UCSA v Lokomotiv Kyiv prediction · Persha Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

UCSADrawLokomotiv Kyiv

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Lokomotiv Kyiv 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Lokomotiv Kyiv just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: UCSA 36%, draw 27%, Lokomotiv Kyiv 37%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on UCSA v Lokomotiv KyivBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

UCSA win36%

Draw27%

Lokomotiv Kyiv win37%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

UCSA

Lokomotiv Kyiv

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Persha Liga

Last match: 18 Oct · Persha Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	12	+2	17
13	UCSA	12	−4	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lokomotiv kyiv winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

37% The market37%

Us37%

~~Market~~37%

We make Lokomotiv Kyiv a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · UCSA v Lokomotiv Kyiv~~1.30 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 17~~13 v 7

~~The market · Lokomotiv Kyiv win~~37% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lokomotiv Kyiv win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UCSA win	36%	34%	+2
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Lokomotiv Kyiv win	37%	37%	0
Over 2.5 goals	49%	45%	+4
Both teams to score	53%	52%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	70%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	27%	25%	+2
UCSA or draw	63%	63%	0
UCSA clean sheet	27%	–	–
Lokomotiv Kyiv clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.2 9.0 6.4 2.9 1 8.8 12.7 8.0 3.6 2 6.1 7.8 5.2 2.3 3 2.7 3.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UCSA down, Lokomotiv Kyiv across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,160 Persha Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.5% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UCSA at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Lokomotiv Kyiv away: 1.40 scored, 0.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for UCSA, 1.34 for Lokomotiv Kyiv. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~UCS 1–1 LOK · LOK 0–0 UCS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 11 Sept

UCSA

WLDLLD3–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 0–0

LOKOMOTIV KYIV

WWWDWD2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–3 · 3–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	13	+7	25
2	SK Poltava	13	+13	24
3	Yarud Mariupol'	13	+7	24
4	Oleksandria	13	+8	23
5	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	12	+5	23
6	Kulykiv	12	+11	21
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	12	+2	17
8	Prykarpattia	13	−2	16
9	Nyva Ternopil	12	+2	15
10	Metal Kharkiv	13	−3	15
11	Inhulets	11	−5	14
12	Kolos Kovalivka II	12	−8	13
13	UCSA	12	−4	11
14	Chernihiv	11	−4	10
15	Probiy Horodenka	13	−20	9
16	Polissya II	13	−9	8