Viktoriya Mykolaivka v Chernihiv prediction · Persha Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 11:32

Viktoriya Mykolaivka 2–1 Chernihiv VIKTORIYA MYKOLAIVKA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Viktoriya Mykolaivka win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.369

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Viktoriya Mykolaivka win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Viktoriya Mykolaivka was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–27–22
1′KICK-OFF Viktoriya Mykolaivka v Chernihiv
17′A goal for Viktoriya Mykolaivka on 16′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–15–7
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Viktoriya Mykolaivka 1–0 Chernihiv
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Viktoriya Mykolaivka win: 50% at kick-off, 78% now
18′We published Viktoriya Mykolaivka at 50%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–16–6
19′Chernihiv score on 19′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 47–31–22
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Viktoriya Mykolaivka 1–1 Chernihiv
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Viktoriya Mykolaivka win: 50% at kick-off, 47% now
21′A red card for Chernihiv on 20′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 46–32–22
21′🟥 RED CARD · 20' Chernihiv
26′Viktoriya Mykolaivka find the net on 26′. 2–1. 2–1 · 78–16–6
26′SUBSTITUTION · 23' Chernihiv · On: D. Gerasymenko · Off: V. Koydan
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Viktoriya Mykolaivka 2–1 Chernihiv
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Viktoriya Mykolaivka win: 50% at kick-off, 78% now
28′GOAL DISALLOWED · 28' Viktoriya Mykolaivka
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Viktoriya Mykolaivka win: 50% at kick-off, 44% now
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Viktoriya Mykolaivka
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Viktoriya Mykolaivka win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
45′We said Viktoriya Mykolaivka at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 38–42–20
45′HALF-TIME Viktoriya Mykolaivka 1–1 Chernihiv
46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Chernihiv
46′SECOND HALF Viktoriya Mykolaivka 1–1 Chernihiv
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Viktoriya Mykolaivka win 38%)
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Viktoriya Mykolaivka
54′We said Viktoriya Mykolaivka at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–48–18
61′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–1 · 30–53–16
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Viktoriya Mykolaivka win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
63′We said Viktoriya Mykolaivka at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–55–16
64′Viktoriya Mykolaivka find the net on 64′. 2–1. 2–1 · 85–14–2
64′We published Viktoriya Mykolaivka at 50%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Viktoriya Mykolaivka 2–1 Chernihiv
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Viktoriya Mykolaivka win: 50% at kick-off, 85% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Viktoriya Mykolaivka win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 14%)
65′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 85–13–2
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Viktoriya Mykolaivka · On: D. Hryshchenko · Off: R. Dedukh
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Viktoriya Mykolaivka · On: Y. Dobrokhotov · Off: S. Sharay
70′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Viktoriya Mykolaivka · On: A. Shpyryonok · Off: A. Lyegostayev
70′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Viktoriya Mykolaivka · On: D. Kirichenko · Off: M. Kharchenko
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Viktoriya Mykolaivka · On: V. Savytskyi · Off: O. Chernov
75′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Chernihiv · On: A. Bybik · Off: D. Plakhtyr
75′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Chernihiv · On: S. Galoyan · Off: D. Bezgubchenko
76′We published Viktoriya Mykolaivka at 50%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Viktoriya Mykolaivka win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Chernihiv
84′We published Viktoriya Mykolaivka at 50%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
85′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Chernihiv · On: D. Bezborodko · Off: Y. Shalfeev
FTFULL TIME Viktoriya Mykolaivka 2–1 Chernihiv
FTViktoriya Mykolaivka 2–1 Chernihiv · Viktoriya Mykolaivka win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Viktoriya Mykolaivka are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Viktoriya Mykolaivka 50%, draw 27%, Chernihiv 22%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Viktoriya Mykolaivka v ChernihivBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Viktoriya Mykolaivka win50%

Draw27%

Chernihiv win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueYuvileiny Stadium

Line-ups

Viktoriya Mykolaivka

Chernihiv

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Viktoriya Mykolaivka

Chernihiv

8Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · Persha Liga

Last match: 11 Oct · Persha Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Viktoriya Mykolaivka

Formation not confirmed

31 V. Kucheruk

28 D. Ryabyi

4 D. Melnyk

45 I. Ilchuk

33 D. Ulyanov

6 V. Khamelyuk

18 R. Dedukh

25 S. Sharay

9 O. Chernov

77 M. Kharchenko

70 A. Lyegostayev

Coach · Volodymyr Romanenko

Substitutes

32 · O. Lytvynenko

29 · A. Ryabyi

5 · O. Vasyliev

27 · D. Dolinskyi

8 · Y. Dobrokhotov

19 · V. Savytskyi

15 · D. Kirichenko

22 · A. Shpyryonok

7 · D. Hryshchenko

11 · O. Lebedenko

1 · N. Yurchenko

Chernihiv

Formation not confirmed

35 M. Tatarenko

12 Y. Kartushov

20 D. Fateev

55 A. Romanchenko

33 A. Porokhnya

44 D. Plakhtyr

6 Y. Shalfeev

10 V. Koydan

87 V. Rogozynskyi

15 D. Bezgubchenko

11 A. Novikov

Coach · Vasyl Baranov

Substitutes

99 · D. Gerasymenko

24 · D. Didok

26 · D. Azizov

23 · O. Zenchenko

7 · D. Myronenko

80 · N. Terekhovets

8 · A. Bybik

13 · S. Galoyan

21 · D. Bezborodko

Our number · viktoriya mykolaivka winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Viktoriya Mykolaivka a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Viktoriya Mykolaivka v Chernihiv~~1.48 – 0.89

~~Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 21 v 10~~1 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Viktoriya Mykolaivka win

Published at 52%, 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Viktoriya Mykolaivka win	50%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Chernihiv win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Viktoriya Mykolaivka or draw	78%	–	–
Viktoriya Mykolaivka clean sheet	42%	–	–
Chernihiv clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 10.2 8.0 3.7 1 13.4 12.4 5.3 2 10.2 8.8 3.9 3 5.1 4.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Viktoriya Mykolaivka down, Chernihiv across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,148 Persha Liga matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 87 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Viktoriya Mykolaivka at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Chernihiv away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Viktoriya Mykolaivka, 0.89 for Chernihiv. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~VIK 3–0 CHE · CHE 1–2 VIK · CHE 0–1 VIK · CHE 0–3 VIK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 29 Aug

VIKTORIYA MYKOLAIVKA

DLLDWD1–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–2

CHERNIHIV

LWLLLW0–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	11	+6	21
2	Kulykiv	11	+11	20
3	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	11	+4	20
4	Oleksandria	11	+6	19
5	SK Poltava	11	+8	18
6	Yarud Mariupol'	11	+2	18
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	11	+2	16
8	Prykarpattia	11	+2	15
9	Metal Kharkiv	11	0	15
10	Nyva Ternopil	11	+2	14
11	Inhulets	10	−2	14
12	Kolos Kovalivka II	11	−8	12
13	Chernihiv	10	−3	10
14	UCSA	11	−4	10
15	Probiy Horodenka	11	−18	8
16	Polissya II	11	−8	7