UCSA v Yarud Mariupol' prediction · Persha Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

UCSA 1–2 Yarud Mariupol' UCSA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said UCSA win~~38%

~~The market said~~20%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.648

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.314

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said UCSA win at 38%.
1′KICK-OFF UCSA v Yarud Mariupol'
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' UCSA 0–1 Yarud Mariupol'
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' UCSA 1–1 Yarud Mariupol'
45′HALF-TIME UCSA 1–0 Yarud Mariupol'
46′SECOND HALF UCSA 1–0 Yarud Mariupol'
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' UCSA 1–1 Yarud Mariupol'
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' UCSA 1–2 Yarud Mariupol'
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' UCSA
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Yarud Mariupol'
80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' UCSA · On: V. Wojciechowski · Off: P. Castro
80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' UCSA · On: G. Goulart · Off: D. Irodovskyi
FTFULL TIME UCSA 1–2 Yarud Mariupol'
FTUCSA 1–2 Yarud Mariupol' · UCSA win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

UCSA win38%

Draw27%

Yarud Mariupol' win35%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 10:00

Line-ups

UCSA

Yarud Mariupol'

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

UCSA

Yarud Mariupol'

7Days since last match6

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Yarud Mariupol'	10	+1	15
13	UCSA	10	−3	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

UCSA

Formation not confirmed

12 A. Kovalyov

6 R. Yuvkhymets

35 Hiago Cena

45 D. Sabiyev

15 O. Osman

73 P. Castro

10 Matheusinho

17 O. Sklyar

49 Vitinho

70 D. Irodovskyi

22 Y. Rogach

Coach · Ribeiro Anderson

Substitutes

31 · V. Yushchyshyn

42 · D. Makhnev

8 · A. Kireev

11 · A. Emere

7 · M. Sytnykov

20 · M. Andrushchenko

87 · V. Wojciechowski

19 · G. Goulart

71 · Ruan Santos

28 · O. Zhdanovych

Yarud Mariupol'

Formation not confirmed

1 V. Zhupanskyi

33 V. Sydorenko

97 O. Gerega

20 O. Nikolyshyn

15 O. Chornomorets

11 V. Kucherov

8 A. Kukharuk

10 P. Orikhovskyi

96 O. Synytsya

6 Y. Gunichev

9 S. Kyslenko

Coach · Bogdan Blavatskyy

Substitutes

12 · S. Oryshchak

21 · K. Tsyurpalevych-Semochko

3 · D. Sydorenko

7 · R. Kovalyuk

5 · O. Khakhlyov

17 · P. Maletsky

14 · N. Grytsak

29 · A. Remenyak

22 · M. Podolyak

Our number · ucsa winPublished 11 Oct 10:06

38% The market20%

Us38%

~~Market~~20%

We make UCSA a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 20%. We are 18 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ucsa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 30% to 20% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UCSA win	38%	20%	+18
Draw	27%	26%	+2
Yarud Mariupol' win	35%	54%	−20
Over 2.5 goals	47%	46%	+1
Both teams to score	52%	48%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	73%	71%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	26%	0
UCSA or draw	65%	46%	+20
UCSA clean sheet	29%	–	–
Yarud Mariupol' clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.5 9.1 6.0 2.5 1 9.6 12.8 7.6 3.2 2 6.7 8.1 5.0 2.1 3 3.0 3.6 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UCSA down, Yarud Mariupol' across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,143 Persha Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Persha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UCSA at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Yarud Mariupol' away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for UCSA, 1.25 for Yarud Mariupol'. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~YAR 1–1 UCS · UCS 0–0 YAR · UCS 3–0 YAR · YAR 2–3 UCS

Form · last six in Persha Liga

UCSA

LLWLDL1–2 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–3

YARUD MARIUPOL'

WDWWDD3–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	11	+6	21
2	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	11	+4	20
3	Oleksandria	10	+8	19
4	SK Poltava	11	+8	18
5	Kulykiv	10	+9	17
6	Prykarpattia	10	+3	15
7	Yarud Mariupol'	10	+1	15
8	Metal Kharkiv	11	0	15
9	Inhulets	10	−2	14
10	Lokomotiv Kyiv	10	0	13
11	Kolos Kovalivka II	10	−6	12
12	Nyva Ternopil	10	0	11
13	UCSA	10	−3	10
14	Probiy Horodenka	11	−18	8
15	Chernihiv	9	−4	7
16	Polissya II	10	−6	7