SK Poltava v Prykarpattia prediction · Persha Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

SK Poltava 4–0 Prykarpattia SK POLTAVA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SK Poltava win~~48%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.401

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.445

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SK Poltava are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SK Poltava 48%, draw 27%, Prykarpattia 24%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on SK Poltava v PrykarpattiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

SK Poltava win48%

Draw27%

Prykarpattia win24%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueLokomotyv Stadium

Line-ups

SK Poltava

Prykarpattia

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SK Poltava

Prykarpattia

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Persha Liga

Last match: 11 Oct · Persha Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	SK Poltava	11	+8	18
8	Prykarpattia	11	+2	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

SK Poltava

Formation not confirmed

96 D. Yermolov

2 M. Kononov

5 V. Pidlepych

22 D. Prikhna

95 I. Kotsyumaka

97 S. Seytkhalilov

21 Y. Tlumak

8 V. Odaryuk

28 D. Blagodarnyi

10 V. Sad

11 D. Kasimov

Coach · Igor Tymchenko

Substitutes

1 · M. Minchev

19 · M. Buzhyn

27 · D. Serbinov

7 · D. Galenkov

20 · N. Krokhmal

91 · A. Pustovit

25 · T. Babych

88 · O. Vivdych

15 · V. Danylenko

9 · D. Shcherbak

12 · O. Surdov

Prykarpattia

Formation not confirmed

24 I. Pitsan

23 S. Demkiv

30 S. Shvets

3 V. Frantsuz

27 V. Chushenko

44 V. Runich

10 M. Solovyov

99 Y. Bespalko

88 M. Protsiv

14 V. Tsyutsyura

7 Y. Radulsky

Coach · –

Substitutes

26 · A. Bobynets

19 · V. Kozenko

34 · V. Genyk

9 · M. Graban

41 · M. Marusych

95 · R. Rusyn

8 · Y. Demchenko

17 · M. Stadnik

77 · O. Kos

90 · R. Barchuk

Our number · sk poltava winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market46%

Us48%

~~Market~~46%

We make SK Poltava a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SK Poltava v Prykarpattia~~1.46 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 15~~5 v 8

~~The market · SK Poltava win~~46% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SK Poltava win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SK Poltava win	48%	46%	+2
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Prykarpattia win	24%	26%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	43%	44%	−1
Both teams to score	47%	49%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	69%	68%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	24%	−1
SK Poltava or draw	76%	74%	+2
SK Poltava clean sheet	39%	–	–
Prykarpattia clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.7%

0123450 9.8 8.2 4.1 1 12.7 12.5 5.8 2 9.4 8.7 4.2 3 4.7 4.3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SK Poltava down, Prykarpattia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,148 Persha Liga matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 87 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SK Poltava at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Prykarpattia away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for SK Poltava, 0.95 for Prykarpattia. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SKP 3–0 PRY · PRY 3–1 SKP · PRY 0–1 SKP · SKP 0–1 PRY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 4 Sept

SK POLTAVA

DLWLWL0–0 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 2–3

PRYKARPATTIA

DWWLDL0–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	11	+6	21
2	Kulykiv	11	+11	20
3	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	11	+4	20
4	Oleksandria	11	+6	19
5	SK Poltava	11	+8	18
6	Yarud Mariupol'	11	+2	18
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	11	+2	16
8	Prykarpattia	11	+2	15
9	Metal Kharkiv	11	0	15
10	Nyva Ternopil	11	+2	14
11	Inhulets	10	−2	14
12	Kolos Kovalivka II	11	−8	12
13	Chernihiv	10	−3	10
14	UCSA	11	−4	10
15	Probiy Horodenka	11	−18	8
16	Polissya II	11	−8	7