Yarud Mariupol' v Inhulets prediction · Persha Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Yarud Mariupol' 4–1 Inhulets YARUD MARIUPOL' WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Yarud Mariupol' win~~37%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.596

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.390

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Yarud Mariupol' just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Yarud Mariupol' 37%, draw 29%, Inhulets 34%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Yarud Mariupol' v InhuletsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Yarud Mariupol' win37%

Draw29%

Inhulets win34%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueKolos Stadium

Line-ups

Yarud Mariupol'

Inhulets

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Yarud Mariupol'

Inhulets

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Persha Liga

Last match: 10 Oct · Persha Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Yarud Mariupol'	11	+2	18
11	Inhulets	10	−2	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Yarud Mariupol'

Formation not confirmed

1 V. Zhupanskyi

33 V. Sydorenko

20 O. Nikolyshyn

15 O. Chornomorets

2 R. Gagun

8 A. Kukharuk

10 P. Orikhovskyi

17 P. Maletsky

5 O. Khakhlyov

96 O. Synytsya

29 A. Remenyak

Coach · Bogdan Blavatskyy

Substitutes

55 · O. Mozil

12 · S. Oryshchak

21 · K. Tsyurpalevych-Semochko

97 · O. Gerega

3 · D. Sydorenko

7 · R. Kovalyuk

6 · Y. Gunichev

14 · N. Grytsak

9 · S. Kyslenko

22 · M. Podolyak

Inhulets

Formation not confirmed

24 O. Slutskyi

3 M. Dzyubin

5 Y. Dankovskyi

4 V. Dubiley

22 D. Yanyuk

8 A. Benedyuk

21 O. Manastyrnyi

30 D. Tuzenko

17 T. Khussin

10 S. Ursolov

52 O. Zhadan

Coach · Vasyl Kobin

Substitutes

26 · D. Karlyuk

35 · D. Banyk

9 · Y. Knyazev

6 · O. Komar

11 · Y. Profatylo

25 · V. Rozhko

91 · Y. Ryazantsev

69 · Y. Yanovich

Our number · yarud mariupol' winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

37% The market49%

Us37%

~~Market~~49%

We make Yarud Mariupol' a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Yarud Mariupol' v Inhulets~~1.18 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 14~~6 v 11

~~The market · Yarud Mariupol' win~~49% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Yarud Mariupol' win The market, margin stripped

Published at 36%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yarud Mariupol' win	37%	49%	−12
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Inhulets win	34%	23%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	40%	44%	−4
Both teams to score	46%	48%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	66%	68%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	20%	24%	−4
Yarud Mariupol' or draw	66%	77%	−11
Yarud Mariupol' clean sheet	34%	–	–
Inhulets clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 11.1 10.9 6.3 2.4 1 11.5 13.4 7.1 2.7 2 7.0 7.6 4.2 3 2.8 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yarud Mariupol' down, Inhulets across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,148 Persha Liga matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 87 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Yarud Mariupol' at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Inhulets away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Yarud Mariupol', 1.11 for Inhulets. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~YAR 1–1 INH · INH 2–0 YAR · INH 0–1 YAR · YAR 1–1 INH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 29 Aug

YARUD MARIUPOL'

DWWDDW1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1

INHULETS

WDWWLL2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	11	+6	21
2	Kulykiv	11	+11	20
3	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	11	+4	20
4	Oleksandria	11	+6	19
5	SK Poltava	11	+8	18
6	Yarud Mariupol'	11	+2	18
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	11	+2	16
8	Prykarpattia	11	+2	15
9	Metal Kharkiv	11	0	15
10	Nyva Ternopil	11	+2	14
11	Inhulets	10	−2	14
12	Kolos Kovalivka II	11	−8	12
13	Chernihiv	10	−3	10
14	UCSA	11	−4	10
15	Probiy Horodenka	11	−18	8
16	Polissya II	11	−8	7