5–15–81
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Polessya win: 51% at kick-off, 80% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Polessya win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
27′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Lindon Emerllahu · Polessya
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 4–15–81
31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Vladyslav Pryimak · Bukovyna
32′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 4–15–81
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Giorgi Maisuradze · Polessya
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Vitaliy Dakhnovskyi · Bukovyna
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Polessya win: 51% at kick-off, 82% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Polessya win: 51% at kick-off, 82% now
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Bukovyna 0–1 Polessya · Vitaliy Dakhnovskyi
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Bukovyna 1–1 Polessya · Vitaliy Dakhnovskyi
45′HALF-TIME Bukovyna 1–1 Polessya
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Polessya · On: Vladyslav Veleten · Off: Oleg Fedor Corrected
45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Ruslan Babenko · Polessya
55′SECOND HALF Bukovyna 1–1 Polessya
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Bukovyna 2–1 Polessya · Vitaliy Dakhnovskyi
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Bukovyna 2–1 Polessya · Andriy Busko
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Oleh·Kozhushko · Bukovyna
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Vitaliy Grusha · Bukovyna
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Bukovyna · On: Renat Dadaşov · Off: Oleh·Kozhushko Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Bukovyna · On: Danylo Kravchuk · Off: Maksym Zaderaka Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Polessya · On: Igor Krasnopir · Off: Oleksandr Nazarenko Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Polessya · On: Volodymyr Shepelev · Off: Lindon Emerllahu Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bukovyna · On: Mor Talla Gaye · Off: Vitaliy Dakhnovskyi Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bukovyna · On: Vyacheslav Tankovskyi · Off: Vitaliy Grusha Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Polessya · On: Borys Krushynskyi · Off: Mykyta Kravchenko Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Bukovyna · On: E. Odinaka · Off: Andriy Busko Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Polessya · On: Andrusw Araujo · Off: Ruslan Babenko Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Vyacheslav Tankovskyi · Bukovyna
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Bukovyna 2–2 Polessya · Andriy Busko
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Bukovyna 2–2 Polessya · Vladyslav Veleten
90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' D. Karas · Bukovyna
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Herman Penkov · Bukovyna
FTFULL TIME Bukovyna 2–2 Polessya
FTBukovyna 2–2 Polessya · Polessya win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Bukovyna win20%

Draw29%

Polessya win51%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

VenueBukovyna Stadium

RefereeOleksiy Derevinskiy

Line-ups

Bukovyna

4-2-3-1

Polessya

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Bukovyna

Polessya

22Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Polessya	7	+10	18
12	Bukovyna	7	−2	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Bukovyna

4-2-3-1

94 G. Penkov

24 A. Busko

5 V. Pryimak

2 D. Karas

95 P. Stasyuk

44 V. Vitenchuk

25 V. Grusha

97 O. Ilyin

20 M. Zaderaka

11 V. Dakhnovskyi

7 O. Kozhushko

Coach · Sergiy Shyshchenko

Substitutes

30 · D. Kanevtsev

3 · M. Bezuglyy

4 · T. Sakiv

6 · V. Tankovskiy

9 · R. Dadashov

10 · B. Boychuk

12 · Y. Pidlepenets

17 · F. Babak

18 · E. Odinaka

21 · D. Kravchuk

70 · M. Talla

77 · M. Klepac

Polessya

4-2-3-1

1 O. Kudryk

31 G. Maisuradze

44 S. Chobotenko

5 E. Sarapiy

4 M. Kravchenko

14 L. Emerllahu

8 R. Babenko

7 O. Nazarenko

27 O. Fedor

45 M. Bragaru

89 M. Gayduchyk

Coach · Serhii Kravchenko

Substitutes

77 · N. Makarenko

10 · V. Veleten

15 · B. Mykhaylichenko

16 · I. Krasniqi

18 · O. Andriyevski

19 · V. Shepelev

22 · A. Araujo

25 · O. Ivanov

55 · B. Krushynskyi

94 · D. Gryshkevych

95 · I. Krasnopir

99 · M. Rasko

Our number · polessya winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

51% The market57%

Us51%

~~Market~~57%

We make Polessya a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · polessya win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 54% to 57% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bukovyna win	20%	19%	+1
Draw	29%	24%	+5
Polessya win	51%	57%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	36%	55%	−19
Both teams to score	39%	54%	−14
Over 1.5 goals	63%	77%	−13
Over 3.5 goals	17%	34%	−17
Bukovyna or draw	49%	43%	+6
Bukovyna clean sheet	26%	–	–
Polessya clean sheet	48%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.6%

0123450 12.9 15.6 11.2 5.3 1 8.2 12.5 8.1 3.8 2 3.4 4.5 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bukovyna down, Polessya across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,177 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.4% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Bukovyna at home: 1.00 scored, 0.25 conceded a game (last 4). Polessya away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.75 goals for Bukovyna, 1.40 for Polessya. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 15:44. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Premier League

BUKOVYNA

DLWDDL0–0 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–2

POLESSYA

WLWWWW3–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 5–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shakhtar Donetsk	8	+14	21
2	Polessya	7	+10	18
3	FC Kharkiv	7	+9	15
4	Karpaty	7	+10	14
5	Dynamo Kyiv	6	+4	13
6	Veres Rivne	8	−3	9
7	Kolos Kovalivka	7	−2	8
8	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	8	−3	8
9	LNZ Cherkasy	7	−3	8
10	Zorya Luhansk	7	−4	8
11	Livyi Bereh	6	+1	7
12	Bukovyna	7	−2	7
13	Kryvbas KR	6	−3	5
14	Chornomorets	7	−5	5
15	Obolon'-Brovar	7	−10	4
16	Kudrivka	7	−13	2