Prykarpattia v Chernihiv prediction · Persha Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:09

Prykarpattia 0–1 Chernihiv PRYKARPATTIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Prykarpattia win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.890

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Prykarpattia win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Prykarpattia 48% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–27–24
1′KICK-OFF Prykarpattia v Chernihiv
14′Little has changed for our model: Prykarpattia 48% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–30–24
45′HALF-TIME Prykarpattia 0–0 Chernihiv
45′SUBSTITUTION · 30' Chernihiv · On: M. Shumylo · Off: E. Galstyan
46′SECOND HALF Prykarpattia 0–0 Chernihiv
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Chernihiv · On: V. Koydan · Off: M. Serdyuk
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Prykarpattia
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Prykarpattia 0–1 Chernihiv
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Prykarpattia
FTFULL TIME Prykarpattia 0–1 Chernihiv
FTPrykarpattia 0–1 Chernihiv · Prykarpattia win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Prykarpattia win48%

Draw28%

Chernihiv win24%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 10:30

VenueMCS Rukh

Line-ups

Prykarpattia

Chernihiv

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Prykarpattia

Chernihiv

8Days since last match9

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Prykarpattia	10	+3	15
15	Chernihiv	9	−4	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Prykarpattia

Formation not confirmed

26 A. Bobynets

27 V. Chushenko

3 V. Frantsuz

30 S. Shvets

23 S. Demkiv

44 V. Runich

21 P. Mykhalchuk

88 M. Protsiv

10 M. Solovyov

77 O. Kos

9 M. Graban

Coach · –

Substitutes

24 · I. Pitsan

14 · V. Tsyutsyura

7 · Y. Radulsky

4 · V. Korol

19 · V. Kozenko

41 · M. Marusych

17 · M. Stadnik

34 · V. Genyk

29 · O. Vladyslav

99 · Y. Bespalko

8 · Y. Demchenko

95 · R. Rusyn

Chernihiv

Formation not confirmed

35 M. Tatarenko

12 Y. Kartushov

20 D. Fateev

55 A. Romanchenko

2 E. Galstyan

44 D. Plakhtyr

6 Y. Shalfeev

77 M. Serdyuk

15 D. Bezgubchenko

33 A. Porokhnya

11 A. Novikov

Coach · Vasyl Baranov

Substitutes

99 · D. Gerasymenko

3 · M. Shumylo

23 · O. Zenchenko

26 · D. Azizov

13 · S. Galoyan

10 · V. Koydan

7 · D. Myronenko

87 · V. Rogozynskyi

21 · D. Bezborodko

Our number · prykarpattia winPublished 11 Oct 10:36

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Prykarpattia a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Prykarpattia win	48%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Chernihiv win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Prykarpattia or draw	76%	–	–
Prykarpattia clean sheet	40%	–	–
Chernihiv clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.0%

0123450 10.2 8.2 4.1 1 13.0 12.7 5.7 2 9.6 8.7 4.0 3 4.7 4.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Prykarpattia down, Chernihiv across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,143 Persha Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Persha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Prykarpattia at home: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Chernihiv away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Prykarpattia, 0.93 for Chernihiv. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CHE 1–0 PRY · PRY 0–3 CHE · CHE 0–2 PRY · PRY 2–0 CHE

Form · last six in Persha Liga

PRYKARPATTIA

WDWWLD2–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–0

CHERNIHIV

DLWLLL2–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	11	+6	21
2	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	11	+4	20
3	Oleksandria	10	+8	19
4	SK Poltava	11	+8	18
5	Kulykiv	10	+9	17
6	Prykarpattia	10	+3	15
7	Yarud Mariupol'	10	+1	15
8	Metal Kharkiv	11	0	15
9	Inhulets	10	−2	14
10	Lokomotiv Kyiv	10	0	13
11	Kolos Kovalivka II	10	−6	12
12	Nyva Ternopil	10	0	11
13	UCSA	10	−3	10
14	Probiy Horodenka	11	−18	8
15	Chernihiv	9	−4	7
16	Polissya II	10	−6	7