Probiy Horodenka v Polissya II prediction · Persha Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Probiy Horodenka 1–1 Polissya II PROBIY HORODENKA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Probiy Horodenka win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.870

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Probiy Horodenka win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Probiy Horodenka was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–24–38
1′KICK-OFF Probiy Horodenka v Polissya II
45′Polissya II score on 45′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 11–22–68
45′We said Probiy Horodenka at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–22–68
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Probiy Horodenka 0–1 Polissya II
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Probiy Horodenka win: 38% at kick-off, 11% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Polissya II win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Probiy Horodenka win 11%)
45′HALF-TIME Probiy Horodenka 0–1 Polissya II
46′43′: O. Ivanov on the scoresheet for Polissya II, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–22–68
46′SECOND HALF Probiy Horodenka 0–1 Polissya II
50′We said Probiy Horodenka at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Probiy Horodenka win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
60′Probiy Horodenka find the net on 60′. 1–1. 1–1 · 28–45–28
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Probiy Horodenka 1–1 Polissya II
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Probiy Horodenka win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Polissya II win 28%)
61′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–1 · 27–46–27
63′We said Probiy Horodenka at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–48–26
67′We said Probiy Horodenka at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–24
74′We said Probiy Horodenka at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–61–19
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Probiy Horodenka win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Probiy Horodenka win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
FTFULL TIME Probiy Horodenka 1–1 Polissya II
FTProbiy Horodenka 1–1 Polissya II · Probiy Horodenka win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Probiy Horodenka just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Probiy Horodenka 38%, draw 24%, Polissya II 38%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Probiy Horodenka v Polissya IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Probiy Horodenka win38%

Draw24%

Polissya II win38%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 12

Line-ups

Probiy Horodenka

Polissya II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Probiy Horodenka

Polissya II

8Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Persha Liga

Last match: 12 Oct · Persha Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Probiy Horodenka	11	−18	8
16	Polissya II	11	−8	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Probiy Horodenka

Formation not confirmed

31 K. Arkhypchuk

16 I. Guk

5 V. Savchyn

7 A. Savitskyi

13 V. Galonskyi

15 R. Kharuk

30 O. Lepskyi

98 A. Fesenko

18 A. Bliznichenko

21 M. Girnyi

19 V. Napuda

Coach · Volodymyr Kovalyuk

Substitutes

12 · V. Barabanov

25 · M. A. Kovalenko

44 · M. Batz

99 · D. Goncharuk

14 · K. Matveev

70 · S. Yaroshenko

2 · V. Radulskyi

8 · B. Drygan

4 · A. Kozachuk

10 · B. Orynchak

56 · M. Borysenko

9 · M. Burenko

Polissya II

Formation not confirmed

98 D. Talko

33 V. Mezentsev

62 M. Danfakha

53 D. Kondratiuk

94 D. Gryshkevych

88 B. Panchyshyn

72 V. Kramar

99 M. Rasko

25 O. Ivanov

97 M. Gryshchenko

75 I. Romanchuk

Coach · Oleksandr Maksymov

Substitutes

12 · A. Drobot

81 · I. Ally

66 · B. Tomandzoto

61 · J. W. Pires Correia Lima

41 · B. Kovalenko

21 · R. Babych

84 · S. Cherchukan

Our number · probiy horodenka winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:50 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Probiy Horodenka a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Probiy Horodenka v Polissya II~~1.62 – 1.62

~~Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 7~~15 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Probiy Horodenka win

Published at 36%, 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Probiy Horodenka win	38%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Polissya II win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Probiy Horodenka or draw	62%	–	–
Probiy Horodenka clean sheet	21%	–	–
Polissya II clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.7 6.1 5.2 2.8 1 6.2 10.5 8.0 4.3 2 5.2 8.0 6.3 3.4 3 2.9 4.4 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Probiy Horodenka down, Polissya II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,153 Persha Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Probiy Horodenka at home: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Polissya II away: 1.60 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Probiy Horodenka, 1.62 for Polissya II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PRO 3–1 POL · POL 1–0 PRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 5 Sept

PROBIY HORODENKA

LLLLWW0–6 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 3–2

POLISSYA II

DWLLDL1–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 3–3 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	12	+7	24
2	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	12	+5	23
3	SK Poltava	12	+12	21
4	Yarud Mariupol'	12	+5	21
5	Kulykiv	11	+11	20
6	Oleksandria	11	+6	19
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	11	+2	16
8	Metal Kharkiv	12	−1	15
9	Prykarpattia	12	−2	15
10	Nyva Ternopil	11	+2	14
11	Inhulets	11	−5	14
12	Kolos Kovalivka II	12	−8	13
13	UCSA	12	−4	11
14	Chernihiv	11	−4	10
15	Probiy Horodenka	11	−18	8
16	Polissya II	11	−8	7