Viktoriya Mykolaivka v SK Poltava prediction · Persha Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Viktoriya MykolaivkaDrawSK Poltava

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · SK Poltava 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with SK Poltava just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Viktoriya Mykolaivka 35%, draw 28%, SK Poltava 36%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Viktoriya Mykolaivka v SK PoltavaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Viktoriya Mykolaivka win35%

Draw28%

SK Poltava win36%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueYuvileiny Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Viktoriya Mykolaivka

SK Poltava

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Persha Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sk poltava winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · updated 25 Oct 04:23 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make SK Poltava a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Viktoriya Mykolaivka v SK Poltava~~1.22 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 20 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 25 v 24~~1 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SK Poltava win

Published at 25%, 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Viktoriya Mykolaivka win	35%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
SK Poltava win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Viktoriya Mykolaivka or draw	64%	–	–
Viktoriya Mykolaivka clean sheet	30%	–	–
SK Poltava clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.7 10.0 6.5 2.7 1 9.9 13.2 7.7 3.2 2 6.4 7.6 4.6 3 2.7 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Viktoriya Mykolaivka down, SK Poltava across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,160 Persha Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.5% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Viktoriya Mykolaivka at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). SK Poltava away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Viktoriya Mykolaivka, 1.23 for SK Poltava. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~VIK 1–2 SKP · SKP 1–0 VIK · VIK 0–0 SKP · SKP 2–2 VIK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 20 Sept

VIKTORIYA MYKOLAIVKA

LDWDWD1–3 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1

SK POLTAVA

WLWLWW3–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 2–3 · 4–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	13	+7	25
2	SK Poltava	13	+13	24
3	Yarud Mariupol'	13	+7	24
4	Oleksandria	13	+8	23
5	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	12	+5	23
6	Kulykiv	12	+11	21
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	12	+2	17
8	Prykarpattia	13	−2	16
9	Nyva Ternopil	12	+2	15
10	Metal Kharkiv	13	−3	15
11	Inhulets	11	−5	14
12	Kolos Kovalivka II	12	−8	13
13	UCSA	12	−4	11
14	Chernihiv	11	−4	10
15	Probiy Horodenka	13	−20	9
16	Polissya II	13	−9	8