Prykarpattia v Viktoriya Mykolaivka prediction · Persha Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

Prykarpattia 1–1 Viktoriya Mykolaivka VIKTORIYA MYKOLAIVKA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Viktoriya Mykolaivka win~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.713

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Viktoriya Mykolaivka win at 35%.
1′Much as we predicted: Viktoriya Mykolaivka was 35% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 34–31–35
1′KICK-OFF Prykarpattia v Viktoriya Mykolaivka
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Viktoriya Mykolaivka win 34%)
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Viktoriya Mykolaivka
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Prykarpattia
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Viktoriya Mykolaivka
45′HALF-TIME Prykarpattia 0–0 Viktoriya Mykolaivka
46′SECOND HALF Prykarpattia 0–0 Viktoriya Mykolaivka
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Viktoriya Mykolaivka
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Viktoriya Mykolaivka win: 35% at kick-off, 25% now
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Prykarpattia
58′We said Viktoriya Mykolaivka at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 22–54–23
58′🟨 YELLOW · 55' S. Shvets · Prykarpattia
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Viktoriya Mykolaivka · On: D. Hryshchenko · Off: A. Shpyryonok
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Viktoriya Mykolaivka · On: V. Savytskyi · Off: O. Chernov
66′We said Viktoriya Mykolaivka at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–62–19
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Prykarpattia · On: Y. Demchenko · Off: M. Marusych
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Prykarpattia · On: M. Stadnik · Off: V. Runich
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Viktoriya Mykolaivka win: 35% at kick-off, 15% now
75′We said Viktoriya Mykolaivka at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 13–73–14
78′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Prykarpattia · On: O. Kos · Off: M. Solovyov
81′We said Viktoriya Mykolaivka at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–82–9
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Viktoriya Mykolaivka · On: O. Vasyliev · Off: R. Dedukh
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Viktoriya Mykolaivka · On: A. Ryabyi · Off: M. Kharchenko
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Viktoriya Mykolaivka win: 35% at kick-off, 5% now
88′We said Viktoriya Mykolaivka at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–91–4
88′A goal for Prykarpattia on 88′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 96–4–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Prykarpattia 1–0 Viktoriya Mykolaivka
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Prykarpattia win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 91%)
95′Viktoriya Mykolaivka score on 90′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 1–98–1
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Prykarpattia 1–1 Viktoriya Mykolaivka
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Draw is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Prykarpattia win 99%)
96′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–1 · 1–98–1
FTFULL TIME Prykarpattia 1–1 Viktoriya Mykolaivka
FTPrykarpattia 1–1 Viktoriya Mykolaivka · Viktoriya Mykolaivka win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Viktoriya Mykolaivka just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Prykarpattia 34%, draw 31%, Viktoriya Mykolaivka 35%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Prykarpattia v Viktoriya MykolaivkaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Prykarpattia win34%

Draw31%

Viktoriya Mykolaivka win35%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueMCS Rukh

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Prykarpattia

Viktoriya Mykolaivka

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Persha Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	12	+7	24
9	Prykarpattia	12	−2	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · viktoriya mykolaivka winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

35% The market–

Us35%

We make Viktoriya Mykolaivka a 35% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Prykarpattia v Viktoriya Mykolaivka~~1.04 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 24~~9 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Prykarpattia win	34%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Viktoriya Mykolaivka win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Prykarpattia or draw	65%	–	–
Prykarpattia clean sheet	35%	–	–
Viktoriya Mykolaivka clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 13.1 12.3 6.9 2.6 1 11.9 13.8 7.0 2.6 2 6.6 6.8 3.6 3 2.3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Prykarpattia down, Viktoriya Mykolaivka across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,157 Persha Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Prykarpattia at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Viktoriya Mykolaivka away: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Prykarpattia, 1.07 for Viktoriya Mykolaivka. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~PRY 1–1 VIK · VIK 0–2 PRY · PRY 0–1 VIK · VIK 1–1 PRY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 13 Sept

PRYKARPATTIA

WWLDLL2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–4

VIKTORIYA MYKOLAIVKA

LLDWDW0–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yarud Mariupol'	13	+7	24
2	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	12	+7	24
3	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	12	+5	23
4	SK Poltava	12	+12	21
5	Kulykiv	12	+11	21
6	Oleksandria	12	+6	20
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	12	+2	17
8	Nyva Ternopil	12	+2	15
9	Prykarpattia	12	−2	15
10	Metal Kharkiv	13	−3	15
11	Inhulets	11	−5	14
12	Kolos Kovalivka II	12	−8	13
13	UCSA	12	−4	11
14	Chernihiv	11	−4	10
15	Probiy Horodenka	12	−18	9
16	Polissya II	12	−8	8