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Probiy Horodenka v SK Poltava
Persha Liga · SAT 10 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said SK Poltava win at 55%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: SK Poltava was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 21–23–56
- 1′KICK-OFF Probiy Horodenka v SK Poltava
- 8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Probiy Horodenka 1–0 SK Poltava
- 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Probiy Horodenka 1–1 SK Poltava
- 22′V. Sad scores for SK Poltava on 13′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 21–28–51
- 25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Probiy Horodenka
- 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Probiy Horodenka 1–2 SK Poltava
- 38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Probiy Horodenka
- 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Probiy Horodenka 2–2 SK Poltava
- 42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' SK Poltava
- 43′Probiy Horodenka ahead on 41′ through V. Napuda. 2–2. 2–2 · 20–36–44
- 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' SK Poltava win: 55% at kick-off, 44% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Probiy Horodenka 2–2 SK Poltava
- 46′SECOND HALF Probiy Horodenka 2–2 SK Poltava
- 48′We said SK Poltava at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 2–2 · 19–39–42
- 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Probiy Horodenka 3–2 SK Poltava
- 67′I. Guk scores for Probiy Horodenka on 61′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 70–24–6
- 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' SK Poltava win: 55% at kick-off, 6% now
- 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Probiy Horodenka win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was SK Poltava win 6%)
- 84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Probiy Horodenka
- 89′We said SK Poltava at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 3–2 · 98–2–0
- 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' SK Poltava win: 55% at kick-off, 0% now
- 90′🟥 RED CARD · 93' SK Poltava
- FTFULL TIME Probiy Horodenka 3–2 SK Poltava
- FTProbiy Horodenka 3–2 SK Poltava · SK Poltava win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
Match updates
Recorded match details below.
Timeline
Events will appear when the match starts.
Pre-match prediction
Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15
Match information
SAT 10 OCT · 11:30
The game so far
Recorded statisticsMatch statistics
Match statistics are not available yet.
Players on the pitch
Recorded line-upsLine-ups
Probiy Horodenka
Formation not confirmed
31 K. Arkhypchuk
16 I. Guk
5 V. Savchyn
7 A. Savitskyi
13 V. Galonskyi
30 O. Lepskyi
18 A. Bliznichenko
98 A. Fesenko
6 V. Ivanychuk
21 M. Girnyi
19 V. Napuda
Coach · Volodymyr Kovalyuk
Substitutes
12 · V. Barabanov
25 · M. A. Kovalenko
44 · M. Batz
8 · B. Drygan
99 · D. Goncharuk
14 · K. Matveev
70 · S. Yaroshenko
56 · M. Borysenko
4 · A. Kozachuk
15 · R. Kharuk
10 · B. Orynchak
2 · V. Radulskyi
SK Poltava
Formation not confirmed
1 M. Minchev
2 M. Kononov
19 M. Buzhyn
22 D. Prikhna
8 V. Odaryuk
15 V. Danylenko
7 D. Galenkov
10 V. Sad
11 D. Kasimov
28 D. Blagodarnyi
17 B. Kobzar
Coach · Igor Tymchenko
Substitutes
96 · D. Yermolov
95 · I. Kotsyumaka
27 · D. Serbinov
21 · Y. Tlumak
20 · N. Krokhmal
5 · V. Pidlepych
88 · O. Vivdych
Match statistics
Match statistics are not available yet.
Line-ups
Probiy Horodenka
Formation not confirmed
31 K. Arkhypchuk
16 I. Guk
5 V. Savchyn
7 A. Savitskyi
13 V. Galonskyi
30 O. Lepskyi
18 A. Bliznichenko
98 A. Fesenko
6 V. Ivanychuk
21 M. Girnyi
19 V. Napuda
Coach · Volodymyr Kovalyuk
Substitutes
12 · V. Barabanov
25 · M. A. Kovalenko
44 · M. Batz
8 · B. Drygan
99 · D. Goncharuk
14 · K. Matveev
70 · S. Yaroshenko
56 · M. Borysenko
4 · A. Kozachuk
15 · R. Kharuk
10 · B. Orynchak
2 · V. Radulskyi
SK Poltava
Formation not confirmed
1 M. Minchev
2 M. Kononov
19 M. Buzhyn
22 D. Prikhna
8 V. Odaryuk
15 V. Danylenko
7 D. Galenkov
10 V. Sad
11 D. Kasimov
28 D. Blagodarnyi
17 B. Kobzar
Coach · Igor Tymchenko
Substitutes
96 · D. Yermolov
95 · I. Kotsyumaka
27 · D. Serbinov
21 · Y. Tlumak
20 · N. Krokhmal
5 · V. Pidlepych
88 · O. Vivdych
We make SK Poltava a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.8.
Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 60% to 56% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Probiy Horodenka win | 21% | 20% | +1 |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 0 |
| SK Poltava win | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 52% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 33% | −2 |
| Probiy Horodenka or draw | 45% | 44% | +1 |
| Probiy Horodenka clean sheet | 18% | – | – |
| SK Poltava clean sheet | 38% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
0 meetings since 2021No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.
Form · last six in Persha Liga
PROBIY HORODENKA
SK POLTAVA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 11 | +6 | 21 |
| 2 |  Oleksandria | 10 | +8 | 19 |
| 3 | SK Poltava | 10 | +9 | 18 |
| 4 |  Kulykiv | 10 | +9 | 17 |
| 5 |  Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 6 |  Prykarpattia | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 7 |  Yarud Mariupol' | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 8 |  Metal Kharkiv | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 |  Inhulets | 9 | −1 | 14 |
| 10 |  Lokomotiv Kyiv | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 |  Kolos Kovalivka II | 10 | −6 | 12 |
| 12 |  Nyva Ternopil | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 |  UCSA | 10 | −3 | 10 |
| 14 |  Chernihiv | 9 | −4 | 7 |
| 15 |  Polissya II | 10 | −6 | 7 |
| 16 | Probiy Horodenka | 10 | −19 | 5 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.